Really, really lovely cumulonimbus action tonight! I just happened to have my drone in the car and got some solid shots of DT Seattle/Lake Washington/Mercer Island/Bellevue looking north from Skyway. Alas, the focal length of the lens doesn't do the vertical height justice and my WB was off rendering it into semi-gross HDR territory, but still... fun looking weather! It was quite windy- I was flying right at 390 ft and the drone was giving me all sorts of warnings about sustained winds/gusts.
A most incredible snow storm. At times the snowfall rates have been as heavy or slightly heavier than January 2017. Temp 27.5, Dewpoint: 27.1 with gusty east wind and very heavy snow continuing. I'm at 11 1/2" now! UNBELIEVABLE!!!! This pic does no justice at all.
NBM is quite an interesting product! Their weighting algorithm is moderately complex and dynamic, though does has some drawbacks as we saw yesterday. For those who don't know, NBM is an attempt by NOAA to create a super probabilistic forecast model that ingests output from all the models above and outputs forecast guidance for local offices that help them to gauge the relative odds of particular weather outcomes. The 'special sauce' is the post-processing, normalization and weighting that they d
PDX had a warm spell peaking at 78 on April 2. Exactly 3 weeks later during a warm period it hit 78 again on April 23. We seem to sort of be in a 3 week cycle right now with ridging. So another 3 weeks would be centered on May 14. That would go in line with what you’re thinking with the MJO.
Ok, I get what you’re saying, there hasn’t been much blocking this spring and we’ve had weak systems interspersed with nice weather and temperatures in the normal-ish range overall. That’s fair.
I do think the rainfall deficit is a big deal — maybe Oregon gets close to normal after this big storm but Sea-Tac is about 5 inches short this spring and they are going to get maybe 1 inch in the next week unless the forecast changes.
Today has been absolutely lovely, btw. Soaking rain last night then brilliant sunshine with clouds at times today so far and a lush and blooming landscape. Temps moderate, in the upper 50s to around 60 at the moment. Gorgeous weather but we’re in a long wave troughy pattern so it doesn’t count.
Yeah, the wet April gave us an early boost but by the end of May that was pretty much ancient history.
Generally gonna need 2-3"+ of monthly precip and reasonable enough temps to maintain the soil moisture that's needed to really keep the green party going. At least that's what I've noticed in the years that have held steady well into June/the start of summer.
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