Really, really lovely cumulonimbus action tonight! I just happened to have my drone in the car and got some solid shots of DT Seattle/Lake Washington/Mercer Island/Bellevue looking north from Skyway. Alas, the focal length of the lens doesn't do the vertical height justice and my WB was off rendering it into semi-gross HDR territory, but still... fun looking weather! It was quite windy- I was flying right at 390 ft and the drone was giving me all sorts of warnings about sustained winds/gusts.
A most incredible snow storm. At times the snowfall rates have been as heavy or slightly heavier than January 2017. Temp 27.5, Dewpoint: 27.1 with gusty east wind and very heavy snow continuing. I'm at 11 1/2" now! UNBELIEVABLE!!!! This pic does no justice at all.
NBM is quite an interesting product! Their weighting algorithm is moderately complex and dynamic, though does has some drawbacks as we saw yesterday. For those who don't know, NBM is an attempt by NOAA to create a super probabilistic forecast model that ingests output from all the models above and outputs forecast guidance for local offices that help them to gauge the relative odds of particular weather outcomes. The 'special sauce' is the post-processing, normalization and weighting that they d
Furnace was set at 70 for many months. Not sure last time it ran but I turned it off yesterday morning and it was 70 in here at that time. Now what do we do Phil? Turn on AC on what will be a relatively chilly night at least down into the low 50s.
One thing that's nice about this ridge is that it's an entirely midlatitude feature. There's no 4CH component at all, in fact there is a weak trough over that part of the country. I think that is why we are able to see more ways to break it down easily and reintroduce troughing. If we were dealing with a huge, sprawling high with connections down to CA and AZ we'd probably be staring right down the barrel of perma-summer once more.
Obviously we'll have to deal with it eventually as its presence and transient influence on the region is normal Summer climo. But the fact we are not seeing it yet, combined with the recently re-aquired ability in the 2020s to get substantial troughing regimes into AMJ, give me hope that the core of the warm season is still a ways away.
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