Cascadia_Wx Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 (edited) 29 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Ouch! I stay away from things that have a high chance of bringing unneeded pain. Like pining for snow and cold in a warming climate? Edited November 19, 2022 by Cascadia_Wx 2 3 1 1 1 Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 (edited) 4 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: I don't think I have ever started a monthly thread. Maybe I should give it a shot for December and will be good luck. I'm already thinking of some potential titles like "We are all going to die December". I'm thinking we may as well not even make a monthly thread for January. Of course if we're all going to die in December then I guess we won't have to worry about that... Edited November 19, 2022 by BLI snowman 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 12 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Which is why I take all the long-range forecasts calling for this to be a standard, Niña-like winter with a big grain of salt. The first part of this month shows the chances are good we will go into typical Nina patterns at times. In the end this winter will not have a Nino look to it. SEA just got done with their coldest first half of November in over 60 years. Going to be an interesting ride. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Like pining for snow and cold in the western lowlands? You have a point there. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: I'm thinking we may as well not even make a monthly thread for January. Of course if we're all going to die in December then I guess we won't have to worry about that... Interestingly some of the signs we have seen this month show January may be our best month this winter. On the other hand the recent January curse cannot be ignored. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 Just now, snow_wizard said: Interestingly some of the signs we have seen this month show January may be our best month this winter. On the other hand the recent January curse cannot be ignored. We're obviously due for a crappy February. So that will probably happen since we can pretty much always count on at least paying our warm debts when it's time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 Looks like the models are coming around to a nice crash following the big Thanksgiving ridge. Hopefully we can settle into a consistently cool and active pattern for awhile after that. 2 1 2 Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The first part of this month shows the chances are good we will go into typical Nina patterns at times. In the end this winter will not a Nino look to it. SEA just got done with their coldest first half of November in over 60 years. Going to be an interesting ride. The first part of the month shows what happened in the first part of the month. What happens the rest of the winter, nobody knows yet. But there is plenty of evidence from recent months that we are not in typical La Niña territory, so it would seem unwise to conclude we are in for a typical La Niña winter. 2 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 26.4F this morning. Not quite as cold as we got during the cold snap earlier this month. Which makes sense, we pretty much always do better here with a cold airmass overhead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Interestingly some of the signs we have seen this month show January may be our best month this winter. On the other hand the recent January curse cannot be ignored. You have come quite close to getting the goods in January recently. (Those of us to your north have gotten them.) 1 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: The first part of the month shows what happened in the first part of the month. What happens the rest of the winter, nobody knows yet. But there is plenty of evidence from recent months that we are not in typical La Niña territory, so it would seem unwise to conclude we are in for a typical La Niña winter. I never said it will be typical Nina. I just think it's exceedingly unlikely it will be Nino like. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 Severe clear and 45 here. Only 4 nights with a below freezing temp here this month and it's been above freezing since Monday morning. Strange to have any leaves on the trees as we go into late November. The mountains look much more bare as well compared to when we left. 3 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 Just 1.6” of rain here through the first 2/3rds of November. I’ll look into it later today but I can’t remember any November being close to this dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 Tonight is going to be the fun one for a lot of people. Rapid decouple and rapid crash early with weak offshore gradients. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 19 at CVO this morning! 18 at EUG! Wouldn’t be surprised if this ends up being the coldest morning of the entire winter. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Just 1.6” of rain here through the first 2/3rds of November. I’ll look into it later today but I can’t remember any November being close to this dry. 2019? We had just 1.83” of rain that month. Already at 2.12” this month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Phil Posted November 19, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 25 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Which is why I take all the long-range forecasts calling for this to be a standard, Niña-like winter with a big grain of salt. Might not see a “standard” niña pattern until late Jan or early Feb. This doesn’t account for any potential SSW/deeper NAM flip before then, of course. Another round of potent blocking seems likely starting mid-Dec as MJO returns to IPWP/WPAC, after a transient zonal flow pattern late Nov/early Dec. Would not surprise me if 80% or more of the CONUS is in the deep freeze during the holiday season this year, with a large ridge over Alaska. Would be very different from previous years. 5 2 1 3 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 GFS ensembles looking pretty decent 4 2 1 Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Tonight is going to be the fun one for a lot of people. Rapid decouple and rapid crash early with weak offshore gradients. Looks pretty breezy here tonight into tomorrow morning per the 12Z ECMWF. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Looks pretty breezy here tonight into tomorrow morning per the 12Z ECMWF. I think I burned a half tank of gas driving over the pass this morning going against that wind 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 The 12Z ECMWF does not show any rain making it inland with the initial system tomorrow night... but the clouds come in early and temps stay around 40 in the Seattle area into Monday morning. Then the clouds break up and its partly to mostly sunny on Monday with highs in the low to mid 50s. 1 1 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsktkr Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 31 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: I don't think I have ever started a monthly thread. Maybe I should give it a shot for December and will be good luck. I'm already thinking of some potential titles like "We are all going to die December". How about...."La Nina is the new El Nino December" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 Pre dawn temps on Monday morning and afternoon highs per 12Z ECMWF... 1 2 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Severe clear and 45 here. Only 4 nights with a below freezing temp here this month and it's been above freezing since Monday morning. Strange to have any leaves on the trees as we go into late November. The mountains look much more bare as well compared to when we left. I remember most of the leaves were still on the trees when we got 8” of snow in November of 1996, that was odd to see! 2 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 Rain! Tuesday. 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 Think it would be better for all of us if Musk just let him back on Twitter at this point 1 2 2 3 1 Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 Thanksgiving day... pretty crazy. 1 1 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 got down to 9 at the house last night currently 25 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 13 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Think it would be better for all of us if Musk just let him back on Twitter at this point cool kidz are all on Mastodon now 1 1 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 3 hours ago, TT-SEA said: Just turned it on... thanks for the heads up. Its nice to see them going to the small schools. And it looks absolutely frigid. I can feel the pain through my screen! It’s not so bad Tim, you’d love it! Only dropped down to -16F at BZN this morning! 3 3 Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 Pretty interesting to note that 1929 had weather like this in November also. Another example of it happening with a Nino. Of course that one led to the very cold January 1930. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 2 hours ago, snow_wizard said: WTF is going on with Jesse? Puking on Jan 1937 and now this? Maybe because very cold weather is often very dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 20, 30, 15, 12, hike. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 31 minutes ago, MossMan said: I remember most of the leaves were still on the trees when we got 8” of snow in November of 1996, that was odd to see! Our trees took a crash course in going bare this year. Nearly two weeks of freezing nights and the recent windstorm has made an amazing transformation here over the last week. Abolutley terrible fall color this year. First it was too dry and warm and then it got cold too suddenly. 2 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 On 11/17/2022 at 8:35 PM, Meatyorologist said: 46F in DT Seattle, 29F in Meadowbrook. Temp spread is super impressive! Meadowbrook has an epic cold microclimate. 1 1 Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 Lol today was the coldest day at EUG since Jan 2017. Pathetic and depressing. Cannot wait to move my family away from here. Has it taken anyone else here almost 6 years to have a return low temp take that long to come around? We "only" got down to 20F here so we are still yet to see ours. Got down to 19F last winter but not colder. Damn variability. 1 2 2 2 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: Maybe because very cold weather is often very dry. I can't imagine anyone on this forum not liking January 1937 though. That winter was a real rarity. A cold / snowy winter without all of the nastiness around it. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Lol today was the coldest day at EUG since Jan 2017. Pathetic and depressing. Cannot wait to move my family away from here. We "only" got down to 20F here so we are still yet to see ours. D**n variability. 1 1 1 Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 7 minutes ago, joelgombiner said: Meadowbrook has an epic cold microclimate. Where is that? 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Lol today was the coldest day at EUG since Jan 2017. Pathetic and depressing. Cannot wait to move my family away from here. Has it taken anyone else here almost 6 years to have a return low temp take that long to come around? We "only" got down to 20F here so we are still yet to see ours. Damn variability. You have seriously not gotten below 20 since Jan 2017? That is surprising. 2 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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