PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Doinko]

Cold east wind on this run

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

We're just looking at fine details at this point.. which will change over and over again next few days. But it seems like the overall consensus is that the arctic front will drop over us. 

For sure... this is much better than big westward shift that blocks the arctic air.   Arctic fronts always end up snowier than the models show.

[Front Ranger]

26 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Nope!!! But we probably have El Chichón to partially thank for the fun 1983-85 stretch. Back to back to back winters with pretty sexy and long lasting regional cold anomalies for at least a month, which hasn't been achieved since. 

Dec 2008 and Dec 2009 wouldn't count?

[Doinko]

Looks like a snowstorm on this run

 

[Front Ranger]

GLANCING BLOW.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, Gradient Keeper said:

January 2004 was exceptional, and a day before that event it also wasn't looking to persist as long. They rarely if ever do until we're into the infancy stages of it, and then the models play catch up with the low level cold/CAA it seems. If we can somehow manage a snow covered Columbia Basin, Gorge that would pay off tremendously.

Even when in the thick of that event, for days the official forecast was: trust us, temperatures are going to moderate Real Soon Now, the thaw will be on tomorrow.

[Cloud]

snowstorm!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Looks like a snowstorm on this run

 

Finally brings in the snow... 3 days later than the ECMWF/EPS.     I would go with the ECMWF/EPS at this point.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

GLANCING BLOW.

Yup.

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Dec 2008 and Dec 2009 wouldn't count?

Back to back to back. 2008-09 and 2009-10 both had impressive Decembers, but 2007-08 and 2010-11 didn't offer anything top tier in terms of monthly cold anomalies. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This run is a piece of fart.

[Doinko]

Just now, Cloud said:

snowstorm!

Southerly flow does moderate temps quickly though

[Guest administrator]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Southerly flow does moderate temps quickly though

Get in the trebuchet.

[Doinko]

Major snowstorm for the central sound up the SW BC on this run and then some ice for Portland

 

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Back to back to back. 2008-09 and 2009-10 both had impressive Decembers, but 2007-08 and 2010-11 didn't offer anything top tier in terms of monthly cold anomalies. 

Ah, missed the third back.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Major snowstorm for the central sound up the SW BC on this run and then some ice for Portland

 

17.9, noice! I told you it was going to trend north.

[Snownerd3000]

3 minutes ago, administrator said:

Get in the trebuchet.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ugly 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Devasting trends. Arctic air is cancelled for the PNW

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Like Matt said, the undercutting potential with this will be off the rails crazy. Look at that high pressure up there. 

[Nov1985]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Devasting trends. Arctic air is cancelled for the PNW

 Number of hours since GFS proved its irrelevance: 0 

[OysterPrintout]

Feels like sometimes the ol 18z GFS would be a harbinger of doom as the GFS was typically a run or 2 or 3 behind the euro before it would bend the knee but on occasion it would pick up on something that would follow through on the 00z run and then euro would unfortunately follow suit.

These days just feels like the GFS is at least a day behind and random runs just flail wildly in the mid-range. For sure the whole thing could go to crap but at least for me it doesn't feel like the days where you'd grit your teeth at the sight of it.

[Deweydog]

Might need an ice pick and blow torch in the gorge.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

Look at the huge temp contrast of southerly flow vs east winds right around Portland. 

 

 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z CFS has a huge arctic outbreak the end of the 2nd week of January too. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Step back on the ensembles too. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

80 for LA on Christmas Day?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

9 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Look at the huge temp contrast of southerly flow vs east winds right around Portland. 

 

 

 

 

More 50-burgers for Tiger, too!

[Phishy Wx]

well I guess it's good the waffleing is on the Druncle

[TacomaWx]

I’m not going to get too excited about this event still but it’s good that the gfs is on its own for now on this. Gfs/gefs is right sometimes but most of the time I’d bet against it. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

80 for LA on Christmas Day?

Either that or a blizzard closing the I-5 Grapevine. Time will tell.

[Deweydog]

We’re losing the Andrew.

[WeatherGeek2022]

12 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Look at the huge temp contrast of southerly flow vs east winds right around Portland. 

 

 

 

 

looks like a nasty warm up 

[Nov1985]

GEFS Monday morning, past 6 runs.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

it's the 18z.

[Mid Valley Duck]

Losing your mind over the 18z GEFS when it changed this much in one day.

[Winterdog]

We are descending slowly towards a moderating reality.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

4 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

GEFS Monday morning, past 6 runs.

 

So it's the 2nd best run of the last 6 and probably even the last 10 or more, and it's devastating?

[weatherwonder]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

it's the 18z.

It’s Coming!

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

In all seriousness, a major cold snap in this timeframe does historically make a very cold January quite unlikely. Doesn't mean it couldn't remain somewhat chilly or occasionally snowy, but none of the big December 15-25 focused arctic air masses in the last century had another big event in January (2008, 1998, 1990, 1983, 1964, 1924). 

Wow. Can’t believe you brought this up. Expect a snarky comment from “administrator” for bringing these facts up.