BLI snowman Posted September 20, 2019 Report Share Posted September 20, 2019 It didn't start snowing until Spring Break in 2008, that's pretty hard to confuse the two seasons. I remember '07-'08 was the same season as the Gale storm that slapped the coast pretty hard with one of their better wind events in recent years. I just know everywhere had snow in 07. There were a ton of days in 07-08 where it snowed and largely melted on contact. Probably 15+. It was fairly ridiculous. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakeinthevalley Posted September 20, 2019 Report Share Posted September 20, 2019 Quite the entertaining afternoon in McMinnville as the practice runs for the airshow were going on in the past couple hours. F35 Lightning was in the air for a bit and it is certainly something to see (and hear and feel) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 20, 2019 Report Share Posted September 20, 2019 18z is running!Another thing you refuse to learn...Tim says always discount the 6 and 18z’s. What is the matter with you? 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted September 20, 2019 Report Share Posted September 20, 2019 Quite the entertaining afternoon in McMinnville as the practice runs for the airshow were going on in the past couple hours. F35 Lightning was in the air for a bit and it is certainly something to see (and hear and feel)Now that sounds like a wonderful way to spend the afternoon! Love the rumble of those jets as much as Thunder! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 20, 2019 Report Share Posted September 20, 2019 Basically everyone got 3-4" in the Portland area on 1/16/07. It hit everyone. https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2007/01/16/ The snow on the 10th was very spotty around Portland, some places had up to 3-4" but most got an inch or less. I think Silverton did best on the 10th. I think they got about 3" that day, and only an inch or so on 1/16 as they were a bit south for that event.... 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted September 20, 2019 Report Share Posted September 20, 2019 68/57 day, beautiful sunny day here. Nice to have a day not even hit 70 and be sunny still, definitely can feel that fall is in the air now. Nws forecast disc. is talking about temps about 10 degrees below climo late next week into next weekend. High temps approaching 60 and lows in the 40s. Seems like fall is 3 weeks ahead of schedule already. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted September 20, 2019 Report Share Posted September 20, 2019 Another thing you refuse to learn...Tim says always discount the 6 and 18z’s. What is the matter with you?18Z-6Z = 12Z 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 21, 2019 Report Share Posted September 21, 2019 2009, 2002, and 1982 were all moderate to strong Ninos, though. 2009 was the only solar min one.Well, we have very El Niño-like tropical forcing right now and will likely evolve further in that direction with time. So I’m not sure there’ll be a huge disconnect, with time. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 21, 2019 Report Share Posted September 21, 2019 Phil, you keep referencing 2002, but so far this fall is playing out completely different than that one did...Well, I think you’re misunderstanding the timescale and phase space(s) I’m analyzing here. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 21, 2019 Report Share Posted September 21, 2019 It could with some help, but generally that type of broad circulation is not an effective way to tap into continental air. Still a nice pattern, though.Jared’s pattern recognition skills are hilariously terrible/nonexistent. Maybe even worse than mine. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted September 21, 2019 Report Share Posted September 21, 2019 Well, we have very El Niño-like tropical forcing right now and will likely evolve further in that direction with time. So I’m not sure there’ll be a huge disconnect, with time.Also have low solar so who knows? Wasn’t 2002 a high solar year? Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted September 21, 2019 Report Share Posted September 21, 2019 Yup, opportunities for numerous lows to slide down the coast.Hopefully we see lots of BC sliders this winter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted September 21, 2019 Report Share Posted September 21, 2019 Guys, an SSW is all we need. Well that and a huge dip in the jet stream and a retrograding high along with a few other things. Could be a dud year which is what I’m expecting after all these “good” years mixed in for the last decade. We shall see. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted September 21, 2019 Report Share Posted September 21, 2019 The February 2019 pattern will repeat in April 2020. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted September 21, 2019 Report Share Posted September 21, 2019 Hopefully we see lots of BC sliders this winter.They need passports to get past the border. Check this out 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 21, 2019 Report Share Posted September 21, 2019 Well, we have very El Niño-like tropical forcing right now and will likely evolve further in that direction with time. So I’m not sure there’ll be a huge disconnect, with time.Perhaps. But right now, there are a lot of differences in the Pacific from some of those years, not just in ENSO regions. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted September 21, 2019 Report Share Posted September 21, 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 21, 2019 Report Share Posted September 21, 2019 Well, we have very El Niño-like tropical forcing right now and will likely evolve further in that direction with time. So I’m not sure there’ll be a huge disconnect, with time.Let’s get through the massive late September western ridge first. One thing at a time. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted September 21, 2019 Report Share Posted September 21, 2019 Let’s get through the massive late September western ridge first. One thing at a time. CFS gives me a severe weather outbreak next June! Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 24 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 21, 2019 Report Share Posted September 21, 2019 Our plan to move to the Spokane area has changed. I was able to find a new job with better hours, a better boss, and a much better salary. Now it looks like it's between Sultan and Maple Valley. My weather-weenie side says go with Sultan due to the availability of east wind and access to the PSCZ but Maple Valley is a lot nicer. The area between Lake Stevens and Arlington would also be nice weather wise, but the commute would be atrocious. Hard to balance livability with higher chance of snow in this area. Either too expensive, too low of elevation, too long commute, etc. It's been quite the headache actually, especially when I'm trying to reason with my wife that the chance to get more snow is a very important consideration. Some would say the most important. Not me, I wouldn't say that, no... But some would.As long as you don't need to go Hwy 18 to 90 everyday... Maple Valley is way better. Just get as far to the north and east as possible. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 21, 2019 Report Share Posted September 21, 2019 Perhaps. But right now, there are a lot of differences in the Pacific from some of those years, not just in ENSO regions.What do you mean? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 21, 2019 Report Share Posted September 21, 2019 Well, we have very El Niño-like tropical forcing right now and will likely evolve further in that direction with time. So I’m not sure there’ll be a huge disconnect, with time. You just refuse to give up on the Nino. It's really a stretch to consider this the same as if the ENSO SST's were warm. Something is obviously different here. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 21, 2019 Report Share Posted September 21, 2019 Perhaps. But right now, there are a lot of differences in the Pacific from some of those years, not just in ENSO regions. Definitely looks like a 2002-03/2009-10 style winter for the Mid Atlantic this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 21, 2019 Report Share Posted September 21, 2019 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 21, 2019 Report Share Posted September 21, 2019 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 21, 2019 Report Share Posted September 21, 2019 Guys, an SSW is all we need. Well that and a huge dip in the jet stream and a retrograding high along with a few other things. Could be a dud year which is what I’m expecting after all these “good” years mixed in for the last decade. We shall see.Yeah, the idea that +ENSO bias to forcing = dud winters in the West is BS..largely recency bias (since the inception of the satellite-era). Most of the recent blowtorch winters out there (with the exception of 2015) actually had little to do with ENSO, and more to do with a broad Pacific ITCZ/HC associated with the +PMM/+TNH/strong TPV in NE-Canada. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted September 21, 2019 Report Share Posted September 21, 2019 They need passports to get past the border. Check this out4indices.pngI love blue! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 21, 2019 Report Share Posted September 21, 2019 You just refuse to give up on the Nino. It's really a stretch to consider this the same as if the ENSO SST's were warm. Something is obviously different here.When the warmest waters/subsurface relative to average are consistently around the dateline and W-IO (+IOD, Modoki-structure) with an icebox in the Indo-Pacific/E-IO, you’re going to gave a +ENSO lean to forcing on the low pass assuming the ocean’s inertial derivative isn’t in opposition (which it isn’t). This is why you’ve seen a consistently -SOI. I don’t care what the SSTs look like now. I care what they’re going to look like in a few months’ time. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 21, 2019 Report Share Posted September 21, 2019 Also have low solar so who knows? Wasn’t 2002 a high solar year?Apologies, let me clear this up. I wasn’t trying to suggest it’s a winter analog for the PNW/any particular region. I’m merely looking at the structure of the tropical/subtropical circulation cells and convective variability over the seasonal cycle/transition period. It’s a worst case outcome, I suppose (in that “cone of possibilities). But I haven’t decided which of the various progressions of the wave train cycles I think is most likely yet. There are a multitude of possible outcomes. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted September 21, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 21, 2019 2 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted September 21, 2019 Report Share Posted September 21, 2019 Snow mapssssss 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted September 21, 2019 Report Share Posted September 21, 2019 What is the GLAAM looking like? You know the non existent acronym. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 21, 2019 Report Share Posted September 21, 2019 It’s going to snow. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 21, 2019 Report Share Posted September 21, 2019 It’s going to snow.It snows here every winter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 21, 2019 Report Share Posted September 21, 2019 El Niño snow is the BEST snow! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 21, 2019 Report Share Posted September 21, 2019 00Z GFS is a pleasantly dry run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted September 21, 2019 Report Share Posted September 21, 2019 El Niño snow is the BEST snow!Dec 1972 and Jan 1969 say you’re goddam right! Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 21, 2019 Report Share Posted September 21, 2019 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted September 21, 2019 Report Share Posted September 21, 2019 From Maue. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 21, 2019 Report Share Posted September 21, 2019 From Maue. EE9esKrX4AAeoXj.pngSnowfall into early November... interesting. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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