Jesse Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 C’mon GEM!! All the enthusiasm here has been REALLY annouying me and I can’t wait to see some cold water get thrown on these weenies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 12z GEFS 500mb pattern improved significantly very close to arctic and mirroring the Op run. Very good sign. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Anyone else getting slightly excited?It’s in the books !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Will we be blessed with 34" at Paine Field by the 18th? I believe we just might. I cannot recall that depth of coverage in my lifetime. One can hope and dream. // Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 PDX north gon' see a half meter. 2 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 12z GEFS 500mb pattern improved significantly very close to arctic and mirroring the Op run. Very good sign.Definitely colder. I am a believer now after the 12Z GFS suite... its coming. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 12z GEFS 500mb Day 7-16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Definitely colder.I am a believer now after the 12Z GFS suite... its coming. Were getting dangerously close to being able to say this pattern is a lock. 1 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 IF this continues the ensembles are going to trend colder and colder. C'MON!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Tiger took a look at the 12z and...well... 5 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Jaya thinks it’s something wrong with the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 12z GFS Ensembles Portlandhttp://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png Seattlehttp://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png Yakimahttp://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Yakima_USA_ens.png Vancouver BChttp://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Jaya thinks it’s something wrong with the GFSOh? I don't think I like hearing that. What specifically ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Jaya thinks it’s something wrong with the GFSFreaking Jaya 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Oh? I don't think I like hearing that. What specifically ?Models have not converged today! US mdl is very cold starting Sat or Sat night with temps falling to 0 in BLI and 15 at PAE. Canadian - coolish but nothing special. German mdl hints at something between the two. Watching, but think something is wrong with the US model. #wawx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Wow incredible model runs. Was very excited to get service again and scan the models and forums. 2 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Models have not converged today! US mdl is very cold starting Sat or Sat night with temps falling to 0 in BLI and 15 at PAE. Canadian - coolish but nothing special. German mdl hints at something between the two. Watching, but think something is wrong with the US model. #wawxHmmm...... So a cold bias basically. He thinks so anyways. Canadian is "coolish" because the 500mb pattern isn't there yet. I don't really understand his reasoning unless I am not understanding something here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 I'm thinking not all of January is this weak. Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Models have not converged today! US mdl is very cold starting Sat or Sat night with temps falling to 0 in BLI and 15 at PAE. Canadian - coolish but nothing special. German mdl hints at something between the two. Watching, but think something is wrong with the US model. #wawxThis is what he said last night: Jay Albrecht @AlbrechtJay 11h11 hours ago MoreStarting to wonder if the new US model (FV3/GFS) is having issues. The operational run continues to bring arctic air into W WA next Sat night. Many ensemble members support. But the Canadian and ECMWF solutions show shallower cold air bottled up by Rockies (reasonable). #wawx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 JAYA and SilverFallsAndrew not on board...Tim and everyone else are now on board! 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 In the next two days anyone who watches the news will be getting edumucated on the impending glory and bounty that mother nature has in store for us all!Even CliffMass will be on board shortly/Were getting dangerously close to being able to say this pattern is a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Well that settles it...I don’t like him (reasonable). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Models have not converged today! US mdl is very cold starting Sat or Sat night with temps falling to 0 in BLI and 15 at PAE. Canadian - coolish but nothing special. German mdl hints at something between the two. Watching, but think something is wrong with the US model. #wawxEpic troll. 1 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Important that we see the 12z Euro continue the steps the 00z took last night towards the GFS solution.If it does, then maybe something is wrong with the Euro too...? "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Jaya and tim are going to join forces to make sure this thing doesn’t happen. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Were getting dangerously close to being able to say this pattern is a lock.A lock for me is inside 2 days, sometimes 1. I've learned the hard way on that one. If ALL or the majority of the models are locked in like in 08 then I can go out to maybe 4-5 days for a "lock", barely. Just my humble, having been burned too many times, opinion. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex_Snakes Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Just read Jaya's tweets too. Something to watch with the GFS vs. Euro, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 12z ECMWF Day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Jaya and tim are going to join forces to make sure this thing doesn’t happen. I am on board... its a freight train roaring towards us and its coming. Sorry... you are screwed for your Hawaii trip. I would not really have a problem going back to Hawaii though. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 A lock for me is inside 2 days, sometimes 1. I've learned the hard way on that one. If ALL or the majority of the models are locked in like in 08 then I can go out to maybe 4-5 days for a "lock", barely. Just my humble, having been burned too many times, opinion. models have been converging on this pattern nicely...but I totally agree I'm not sold until we get a few days closer...I am slightly excited though. 2 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Bottom line is that we are now 7 days out from the cold period basically starting per the GFS and GEFS. And its not backing down... actually the opposite. Cannot be discounted any longer. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 I am not discounting the GFS solution at all. I think eventually the EURO and GFS will both move towards each other. My main point is, what it is showing next weekend and a few days beyond is not an arctic blast. It has snow potential and at face value could get pretty chilly. But we are talking January 2007 at the top end and more likely January 2002, 08, 12 type stuff. Again beyond hour 300 who knows, and next weekend could trend colder, but -9C with 518 thickness and onshore flow is not as cold at the surface as people in here are acting like. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Like others have already pointed out, JAYA said what happens in Alaska is the key. Jay Albrecht @AlbrechtJay 9m9 minutes ago MoreThe ridging in Alaska is key. US model ... yes. ECMWF, not so much. This results big differences seen in British Columbia. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 I am not discounting the GFS solution at all. I think eventually the EURO and GFS will both move towards each other. My main point is, what it is showing next weekend and a few days beyond is not an arctic blast. It has snow potential and at face value could get pretty chilly. But we are talking January 2007 at the top end and more likely January 2002, 08, 12 type stuff. Again beyond hour 300 who knows, and next weekend could trend colder, but -9C with 518 thickness and onshore flow is not as cold at the surface as people in here are acting like.SpotWX shows a high of -10C here on Sunday. If that’s not arctic i don’t know what is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 I am not discounting the GFS solution at all. I think eventually the EURO and GFS will both move towards each other. My main point is, what it is showing next weekend and a few days beyond is not an arctic blast. It has snow potential and at face value could get pretty chilly. But we are talking January 2007 at the top end and more likely January 2002, 08, 12 type stuff. Again beyond hour 300 who knows, and next weekend could trend colder, but -9C with 518 thickness and onshore flow is not as cold at the surface as people in here are acting like. Ah, but Yakima mean temp is at -10c to -12c, so we have backdoor cold and if there's any east wind even if 850s at PDX are -8c, there would be a low level arctic blast Gorge, Columbia Basin funneling into PDX. It would be really cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Cannot be discounted any longer.No, but apparently it can be jaya'ed... 1 "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Not sure the ECMWF can even be trusted at this point. Here is what it showed one week ago this morning for today... And here is what actually happened... **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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