PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[MWG]

NWS Medford...welp 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

21 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Works for me  

They’re talking about the beginning of the week

[umadbro]

Just watched Michael Snyders video. Seems like he’s leaning toward the euro.

[TT-SEA]

Lack of an arctic front means WAY more snow up here.   

[MossMan]

11 minutes ago, dhoffine said:

I just got done telling my wife all about an arctic blast next week, and now I come back on and I get a little sense of dread from the forums?  is the rug pulling?

Well December 1958 suddenly got thrown around and Mr. Snowmizer quit the forum but other than that we are still looking good. At least in Wa State. 

[FroYoBro]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Lack of an arctic front means WAY more snow up here.   

[Terreboner]

How does one go about recommending their own post?  Notice Admin is recommending Admin.  Weird, wild stuff.

[WildrootParable]

I notice Mr. Snowmizer was true to his word and didn't comment since earlier, and that's a shame because as far as I can tell he's the closest equivalent to my location and I keep an eye on the things he says to guage my own enthusiasm. I hope he comes back. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Well December 1958 suddenly got thrown around and Mr. Snowmizer quit the forum but other than that we are still looking good. At least in Wa State. 

I don't know what happened.   It almost certain next week is going to be straight up crazy... regardless of random analogs.

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't know what happened.   It almost certain next week is going to be straight up crazy... regardless of random analogs.

Probably Everett north at best.

[SnowWillarrive]

Just now, Terreboner said:

Probably Everett north at best.

Actually looks fine from Olympia north. 

[MossMan]

When the snow forecast went to garage I went and spent a few days at my moms when she still lived on Moses Lake. It was amazing over there. 

[OysterPrintout]

5 minutes ago, WildrootParable said:

I notice Mr. Snowmizer was true to his word and didn't comment since earlier, and that's a shame because as far as I can tell he's the closest equivalent to my location and I keep an eye on the things he says to guage my own enthusiasm. I hope he comes back. 

everyone comes back

[Phishy Wx]

NWS Spokane:

As we move into the weekend, this is when the forecast starts to 
become quite tricky. Deterministic models and ensembles are in 
pretty solid agreement that a low pressure system originating from 
the arctic to slide down the eastern edge of this ridge and stalling 
over British Columbia. The uncertainty lies on how far south this 
arctic boundary will push into the Pacific Northwest. There is 
nearly an even split among the ensembles on how this weekend into 
next week will pan out with about a third of the ensembles keep 
ridging over the region, which would result in temperatures below 
seasonal averages, but warmer that the rest of the solutions through 
the next week and light snow. Another third brings the boundary into 
the region, with widespread very cold temperatures and snow, and 
another third suggesting relatively cold temperatures but brings in 
a bit more snow compared to the other scenarios. Given this degree 
of uncertainty, kept temperatures as the current NBM forecast along 
with chances for snow Sunday through Tuesday. This forecast will 
more than likely change many times as we time goes on, but the 
main message remains the same, cold temperatures along with 
chances for snow by the end of the weekend into next week. /vmt 

[SouthHillFrosty]

11 minutes ago, WildrootParable said:

I notice Mr. Snowmizer was true to his word and didn't comment since earlier, and that's a shame because as far as I can tell he's the closest equivalent to my location and I keep an eye on the things he says to guage my own enthusiasm. I hope he comes back. 

What did he say? I missed it

[TT-SEA]

Just a reminder... the 12Z ECMWF showed almost everyone gets snow.   I don't think it's fair to just say nothing will happen farther south.   

[yellowstone]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Just a reminder... the 12Z ECMWF showed almost everyone gets snow.   I don't think it's fair to just say nothing will happen farther south.   

Yes but how am I supposed to enjoy measly 11 inches when I know some people are getting…checks notes… 87.6?

[Cloud]

Lots of hesitation still and rightfully so.

 

[Kolk1604]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

What did he say? I missed it

https://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/15676-pnw-december-2022-winter-might-be-coming-but-mostly-canceled/&do=findComment&comment=1032129

[bainbridgekid]

Apparently starting with tonight’s 00z WRF run the 1.33km resolution will be run all the way to 240 hours.

So now we get to see an ultra high resolution image of what definitely won’t happen.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Amazing to think this week will likely be colder than next. 

[Phil]

4 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Do we have a chance in January?

January will likely start out with +PNA. Not sure how mid/late month will evolve, would depend on the strat and degree of IO forcing relative to the WPAC.

[WildrootParable]

6 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Not my fault and I'm done posting comments in this thread.

 

@SouthHillFrosty To me it seemed to come out of nowhere; I didn't see a buildup to this. But I think someone added the context later that he was getting annoyed with the negativity. 

[lowlandsnow]

GFS and GEM look bad for Portland but very good for Seattle

[rsktkr]

26 minutes ago, WildrootParable said:

I notice Mr. Snowmizer was true to his word and didn't comment since earlier, and that's a shame because as far as I can tell he's the closest equivalent to my location and I keep an eye on the things he says to guage my own enthusiasm. I hope he comes back. 

Why did he quit?

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

January will likely start out with +PNA. Not sure how mid/late month will evolve, would depend on the strat and degree of IO forcing relative to the WPAC.

I thought you said we didn’t need a -PNA to score?

[TacomaWx]

 

[Phil]

3 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Every Judah gets his day.

I’ll take it. Big mid/late December cold is a great sign here during La Niña winters. The torchy niña winters begin tipping their hand right about now.

[joelgombiner]

Beautiful day today. Caught some great views of Rainier and the Cascades. 

[Cold Snap]

Down to 33 already. May get down to the mid 20s tonight here.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I thought you said we didn’t need a -PNA to score?

Correct. But blocking over AK/-EPO would be a prerequisite in that case. Or fluky evolutions like February 2021, which was driven by a retrograding -NAO.

[The Winter Warlock]

Went to Costco and grabbed a DJI Mini 2 to prepare for the 3 ft. of snow and ice Hoth landscape that is to come. Should be good.

 

 

 

[Mid Valley Duck]

Team NAM!

[lowlandsnow]

Any predictions for snow totals and temps?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just a reminder... the 12Z ECMWF showed almost everyone gets snow.   I don't think it's fair to just say nothing will happen farther south.   

We’re about a week out or so before the arrival of the Arctic air. Still a lot can change but anybody from Eugene North is still in play. Going to be a fun few days ahead model riding this event!  

[joelgombiner]

If you want to feel cold, track the Yakutsk weather station in Russia. Down to -54. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UEEE&hours=168

[WildrootParable]

13 minutes ago, rsktkr said:

Why did he quit?

I'm not entirely sure. I think there were some nuances at play that I missed, since I'm newer around here. But as I've noticed that he's been a big force for optimism about this upcoming event, I think some of the negativity earlier today was starting to bother him, perhaps? 

[joelgombiner]

1 minute ago, WildrootParable said:

I'm not entirely sure. I think there were some nuances at play that I missed, since I'm newer around here. But as I've noticed that he's been a big force for optimism about this upcoming event, I think some of the negativity earlier today was starting to bother him, perhaps? 

I don't get the negativity. Big snows and cold are fun, but if you can't enjoy rain and typical PNW weather, you should move to a different location. 

[SnarkyGoblin]

3 minutes ago, WildrootParable said:

I'm not entirely sure. I think there were some nuances at play that I missed, since I'm newer around here. But as I've noticed that he's been a big force for optimism about this upcoming event, I think some of the negativity earlier today was starting to bother him, perhaps? 

Jesse can alienate even the nicest among us.

[Nov1985]

22 minutes ago, WildrootParable said:

@SouthHillFrosty To me it seemed to come out of nowhere; I didn't see a buildup to this. But I think someone added the context later that he was getting annoyed with the negativity. 

He should just login at night. This place is cranky and petulant in the mornings.