SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Could be a big event in NorCal. 3 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Another decently snowy run down in Oregon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 PDX Snow. 850s cool to -7c with east wind. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 2 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said: Where to, gumshoe? Houston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Nice to see the GFS keeping that weird feature swinging up from NorCal bringing snow to the W. Valley. Not hedging my bets, but an interesting progression if we can get even some weak offshore flow. 3 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Tim gonna get buried. Non event for most of us. Even up here I doubt this rivals early November. I don't think so. ECMWF shows 925 temps around +2C or +3C with a SW wind during the heaviest precip on Wednesday. GFS is just being silly. Remember it showed 20+ inches for snow for Portland at one point in early November. And buried Seattle on a few runs. None of it happened. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 2nd run in a row to eject the low up through Central Oregon with widespread snow across most of Oregon and eastern Washington . 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 The 00z bombs the low 30mb from 1007mb to 977mb in just 18 hours. That would be a very unusual progression for a low sliding SE down the Eastern edge of a ridge. You’d expect that kind of strengthening from a low coming in from the WSW on a strong jet. Doesn’t mean it won’t happen. But it is unusual. 2 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, MossMan said: Mind posting a map? How does it look just to your south? This is the best zoom I have, but you look like you're just on the southern edge of the strong band that supposedly is going to pop up tomorrow night. 2 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 00z GFS Day 6: 4 Run Trend: 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: ICON snow by early Thursday morning Germans on our side now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Too much time and emotion being invested in yet another rug pull courtesy of the ECMWF. Oh well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Here are 925 temps at 4 a.m. on Wednesday morning per the 18Z ECMWF... and the line is moving north at that time. This is not a set up that buries my area. 1 2 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said: This is the best zoom I have, but you look like you're just on the southern edge of the strong band that supposedly is going to pop up tomorrow night. Thanks! Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Here are 925 temps at 4 a.m. on Wednesday morning per the 18Z ECMWF... and the line is moving north at that time. This is not a set up that buries my area. Nor Seattle. Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 00z GFS Day 6: 4 Run Trend: 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Call me delusional but I still feel like some of those late week lows may be in play. Especially if we can get one to track across Southern Oregon while offshore flow kicks up over the valley. It's not an especially strong cold pool-- but it's there nonetheless. 3 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: The 00z bombs the low 30mb from 1007mb to 977mb in just 18 hours. That would be a very unusual progression for a low sliding SE down the Eastern edge of a ridge. You’d expect that kind of strengthening from a low coming in from the WSW on a strong jet. Doesn’t mean it won’t happen. But it is unusual. Interesting. Models might struggle with this pattern right until until 24hrs out Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 13 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Still not even close to sold on that snowstorm for Seattle. Makes no climatological sense and has no precedent as far as I am aware. Reminds me of the snows predicted for 1/2/2022. Yeah this is starting to remind me of that setup as well with how borderline this is. I still managed 2 inches in an hour from that. Crazy snowfall rate that was dragging that snow level down and it only lasted for that hour as well. 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 51 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Cats Meow Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, JSnowlin said: Too much time and emotion being invested in yet another rug pull courtesy of the ECMWF. Oh well. It's not a rug pull. The models just have a hard time with the low dropping south and developing over the water off the BC Coast. Happens all the time in the winter. Could still change yet again but as things get closer it seems unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 What a night. Model suckage and the Cougars are leading the Huskies 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 If the GFS does what I think it's trying to do, I'm gonna lose it Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyMaestro Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Pardon my amateur layperson, why is it bad if the low bombs out? Nor'easters along the Atlantic bomb out and give snowstorms along the East Coast? Or is that just wildly different from what's happening here? 1 𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮𝘴, 𝘐 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘯. 𝘗𝘶𝘺𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘱. Reddit: HotlineMaestro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Great run for PDX/Oregon. Cold air stuck in place Gorge/East with east winds. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 29 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Full on bombogenesis on the 00z GFS. Low bombs to 976mb. Not what you want to see. Yep this one is about done. Don't like how things look for even here now. 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 00z GFS Day 8: 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said: Pardon my amateur layperson, why is it bad if the low bombs out? Nor'easters along the Atlantic bomb out and give snowstorms along the East Coast? Or is that just wildly different from what's happening here? We are wrong side of the bomb on this coast... it usually means SW flow for the Seattle area. 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weiner Warrior Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 A little more to freshen up the snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Cats Meow Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: We are wrong side of the bomb on this coast... it usually means SW flow for the Seattle area. what he said lots of southerly flow until the low sinks south of the area we need to thread the needle around here and this time it doesn't look like it will work out for us maybe later in the week a disturbance will slide by to the south and pull some some cold air and mix with some light precipitation flowing north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said: Pardon my amateur layperson, why is it bad if the low bombs out? Nor'easters along the Atlantic bomb out and give snowstorms along the East Coast? Or is that just wildly different from what's happening here? On the East Coast, Nor’Easters bomb out offshore to the East of the major cities. Their counter clockwise motion sucks arctic air into the storm from their NW keeping the cities cold and snowy. The opposite happens here since the counter clockwise motion of a bombing low to our West pushes milder SW onshore flow into our area. 8 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Models are giving a harsh reminder not to spike the football too early. And how fickle the details can be, even in the very near term. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Steady stream of liquid precipitation over Victoria this evening. It looks like there's a strong rain shadow over the east coast of the island with this WNW flow. There's another band hung up over North Vancouver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Looking like a somewhat decent run for the Portland area and a long run of chilly temps 1 1 1 2 Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Bloody cold GFS run. I just hope that shot of snow works out for the Seattle area on Wednesday. If so there will be some happy people on here. Stays cold after that! 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Just now, Cascadia_Wx said: Looking like a somewhat decent run for the Portland area and a long run of chilly temps WTF? Why the puke? 1 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Bingo! Jet suppression! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 00z GFS Day 9: 1 1 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: WTF? Why the puke? https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/sarcasm 1 Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Bloody cold GFS run. I just hope that shot of snow works out for the Seattle area on Wednesday. If so there will be some happy people on here. Stays cold after that! Is it cold enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 GEM puts a nice AR into SW Oregon. 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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