Tom Posted October 23, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 Wow, what a run at 500mb....could this be a solution??? Possibly...but man, so many pieces come together on this run as a piece of energy rounding the base of the PV near the Arctic circle that tracks due South and phases with the southern energy coming up from the S Plains into a major wound storm near the GL's/Ontario. The GL's region has been a "hot spot" early this season and may be another magnet to attract another major storm??? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 23, 2019 Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 I wouldn't trust the GFS at all IMO. I don't think the upgrade last year has improved it's performance or reliability much. The Euro has been showing a storm for the past 4 to 5 runs and the Canadian is now also in agreement. I think the Euro is much more likely to be correct with at least some storm system, but obviously placement and strength are a guess at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted October 23, 2019 Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 The Euro looks like it has a big snowstorm around here next Wednesday into Thursday. It's way too early for me to get excited or believe that. I personally have never seen a snowstorm this early in the season like what the Euro is showing around here. Ground is currently way too warm for any snow to stick as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 23, 2019 Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 Ground is currently way too warm for any snow to stick as well.Not by then. That's a powerhouse cold front on its way. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 23, 2019 Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 Canadian still has the system, but shifted much further north this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 23, 2019 Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 Wow, what a run at 500mb....could this be a solution??? Possibly...but man, so many pieces come together on this run as a piece of energy rounding the base of the PV near the Arctic circle that tracks due South and phases with the southern energy coming up from the S Plains into a major wound storm near the GL's/Ontario. The GL's region has been a "hot spot" early this season and may be another magnet to attract another major storm??? Was just looping the GEFS @ 500mb thinking the same exact thing! You beat me to the posting tho, lol Meanwhile, NAM 12km getting a nice look for SMI with this weekend's system bringing the rain shield across SMI Sat night. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 23, 2019 Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 Canadian still has the system, but shifted much further north this run. Canadian's had a couple systems at various runs recently. Lots to sort out yet. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 23, 2019 Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 Wow, what a run at 500mb....could this be a solution??? Possibly...but man, so many pieces come together on this run as a piece of energy rounding the base of the PV near the Arctic circle that tracks due South and phases with the southern energy coming up from the S Plains into a major wound storm near the GL's/Ontario. The GL's region has been a "hot spot" early this season and may be another magnet to attract another major storm??? I don't think I've seen a deeper 500 mb signal over the Mitt. that'd be an insane wave. EDIT- Re-watched that looping 12z GFS. Man, that's eye-popping stuff right there! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted October 23, 2019 Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 If that plays out wow! That would be a pounding. My dad is saying to early but man it would be a sight! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 23, 2019 Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 12z Euro with a sweet track out of TX but weak sauce at 1006mb. Precip maps still loading but I can’t imagine this run is going to show snow totals anything like the previous runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinnyLakes Posted October 23, 2019 Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 Euro so far on 12z run seems to be moving just slightly south and east. CMC has well to the north (hitting just east of the one on the 12th). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 23, 2019 Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 12z Euro looking a lot like the CMC with the double low next week. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 23, 2019 Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 Actually a lot more snow than I thought. Jack zone just NW of Rochester. Definite jump north. But at this stage it doesn’t really matter. The storm is there. That’s what we want. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 23, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 @ Jaster, I remember you making a comment last winter how storm systems like to "follow their tracks". When I saw the 12z GEFS run, it reminded me of your comment. If you go way back to Hr 84 to Hr 144, both systems that are poised to effect our region literally take the same ol' track out of the CO Rockies, down into the GOM, then due North towards the GL's! Pretty neat stuff right there. Looks like the 12z Euro has a secondary piece of energy that rides up the thermal boundary straight out of the GOM up towards the GL's and bombs out. Wowza. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 23, 2019 Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 I'm loving the Euro consistency. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 23, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 12z Euro looking a lot like the CMC with the double low next week. I'm interested to see what that secondary piece does, esp when its coming out of the GOM. The models tend to focus to much on the lead wave at this range, then begin to see the main show from the secondary piece. We saw this happen with the models last year as they struggled with how much waves of energy dug into the South. This set up should provide us a big clue to the pattern going forward into the cold season. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 23, 2019 Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 I'm interested to see what that secondary piece does, esp when its coming out of the GOM. The models tend to focus to much on the lead wave at this range, then begin to see the main show from the secondary piece. We saw this happen with the models last year as they struggled with how much waves of energy dug into the South. This set up should provide us a big clue to the pattern going forward into the cold season.Can you imagine all of that moisture running into some artic air! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 23, 2019 Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 Im liking the way these storms are tracking. Great sign. As for the weekend system, if it were later in the season, (colder temps) SEMI woulda had a major snowstorm. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 23, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 12z Euro snapshot...I still can't believe we are tracking another potential major winter storm, the 2nd in the month of October... 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted October 23, 2019 Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 Wow the EURO has been really consistent. This would be quiet the shock if it ends up verifying; gonna be fun watching what wins out! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 23, 2019 Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 Can you imagine all of that moisture running into some artic air!There would be some insane totals. Nothing like powdery snows. You usually get double the amt, ratiowise. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted October 23, 2019 Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 12z Euro snapshot...I still can't believe we are tracking another potential major winter storm, the 2nd in the month of October... This would mark the 3rd straight storm in the center part of the US since the beginning of the LRC wouldn't?! We had the Dakota monster, this weeks storms with tornadoes, and then this one next week. Not jumping to any conclusions but man we could be in for one awesome LRC ride this year! Correction: you mentioned 2nd winter storm, my bad! The one this week covered a lot of area just didn't have the snow!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 23, 2019 Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 Attm, the weather here in SEMI is absolutely gorgeous w lots of sunshine and still breezy. Temp at 54F. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 23, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 This would mark the 3rd straight storm in the center part of the US since the beginning of the LRC wouldn't?! We had the Dakota monster, this weeks storms with tornadoes, and then this one next week. Not jumping to any conclusions but man we could be in for one awesome LRC ride this year! Correction: you mentioned 2nd winter storm, my bad! The one this week covered a lot of area just didn't have the snow!!Your right tho, this would be the 3rd strong storm to hit the central CONUS this month alone...I wonder what Nov has in store? Think about that for a second, you typically don’t see that many in an entire season, let alone 1 month. I’m sensing some wild times ahead. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted October 23, 2019 Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 Well, one snowstorm misses to the west of Cedar Rapids, the other misses to the east of Cedar Rapids. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted October 23, 2019 Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 Well, one snowstorm misses to the west of Cedar Rapids, the other misses to the east of Cedar Rapids. way too early to make a call 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted October 23, 2019 Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 Surprised Craig hasn't posted anything yet on here 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 23, 2019 Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 This one is going to be an interesting wave to follow...should be a good wintry storm in future cycles down in the south for our TX/OK members and places around our region...I'm in the sweet spot buddy. I don't care if it's only rain. Right now the pattern is where it's at. Absolutely wonderful. As close to a "phase" as you can get for Oct. Wait til December! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 23, 2019 Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 @ Jaster, I remember you making a comment last winter how storm systems like to "follow their tracks". When I saw the 12z GEFS run, it reminded me of your comment. If you go way back to Hr 84 to Hr 144, both systems that are poised to effect our region literally take the same ol' track out of the CO Rockies, down into the GOM, then due North towards the GL's! Pretty neat stuff right there. Looks like the 12z Euro has a secondary piece of energy that rides up the thermal boundary straight out of the GOM up towards the GL's and bombs out. Wowza.1030s HPs are big for this time of year. That's more of a December-February occurrence. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted October 23, 2019 Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 NWS has 38 for a high next Wednesday, sounds fantastic to me. Warmth had been our enemy last winter, January until it really took hold it seemed. I know on New Years I was sweating walking the trials. 2 Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted October 23, 2019 Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 Chances of this being another Dakotas special? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 23, 2019 Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 NWS Hastings afternoon disco: Model differences are starting to increasewith how that system moving through the Rockies evolves, with somepretty big differences as we get into Monday and especiallyTuesday. The more progressive models keep the pattern more open,bringing a chance for precip on Sunday and not a whole lotafter...compared to others which show a stronger at times, slowerpattern, bringing a better chance for accumulating snow. Will beinteresting to see how things trend in the coming days. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 23, 2019 Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 Chances of this being another Dakotas special?I’d say quite low, given the extremely cold airmass surging southeastward. I wouldn’t expect a hard left turn with a 1040mb high in Montana. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted October 23, 2019 Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 Say what?! https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=TXZ014&warncounty=TXC179&firewxzone=TXZ014&local_place1=5%20Miles%20W%20Lefors%20TX&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory&lat=35.4512&lon=-100.8865#.XbDQuCVOmEc 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinnyLakes Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 Chances of this being another Dakotas special?Not 0, but quite low given the timing. Will be a different path from the storm around the 12th. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 Say what?! https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=TXZ014&warncounty=TXC179&firewxzone=TXZ014&local_place1=5%20Miles%20W%20Lefors%20TX&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory&lat=35.4512&lon=-100.8865#.XbDQuCVOmEc Yep. Bastardi tweeted that while it seems far south, it's not even close to their earliest record snow date which happened in Sept! Didn't mention the year but guessing a long time back for that record. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 Never seen such frequent AFD updates in October. Got a hunch GRR's gonna be a busy office this winter! .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Wednesday)Issued at 302 PM EDT Wed Oct 23 2019The main challenges in the period deal with thepotential for precipitation tonight...timing of the next stormover the weekend and the risk for perhaps some snow next week. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 @ Jaster, I remember you making a comment last winter how storm systems like to "follow their tracks". When I saw the 12z GEFS run, it reminded me of your comment. If you go way back to Hr 84 to Hr 144, both systems that are poised to effect our region literally take the same ol' track out of the CO Rockies, down into the GOM, then due North towards the GL's! Pretty neat stuff right there. Looks like the 12z Euro has a secondary piece of energy that rides up the thermal boundary straight out of the GOM up towards the GL's and bombs out. Wowza. Haha buddy, flattered you remembered. Yeah, with these major troughs, the waves often play a game of "follow the leader". Say, that Euro map with the dbl snow swaths is quite an intrigue in it's own right. That does happen, but not too often even in true winter. Just had time to peek at TT's 500mb loop and not surface maps. The wave that lays down the 2nd swath. Any chance that could ramp up quicker down our way? I mean, verbatim an inch or two before Nov 1st is pretty historic on it's own. But just curious your thoughts? 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 Its cloudy here at mby w temps at 48F. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 Halloween night looks like a cold one w lows near 30F. BRRRRRR! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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