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PNW December 2022 - Part II

Guest hawkstwelve

By Guest hawkstwelve
in West of the Rockies

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Posted by Brian_in_Leavenworth,

PSA: The NWS always appreciates observations, especially detailed observations that everyone on here is capable of giving.  That can be done thru Twitter, as they often set up a feed for that, or the mPing app.  That can include final snowfall amounts, when the snow starts/stops, precip type, dew point, etc This helps them with short term forecasts as well as future forecasts as they can learn from them.  A few years ago they had a freezing rain advisory for Leavenworth, but I notified

IOS Link:https://apps.apple.com/us/app/mping/id584383400 Android: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=edu.ou.cimms.mping&hl=en_US&gl=US&pli=1

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TeacherLori
TeacherLori

We continue to have gently wafting snowflakes all morning here in Lynnwood, which allows for one of my all-time favorite hobbies.😍❄️

VancouverIslandSouth
VancouverIslandSouth

Picked up about another inch this evening. Some of the roads are starting to get some legitimate snow banks. Also, noticing more cars nearly completely covered

Brennan
Brennan

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted
Just now, TT-SEA said:

World Cup final is insane... France just tied it again with only 2 minutes left in first OT.

Wow… How insane. Who will get the Budweiser?

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
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Chatting on messenger with a PDX area met who posts here occasionally. He thinks 30-32 for PDX metro is a good bet for highs on Thursday, upper 20s out toward Troutdale. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Cascadia_Wx Grand Master

Cascadia_Wx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Yeah, 850’s dropped to around -13c with that on the 29th I believe, but it isn’t a terrible analog. That thing lost it’s blocking support pretty early on and ended up racing eastward once it made it just south of the border followed by a decent undercut/-EPO period.

Right now the bottom end for PDX on the latest (06z) Euro run is -8.5C on Wednesday. Although that’s on the colder end of most operational runs.

Of course things are warming at 850mb pretty quickly around the time the low level cold is progged to start flooding in, but I would assume 12/68 followed a similar pattern.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

UkMet

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Skagit Weather Veteran

Skagit Weather

Posted
Posted

39F with a southwesterly breeze. Most of the models are looking great up here this week which is always a little worrying this many days out, but it seems like I should at least get a little snow out of it.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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Seattle Proficient

Seattle

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

World Cup final is insane... France just tied it again with only 2 minutes left in first OT.

I have been at a bar since 6:30. This has been an insane game. The rug pulls and pushes honestly mirror that of the models this week.

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2022-23 Winter:

11/29: .25" + 1" = 1.25" | 11/30: .25"

12/2: .2" + .5" = .7" | 12/3: .2" | 12/4: trace

12/18: .4" | 12/19: .2" + .8" = 1.0" | 12/20: .2 + 1.5" = 1.7

1/31: trace | 2/14: trace | 2/22: .2 | 2/26: 1.0"

Total: 6.7"

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Right now the bottom end for PDX on the latest (06z) Euro run is -8.5C on Wednesday. Although that’s on the colder end of most operational runs.

Of course things are warming at 850mb pretty quickly around the time the low level cold is progged to start flooding in, but I would assume 12/68 followed a similar pattern.

Yeah, the low level gradient ratcheted up as the upper levels began to warm with about a 24 hour delay. That event also had the precip dynamic going for it. Without it, PDX probably “only” advects  into the mid teens or so.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Perturbed Member Grand Master

Perturbed Member

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Some sneaky good trends for PDX metro on the GFS, GEM and UKMET for later this week.

That cold pool before the transition event is indeed trending deeper and it is getting really close to holding a snow sounding. I have been looking at the soundings every run and this is a trend for sure. In fact the predicted precip types on these soundings are now saying snow at onset. That rapid warm up of the 850s before precip onset has been scaling back across all models. Even last nights 00z Euro had PDX starting with some light snow. 

If this trend continues a bit more, it could get pretty interesting. Budget Jan 2004?  I feel models do often underestimate the depth of the cold pool over PDX during strong gorge outflow events and moderate us a bit too quick once things really get entrenched so this could be really interesting. 

GFS

prateptype_cat.us_nw.png

gfs_2022121812_114_45.5--122.75.png

 

prateptype.us_nw.png

gdps_2022121812_108_45.45--122.85.png

 

The UKMET looks similar and now even gives PDX 2-3 inches before switching to all sleet

sn10_024h.us_nw.png

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