PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[Perturbed Member]

KPTV updated their forecast

Mark is going with Trace - 4 inches for any place west of the Cascades until models converge a bit more.

 

"

There’s a decent chance some area between Longview/Astoria (north end) and Eugene/Florence (south end) gets a surge of snow showers Wednesday around sunset and beyond. At that point it would be cold enough to stick anywhere. If your neighborhood is going to get more than 1/2″ of snow this week, this is the most likely time. Gut feeling is that we’ll see a huge variety of snow totals west of the Cascades. I’m thinking somewhere between a Dusting to 4″. Really! A big contrast in totals as we saw last week. We hopefully can narrow that down a bit tomorrow.

"

[RentonHill]

7 minutes ago, ChrisAmunRA said:

Had gusts of 49 mph here around Seattle City Center/Downtown Seattle area.

I was taking the dog for a walk earlier and watched a brand new unpainted 737 take off from Renton to the south while it was just nasty out. What a fun first flight for that plane

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

KPTV updated their forecast

Mark is going with Trace - 4 inches for any place west of the Cascades until models converge a bit more.

 

"

There’s a decent chance some area between Longview/Astoria (north end) and Eugene/Florence (south end) gets a surge of snow showers Wednesday around sunset and beyond. At that point it would be cold enough to stick anywhere. If your neighborhood is going to get more than 1/2″ of snow this week, this is the most likely time. Gut feeling is that we’ll see a huge variety of snow totals west of the Cascades. I’m thinking somewhere between a Dusting to 4″. Really! A big contrast in totals as we saw last week. We hopefully can narrow that down a bit tomorrow.

"

He’s to warm Saturday-Monday. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My brother said they got a couple inches of snow on the south coast in February 2018. 

[MossMan]

 Back to heavy rain! Now at 1.57” on the day, and about 2.5” since yesterday morning. 

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

 Back to heavy rain! Now at 1.57” on the day, and about 2.5” since yesterday morning. 

I don't think it's rained more than a trace here yet since the snow on Valentine's day

[Doinko]

22 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

The  GEM, RGEM and NAM have generally produced solutions where PDX is too far north to get much if any snow Wednesday-Thursday, the 12z UKMET also moved the bullseye well south of PDX whereas the 00z run had it right over the metro. 

With the 18z euro also scaling back on snow in PDX and producing higher totals around SLE and south it raises a question of if this is just noise and meaningless fluctuations or if this will end up being the start of a trend. 

The ICON and GFS are the two remaining models that produce very significant totals in PDX metro. 

I suspect 1-2 inches of snow is pretty doable around the north WV and maybe more likely than not, but it looks like some areas can end up missing out still.

I think we'll do okay in Washington county. Maybe 1-3" if we are lucky

[bainbridgekid]

52 mph gust at Paine Field in Everett. Westerly surge looks pretty significant tonight between Everett and Mt. Vernon and west through Whidbey and Camano Islands.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I don't think it's rained more than a trace here yet since the snow on Valentine's day

Same here. We average 9” in February and we are at maybe 2-2.5”.

[Sandy rocks]

I don't understand how the weather service and TV mets can say we are going to get so little snow when the models, especially the Euro Mark Nelson's favorite, show so much and they say so little. The forecast for Sandy only says rain/snow mix. Not even a long period of snow. It's hard to know what to believe.

[MossMan]

Not picking up very well via the pics but the sky is a very interesting color currently! 

[Snownerd3000]

No idea what we're getting for winds here in Woodinville but they sure are ripping 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

50 and cloudy in Sublimity.

[MossMan]

[JW8]

34 minutes ago, MossMan said:

 Back to heavy rain! Now at 1.57” on the day, and about 2.5” since yesterday morning. 

Whoa. And I thought it's been drippy here. We're only at .25" on the day.

[Phil]

50 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Didn’t see any Sasquatch in this.  But Phil wins. Much windier than mossman’s house

airborne Sasquatch’s are a legit possibility in some of the wind videos on my phone.  Too much R-rated language to post, but y’all would have a nice laugh at my expense. they include me getting knocked on my ass, hit in the face with a flying trashcan, and other stuff.

[Phil]

31 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Not picking up very well via the pics but the sky is a very interesting color currently! 

It looks pink.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

It looks pink.

I was in the Pepto! 

[joelgombiner]

Looks like those 70+ mph gusts  are verifying on the east slopes of the Cascades.  

[TT-SEA]

00Z NAM

[Doinko]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

00Z NAM

Now NAM isn't even good for the mid valley. Hoping it's wrong

[HuskyMaestro]

A bit unrelated but today I learned that acid snow exists and is produced in the same way as acid rain. In Pervouralsk, Russia during Feb 2019, while we were enjoying some historical heavy snow in our own backyards, they had accumulating acid green snow over there because of all the industrial plants chugging out so much pollution . Parts of Siberia are pretty nasty overall cause of the industrial plants doing god knows what to the environment, most infamously Norilsk. 

[Doinko]

RGEM shifted north. Looks great for PDX

[Doinko]

 

[Requiem]

I have decided to ignore the NAM. Join me in my revolutionary act! #NAMisoverparty 

[T-Town]

34 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

A bit unrelated but today I learned that acid snow exists and is produced in the same way as acid rain. In Pervouralsk, Russia during Feb 2019, while we were enjoying some historical heavy snow in our own backyards, they had accumulating acid green snow over there because of all the industrial plants chugging out so much pollution . Parts of Siberia are pretty nasty overall cause of the industrial plants doing god knows what to the environment, most infamously Norilsk. 

Can you pass the acid snow?

[Snownerd3000]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

If this hit in November, feels like we'd see significant power outages. Was just walking my dog and holy shite.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

This is how I picture things playing out…

 

[Doinko]

ICON looks fantastic

 

[TT-SEA]

00Z ICON looks down south ... this is through 5 p.m. Wednesday and precip is still going at that time.   More updates soon.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z ICON looks down south ... this is through 5 p.m. Wednesday and precip is still going at that time.   More updates soon.

ICON really nails Washington County again. I would definitely not mind!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

ICON really nails Washington County again. I would definitely not mind!

It orients the precip pretty well over us here too, most the icon has shown for this area. 

[Perturbed Member]

The models that are nailing PDX and areas a bit further north all feature a deeper and further north low. 

 

Compare this to the crappy NAM

 

The EPS and GEFS shows there is actually still a decent spread across the members as far as the low strength and position goes. 

[MossMan]

17 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

If this hit in November, feels like we'd see significant power outages. Was just walking my dog and holy shite.

After some breezes earlier it had been dead calm here.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like this is the final tally... ICON shows about 24 hours of snow in the Portland area from Wednesday morning through early Thursday morning.  

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like this is the final tally... ICON shows about 24 hours of snow in the Portland area from Wednesday morning through early Thursday morning.  

Shows 9-10" here. This would be nice!

[Perturbed Member]

00z GFS is gonna be great for PDX. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like this is the final tally... ICON shows about 24 hours of snow in the Portland area from Wednesday morning through early Thursday morning.  

Weird how that banding sets up. Even Silverton/ Molalla get hit hard. Our area looks to have around a foot on this map. But Salem gets donut holed. 

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS

[thickhog]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like this is the final tally... ICON shows about 24 hours of snow in the Portland area from Wednesday morning through early Thursday morning.  

One time, ICON!