PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Fircrest]

6 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

All you had to do was pick out his key words, southern movement, cold air, timeframe, and he was D**n good at it.  He would look so far upstream on live satellite loops and put together a decent forecast of the cold air, quite impressive sometimes.

If I remember correctly, he would talk a lot about "main and broader cold" and the movement of it.  Very cryptic at times but fascinating.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

Mid-50s at 4am on Christmas morning. 

[Omegaraptor]

27 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That’s the biggest bummer to me. Looks like our period of chilly weather is over by the middle of next week. Then It’s going to be a waiting game to see when (if) it comes back. Just in time for juneary. 

Yeah... probably heading to Mt Hood on Saturday to get in my winter fix. Probably gonna need it with Sunriver's weather outlook looking increasingly grim for wanting a winter fix out there. Although if things stay clear and don't go too zonal I guess we could manage some fake cold at least.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Welp, the GFS sucked, GEM was mid, Icon sucked

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Mid-50s at 4am on Christmas morning. 

Talk about a lump of coal in our stockings! 

[Mid Valley Duck]

Comes down to the euro. If it’s not good, then it’s getting late early.

[Cloud]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The problem is pretty much every model is trending in the direction of the GFS… 

This model?

 

 

[Requiem]

We will see if the EURO sticks to its guns. Hopefully! But some part of me fully expects it to cave tonight.

[RentonHill]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Talk about a lump of coal in our stockings! 

sooner it blows up sooner we get to january. i'm all for it! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

sooner it blows up sooner we get to january. i'm all for it! 

If it works like that then I’ll take it. 

[Phishy Wx]

10 minutes ago, Requiem said:

So someone more knowledgeable than me please explain-- I know the GFS is garbage, but why are short term improvements begetting longer term garbage?

I think its here at Day 6 into Day 7,  the Polar lobe stretches east and bridges with eastern trough.  the pseudo-ridge in the south central states is beaten down and our lobe slides off southeast allowing us to pop a massive ridge on the west coast

 

[WildrootParable]

3 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

If I remember correctly, he would talk a lot about "main and broader cold" and the movement of it.  Very cryptic at times but fascinating.

I'm delighted by the idea that Jedi-esque experts like Richard lurk in forums, speaking in riddles, yet somehow make perfect sense. Who knows how many more like him are out there, anonymous beings of great arcane wisdom in their chosen field?  Love it. There's a movie in there somewhere. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Great Seattle AFD tonight and one of the old timers at the nws is retired after tonight.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Ouch....

[MossMan]

10 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall, Ice(freezing rain) totals

I’m in the 1st shade of Pepto!! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Ouch....

Now what? 

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Ouch....

A new development to compound on our continued pain? 

[Terreboner]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Now what? 

Euro Telekinesis 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Not good

[Jbolin]

9 hours ago, JSnowlin said:

Are you really that dense Jesse? 

Apparently.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Now what? 

Acid reflux

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, JSnowlin said:

Apparently.

Wow, hold a grudge much....

[Mid Valley Duck]

Randy shared this on Facebook. But thought it’d be good to put here too. It’s a complicated pattern

 

[Phishy Wx]

Survivor season finale is on.  there someone named Jesse

[snow_wizard]

You have to like how the first act is trending colder and colder in the home stretch.  Very good sign.

[LowerGarfield]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

Survivor season finale is on.  there someone named Jesse

No spoilers please. I watch on Thursdays on Paramount.

[snow_wizard]

19 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Welp, the GFS sucked, GEM was mid, Icon sucked

You didn't see all of the cold and snow early next week?

[snow_wizard]

Kind of slow considering the huge improvement on the GFS for the early part of next week.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Wow, we really lost the GFS ensemble support. Didn’t expect to see such a dramatic swing in just one run. This sucks 

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You didn't see all of the cold and snow early next week?

Yea but that is quickly turning into the whole event. Ik it’s the GFS but it lost all major ensemble support tonight. I’m playing my faith in the Euro

[Poulsbo Snowman]

GFS at it again?  Did you have to reset the forum?

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yea but that is quickly turning into the whole event. Ik it’s the GFS but it lost all major ensemble support tonight. I’m playing my faith in the Euro

You don't think it's likely that will change?

[SouthHillFrosty]

Alright, that’s it for me. Can’t trust the GEM or GFS. I’ll be back for the Euro. Just need a quick break!

[snow_wizard]

Being real, just a few days of cold and more snow would be fantastic considering what we've already had and most of the winter still being ahead of us.  I think the second act could still work out also.  The first act has been revived from the ash heap on the last couple of runs.

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

You don't think it's likely that will change?

I think it’s obviously going to change. I’m just shocked that snow totals are 50% less on the 00z then the 18z. That surprised me greatly. 

[MossMan]

I think we lost Frosty! 
 

Down to 29! 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I think it’s obviously going to change. I’m just shocked that snow totals are 50% less on the 00z then the 18z. That surprised me greatly. 

The pleasant surprise is how much better the early stuff has gotten.  Might be good to focus on that for now.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, MossMan said:

I think we lost Frosty! 
 

Down to 29! 

30 here.  A nice cold night!

[snow_wizard]

Looking at the 500mb level for the second act it's pretty obvious to see how easily it could trend better again.

[kokaneekidz]

48 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Talk about a lump of coal in our stockings! 

Break out the Hawaiian shirts and mai tais