Jump to content

10/29-10/31 Halloween Winter Storm


Tom

Recommended Posts

I'd say continue looking for a NW shift in the models over the next couple days. At least enough for it to make sense. I don't see a low this weak having the highest amounts in SE Iowa in late October. Models tend to not account for climo until a couple days before.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd say continue looking for a NW shift in the models over the next couple days. At least enough for it to make sense. I don't see a low this weak having the highest amounts in SE Iowa in late October. Models tend to not account for climo until a couple days before.

I don't forsee significant track shifts at this point. Maybe a little bit here or there, like up to 50 miles but nothing huge. All the relevant features are over land in the US/Canada so I think the general track is fairly well set.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

i think the bigger question is does the storm wrap up a little more like the GFS shows and therefore higher qpf.  Euro was showing the more wrapped up solution for days before dropping it in recent days, now the GFS has picked up on it.  I find the Euro is usually only wrong when it shows the heaviest snow over my area.  So it will probably be right this time. LOL.  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Local met going with 1-2" tonight! I'm excited. First snowfall of the season knocking on my doorstep!

 

Just got done with some last minute outdoor work. Cleaned all the leaves out of the gutters. I like doing that when all or most of the leaves have fallen and before the gutters get full of snow and ice.

 

Might even have a quick fire before the snow moves in!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Don't tell me this is going to be another year where models show Nebraska getting the storm a week out and then it completely whiffs and hits to the east, because that's exactly what this one is doing. We get cold and basically dusted, not exactly a good feeling after we were bullseyed for days last week.

 

Remember when you broke all time snow records last year?? Pretty sure it’s our turn!!!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes, but accumulations won't be as much as those farther west of me.  Warm lake is not a friend during October snows.

No matter what happens, I'd say its a heck of a way to end October and start November. ;)

  • Like 2

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

BigSnowNew.jpeg?w=632

"Several inches of snow will fall across this stretch, with some locales receiving up to a foot," Longley said from Accu-weather.

In addition to the heavy snow, strong winds will also help to create blowing and drifting snow, and may lead to near-blizzard conditions at times.

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree with the bolded...in future cycles, this pattern could easily produce those results given how these troughs dive S out of B.C into the inter-mountain west along with a slight SER.  The clash between the air masses in future cycles are going to be eye candy.  Frontal boundaries have been common so far this month.  Keep that Bermuda High just off shore and we are in business.

 

'79 was beastly, but w/o typical bliz winds (tho I'm sure the best winds were had around your area):

 

19790115_072_total.png

 

Dec 2000 was stout and finished with legit bliz conditions for final 4-6 hrs where I was:

 

20001213_072_total.png

 

Can you imagine what getting either would be like, less than one week after whatever Olga's winter version might have delivered? 

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

'79 was beastly, but w/o typical bliz winds (tho I'm sure the best winds were had around your area):

 

19790115_072_total.png

 

Dec 2000 was stout and finished with legit bliz conditions for final 4-6 hrs where I was:

 

20001213_072_total.png

 

Can you imagine what getting either less than one week after whatever Olga's winter version might have delivered?

Where do I sign up for these? And yes, I was thinking the same thing earlier today! Haha

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Clint's in GI. GI got screwed while those of us in Lincoln and Omaha got smashed. He can complain.

 

Yeah, hope he gets pummelled at least once this winter!

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

'79 was beastly, but w/o typical bliz winds (tho I'm sure the best winds were had around your area):

 

attachicon.gif19790115_072_total.png

 

Dec 2000 was stout and finished with legit bliz conditions for final 4-6 hrs where I was:

 

attachicon.gif20001213_072_total.png

 

Can you imagine what getting either would be like, less than one week after whatever Olga's winter version might have delivered? 

 

Those are patently false and I know this because there are 12" reports in eastern Iowa on both of those maps, and I can assure you that doesn't happen here.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Whole time I lived in Iowa City for school never snowed over 7 inches

 

Years?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm still sitting at 40º, which means the precip should start as rain shortly.  However, Ottumwa went from 39º and light rain at 7pm to 33º and light snow at 8pm, so it should switch over quickly.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...