Kayla Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 Two weeks out is very different than one week out. The ECMWF only ended up slightly west of what it showed a week ago. Its much farther away with the cold for early next week than it was a week ago for today. After that... I think the westerlies will kick in eventually for at least a week. That seems quite likely given that its November and we are working on a long dry spell right now. Looks pretty close to me... If a 500 mile shift west is a lot then you have way too much confidence in our modeling capabilities. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 29, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 I totally missed what Phil said that was controversial? That this month reminded him of October 2009? October 2009 was quite an average month, especially in comparison to this one. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 25 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 Just talked to friends over close to my cabin and it's 25 degrees at 12:45 pm after a low of 12. Crazy for October 3 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 29, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 Temperature is only 37 and with a -1 DP.. Like WTF I don't think this is October. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 25 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 FWIW... the 12Z ECMWF shows the wind continuing all night tonight for many areas. Including King County and the Portland area. Some wind sheltered areas might decouple though... like Eugene and Olympia.How windy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 Nice name.Sounds like a cow to me. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 If I am remembering correctly, I was on the roof of my house (between Albany and Lebanon) putting up Christmas lights when that hit. It came up out of nowhere and I almost got blown off the roof, I had a hell of a time trying to get down, and I don’t do well with heights, so that cured me of getting on the roof for a while. That was my first huge windstorm as well, and I believe it was the first of a few that happened that fall/winter.Wow that's crazy, glad you didn't fall off! I was too young to follow the storm in real time but after reading write ups about it, it made me appreciate the storm even more. The 12-12-95 Sou'wester was actually deeper than the Columbus Day Storm but it didn't hug the Coast as much. Still was a monster windstorm for the Coast and other areas. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 Still 48F with a DP of 12F. Just insane for the south valley this early. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakeinthevalley Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 Wow that's crazy, glad you didn't fall off! I was too young to follow the storm in real time but after reading write ups about it, it made me appreciate the storm even more. The 12-12-95 Sou'wester was actually deeper than the Columbus Day Storm but it didn't hug the Coast as much. Still was a monster windstorm for the Coast and other areas.It was a little breezy in Salem that afternoon, but peak gusts really only lasted for an hour or so. Got out of work early and I never even lost power. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 It did not really trend too far west on the ECMWF over the last week... just a few notches. To be fair, the Euro 6 days out was further east. It was further off than the 7 day map. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 Luckily (in my opinion)... it all misses us. The 12Z ECMWF shows warmer than normal 850mb temps here starting tomorrow through the end of the run.Better we miss now than Thanksgiving onwards. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 Dewpoints now well below 0 across much of Eastern Oregon. Down to -13 at Burns. Aurora is checking in with a DP of 0 here in the Willamette Valley.That Aurora reading is impressive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 Sounds like a cow to me.I know not everyone is into naming Winter Storms but I like it. Winter Storm Jupiter (1-10-17) is something I will always remember and it's good to have a name attached to such an epic snowstorm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 I know not everyone is into naming Winter Storms but I like it. Winter Storm Jupiter (1-10-17) is something I will always remember and it's good to have a name attached to such an epic snowstorm.Lol, you are probably the only person who actually remembers the storm names. Dates make way more sense to me. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 Seems like pdx hasn’t updated their observations for an hour and a half on weather.gov. Anyone know what that is about? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 Overall Tim I agree with your thoughts on the upcoming pattern 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 Seems like pdx hasn’t updated their observations for an hour and a half on weather.gov. Anyone know what that is about?Offical observation at 130 shows 45. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 Seems like pdx hasn’t updated their observations for an hour and a half on weather.gov. Anyone know what that is about? I don't know, but it is annoying Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 Seems like pdx hasn’t updated their observations for an hour and a half on weather.gov. Anyone know what that is about?https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/other_obs.php?wfo=pqr&zone=ORZ006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/other_obs.php?wfo=pqr&zone=ORZ006Cool. Thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 The only thing that remembers the names of those winter storms,other than a couple of dozen people, are the weather channel databases. On the other hand, everyone that experiences a named tropical system remembers it. Whoever greenlighted that at TWC needs to be kicked in the balls. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 The only thing that remembers the names of those winter storms,other than a couple of dozen people, are the weather channel databases. On the other hand, everyone that experiences a named tropical system remembers it. Whoever greenlighted that at TWC needs to be kicked in the balls. Agreed Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew. Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 Only up to 39.6 degrees here (830 feet west hills of Portland) at 2:05pm, feels more like an early January day! It's also leaf apocalypse with the wind. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 Dry air finally moved in here. Dew point now 14, max today so far 43 and holding. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 Up to 52F with a DP of 12F. Will probly be the warm spot aside from the coast. I vividly remember winter storm Cleon (entire CONUS arctic air) from Dec 2013 and of course Ryan from this past Feb 25-28. I agree it's still idiotic. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 I remember Jupiter of course, almost 20 inches in 10 hours! 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 Up to 52F with a DP of 12F. Will probly be the warm spot aside from the coast. I vividly remember winter storm Cleon (entire CONUS arctic air) from Dec 2013 and of course Ryan from this past Feb 25-28. I agree it's still idiotic. I don't remember the names at all. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 It was a little breezy in Salem that afternoon, but peak gusts really only lasted for an hour or so. Got out of work early and I never even lost power.Yeah, Salem only topped out at 59 mph. Some higher gusts up the Valley. Some locations on the Oregon Coast got into the 100+ mph range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 Yeah, Salem only topped out at 59 mph. Some higher gusts up the Valley. Some locations on the Oregon Coast got into the 100+ mph range. It was fun watching all of the pretty transformers blowing causing the night sky to light up quite frequently that night! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 It was fun watching all of the pretty transformers blowing causing the night sky to light up quite frequently that night!Very rarely do the actual distribution transformers (roughly 4-6 poles apart) explode. What does explode is the distribution fuse being fed by that particular transformer line (or bank), so when you see a "power flash", 85% of the time it is a fuse and/or fuses on the same line. A transformer explosion cannot be confused with a fuse explosion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 Yeah, Salem only topped out at 59 mph. Some higher gusts up the Valley. Some locations on the Oregon Coast got into the 100+ mph range. Someone in Quillayute called a friend in Roseburg and asked - "you hear about this storm? you seeing any damage?"...both ended the call confused. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 Very rarely do the actual distribution transformers (roughly 4-6 poles apart) explode. What does explode is the distribution fuse being fed by that particular transformer line (or bank), so when you see a "power flash", 85% of the time it is a fuse and/or fuses on the same line. A transformer explosion cannot be confused with a fuse explosion.True. But I think 99% of people call it a transformer blowing, and the brilliant bluish light that is caused from it. And I remember showering in our camper since it had hot water, our powerless house for about 3 days did not. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 46 here at 3:15. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 True. But I think 99% of people call it a transformer blowing, and the brilliant bluish light that is caused from it. And I remember showering in our camper since it had hot water, our powerless house for about 3 days did not.The "blue flash" is the best indicator to distinguishing between a fuse and transformer. I've seen three transformer explosions and they are gnarly. An increasingly loud buzzing sound soon followed by a fireball of varying brightness and size all the while spewing boiling or flaming mineral oil outwards twenty plus feet in all directions. (in addition to various electrical parts) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 Bend has now quickly cooled down to 29...34 in Culver. Impressive airmass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 Wow that's crazy, glad you didn't fall off! I was too young to follow the storm in real time but after reading write ups about it, it made me appreciate the storm even more. The 12-12-95 Sou'wester was actually deeper than the Columbus Day Storm but it didn't hug the Coast as much. Still was a monster windstorm for the Coast and other areas.Yeah that was no so fun, but I did have a fun experience in the Willamette Valley a few years later with a monster windstorm, and I was driving a ‘69 bug for that one. The wind was out of the south, and going east on Hwy 34 I had my wheel cranked over 90 degrees to keep it straight down the road, with water blowing through the passenger window seals and hitting me. I got on 5 north and had no problem getting the car up to 70-75....may have even been 80. The engine was screaming revs-wise but was not really working hard thanks to the very strong tailwind. I probably would have struggled to get it up to 40 going southbound without nuking the motor! 1 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 One of my ice trees is coming tonight guys. With a low in the single digits it should be decent Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 18z has some sexy looking merging of polar and subtropical jet about 10 days out. otherwise real boring stuff. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 Yeah that was no so fun, but I did have a fun experience in the Willamette Valley a few years later with a monster windstorm, and I was driving a ‘69 bug for that one. The wind was out of the south, and going east on Hwy 34 I had my wheel cranked over 90 degrees to keep it straight down the road, with water blowing through the passenger window seals and hitting me. I got on 5 north and had no problem getting the car up to 70-75....may have even been 80. The engine was screaming revs-wise but was not really working hard thanks to the very strong tailwind. I probably would have struggled to get it up to 40 going southbound without nuking the motor!Must of been wild trying to get your wheels at the right angle. Quite a few times when I've been driving through the Gorge, I've had to deal with strong headwinds. It's no fun, takes longer to get to your destination and you use up more gas. On the flipside, when you got a strong tailwind with you it's awesome. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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