PNW December 2022 - Part II

[The Cats Meow]

I'm going with Everett north for the heavy good snow.

Everyone else get snow to rain to snow and maybe a cold day.

Then back to the rain.

The European is usually correct on game days.

 

[Meatyorologist]

Next person to instigate is on mod preview until 12pm Saturday! 

[Doinko]

8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

January 20, 1954 seems like the best analog down here. Bit before most of our time. 

PDX pulled of a 24/19 day with that, do you think something like that would be possible for this event?

[Front Ranger]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Up here there is an outside chance we see our coldest temp since December 2013. Our coldest temp since then was 12 in January 2017. Seems like most of the models have us in the 10-15 range when the cold air advects in Thursday morning. We warm up faster than valley locations will, but that’s our opportunity to put up some impressive cold stats. Will be interesting to see. We don’t have much precedent for sudden temp drops with a push of arctic air like the models are showing. 

It's not a great setup for most places to see really cold lows, since there will probably won't be a clear/calm night with deep snowfall. I guess north of Seattle early Wed morning or late that night would be best opportunity.

[jakerepp]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Next person to instigate is on mod preview until 12pm Saturday! 

What if I instigate some Christmas cheer?

 

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, jakerepp said:

What if I instigate some Christmas cheer?

 

@Meatyorologist don't go back on your word please. 

[MikeInEverett]

Up to 30 and some of the dusting from this morning has melted. It’s over!

[RentonHill]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Next person to instigate is on mod preview until 12pm Saturday! 

[Snownerd3000]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Next person to instigate is on mod preview until 12pm Saturday! 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

It's not a great setup for most places to see really cold lows, since there will probably won't be a clear/calm night with deep snowfall. I guess north of Seattle early Wed morning or late that night would be best opportunity.

I agree. Which is why I have a hard time seeing PDX falling below 20, though a number of models have them falling into the mid teens. 

[Snownerd3000]

6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Next person to instigate is on mod preview until 12pm Saturday! 

 

[Jbolin]

9 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Didn't mean to quote the first one and can't seem to remove it for some reason

Sooo, would that be a "Doinko" then?

[Perturbed Member]

17 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Gonna be a lot of dry air and downsloping potential in the metro area. I foresee a lot of virga and 6+ hours to saturate the airmass, with what already may be a pretty paltry push of precip. 

Yeah I was thinking that too given the crazy low DPs going into this. 

Pretty wide range in QPFs from this. The UKMET and GEM are stupidly wet. The GFS is kind of in the middle and the euro is drier, especially initially at precip onset. I'm hoping this will be more dynamic than the euro advertises with the warm moist air running into the cold outflow but that's not based on anything but hopes right now. 

 

[Snownerd3000]

Has anyone covered how much of a mess the roads are going to be despite any potential warm up then crashing temps?  I predict lots of spin outs.

[Deweydog]

Chris/Tim at each other’s throats and Andrew having heart palpitations about January?

Climo is winning!

[Hawksfan2008]

I love that Jaya wasn’t afraid to put a forecast out there and leverage his skills versus just looking at what the models spit out. That’s what makes a great meteorologist. Hope he nails it. 

[Perturbed Member]

12 minutes ago, Doinko said:

 

Interesting how many different events have given SEA those temps. Not as much variety at PDX

 

I think HIO hit 3F on 1/13/2017. The PDX low temp doesn't tell the story of just how cold a lot of the metro got that day. 

[Phishy Wx]

imagine 30 years from now and those of us who are still alive (lol) will be all sitting around on whatever people sit around on on the internet in 2052 talking about the incredible ANAL LOG of December 2022.  top shelf

[jakerepp]

2 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Has anyone covered how much of a mess the roads are going to be despite any potential warm up then crashing temps?  I predict lots of spin outs.

 

[Jbolin]

8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Next person to instigate is on mod preview until 12pm Saturday! 

Do it, I DARE YOU.

No, wait.

 

[Cloud]

I think it's important to know why we had the discussion regarding the current outputs for the Euro earlier, even as it stands, it does seems the model is a bit aggressive (all the way up to Mt. Vernon) and how it can affect things going into tonight. With the way things currently are from the observations standpoint, I think the odds are a bit better. Walking that really tight rope south of Seattle!

 

[BLI snowman]

8 minutes ago, Doinko said:

PDX pulled of a 24/19 day with that, do you think something like that would be possible for this event?

I expect Thursday will be very similar to those numbers. 

Quick overrunning snowfall too on the 21st (2-4" here in Clark County) but with a very strong onshore push that warmed us up into the upper 40s by midnight. That was a much stronger jet stream though, so a slower and drier moderation still looks like the way to go.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

56 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Huge euro weekly run today. 

Some of the frames are missing from the run on the site that I use, but it looks like mid to late January has potential.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Flurries turning into light snow. 

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I think it's important to know why we had the discussion regarding the current outputs for the Euro earlier, even as it stands, it does seems the model is a bit aggressive (all the way up to Mt. Vernon) and how it can affect things going into tonight. With the way things currently are from the observations standpoint, I think the odds are a bit better. Walking that really tight rope south of Seattle!

 

Being on the south side of the city makes me slightly nervous about tonight.

[Jbolin]

I keep hearing the term "south of seattle", what exactly does that mean with regard precip type (change)?

I understand there's a modicum of wiggle room in that inference but are we talking DT south, SeaTac south, Tacoma south etc? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nws has this transition figured out! 

[Meatyorologist]

12 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

What if I instigate some Christmas cheer?

 

I've called the your employer, the police, and your mother.

 

 

..To wish them a merry Christmas! And to tell them about the ***** ******** *** **** ** in your basement

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nws has this transition figured out! 

Tell them to talk to the NWS Seattle office then

[T-Town]

I brought the snow shovel from the shed to the garage so I don’t have to wade through waist deep drifts to get it later. Beer fridge is stocked. Bring it on. 

[Meatyorologist]

You know it's a day on the forums when you get a sharp headache and are relieved by the thought of it being an aneurysm.

[The Cats Meow]

The good news is that on Saturday we will have all the answers to all the questions we have now.

[T-Town]

 

[MWG]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nws has this transition figured out! 

From Eugene and south we are going to be torching 

[SouthHillFrosty]

The Icon doubles down on King County and flips off Pierce County 

[MossMan]

Currently 25.8. 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Hour364Please said:

The good news is that on Saturday we will have all the answers to all the questions we have now.

About January????

[Cloud]

6 minutes ago, JSnowlin said:

I keep hearing the term "south of seattle", what exactly does that mean with regard precip type (change)?

I understand there's a modicum of wiggle room in that inference but are we talking DT south, SeaTac south, Tacoma south etc? 

I'm pretty sure downtown, SODO.. etc...  Seatac, would simply refer to as Seatac? 

[Cold Snap]

King 5 is showing the rain/snow line getting right up to I-90 tomorrow morning. It’s going to be close with this!

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, T-Town said:

 

NWS is BULLISH