TacomaWaWx Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Snowed for a bit, changed to rain then back to snow. Precip had died off now. Currently 36. 0.06" of precip today. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Comparing the 12Z GEFS to the 00Z, you have to squint pretty hard to see major differences. Interestingly the 00Z ensembles have more members between -15 and -20C at PDX than the 12Z ensembles, but the mean is slightly warmer on the 00Z because there are a few warm members that were not present on the 12Z chart. 12z: 00z: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 I'll take 30 degrees heavy snow over light snow and 19 all day long.Seconded. Plus, a depressing large number of models have been putting Bellingham in a “stink hole” of just about the least snow of any lowland area for several days now. Even though it was clown range, the apparent emerging consensus had me a little concerned. The “stink hole” seems gone from the most recent batch. Anyhow, more runs to come. Things will doubtless keep bouncing around a bit from run to run. It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Well we did have about 3hrs of great snow in 2011 before the southerlies kicked in. And didn’t we have a nice February event that year as well? Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Well...the bomb cyclone stayed in the same location for days and days (actually went a bit south). Seems unrealistic for this one to go too far north. We'll see though. look at the 500mb differences between the 00z GFS and the 12z. The blocking ridge to the west has been pushed a bit further NW, doesn't suppress things as well. The ULL/trough over us has pushed further east. The 00z GFS still gives a lot of snow to PDX but another shift in this same direction with equal magnitude would start to get pretty ugly. Hopefully it is just noise but IMO it does seem like it could become a trend. Need to check ensembles to see where this run sits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 look at the 500mb differences between the 00z GFS and the 12z. The blocking ridge to the west has been pushed a bit further NW, doesn't suppress things as well. The ULL/trough over us has pushed further east. The 00z GFS still gives a lot of snow to PDX but another shift in this same direction with equal magnitude would start to get pretty ugly. Hopefully it is just noise but IMO it does seem like it could become a trend. Would be a silly way to ruin the fun for sure. Hopefully not a trend. "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Snowed for a bit, changed to rain then back to snow. Precip had died off now. Currently 36. 0.06" of precip today.35* across the bay .06 as wellWasn’t there to witness the state of the precipitation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Abbotsford has thickness drop to 497 on the 0Z. Ensemble mean bottoms out at -17.6 for 850s. Not a good sign A toasty 501 dm thickness in Victoria, it was 499 in an earlier run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Would be a silly way to ruin the fun for sure. Hopefully not a trend.It’s what can easily happen when you don’t have a strong anti-cyclone to help drive it south and west. Flatiron can probably explain it better... 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Looks like fun times ahead! wether it lasts 4-5 days or longer is too hard to tell right now. Either way looks like next week could be pretty epic still. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Looks like fun times ahead! wether it lasts 4-5 days or longer is too hard to tell right now. Either way looks like next week could be pretty epic still.Matt is not on board. Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Matt is not on board.Sunday’s 18z....................... My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Matt is not on board. We're f*cked? Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Temp down to 30! Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Snow knocked out the internet for a bit. Winding down now. A cool 1". Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Almost 10pm!!! #pray4pdx My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Sorry you had to plug your car in. I'm not, just plugging in the coolant heater so I have a warm car. Its a diesel so it would take forever to warm up otherwise. Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 5 or 6 days of cold and snow to a classic transition event is a logical solution. Last February spoiled us. 2 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Comparing the 12Z GEFS to the 00Z, you have to squint pretty hard to see major differences. Interestingly the 00Z ensembles have more members between -15 and -20C at PDX than the 12Z ensembles, but the mean is slightly warmer on the 00Z because there are a few warm members that were not present on the 12Z chart. 12z: 0A2BBE56-6532-48E8-988E-BF65056EAB94.png 00z: 3CFBE653-ED14-4142-8FEE-6EDA22EC1A10.pngYep. Room to turn even colder! Yakima ensembles. Prolonged backdoor cold and look at all of the cold members to -15c suggesting a possible reload backdoor blast. Hmmm.. Portland BARELY above freezing and when you factor in the deep snow cover. We won't make 30. The Dalles only warms to 27 degrees for high temp. Surface temps for Yakima doesn't warm above 23 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Did we lose Jim as well? Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 look at the 500mb differences between the 00z GFS and the 12z. The blocking ridge to the west has been pushed a bit further NW, doesn't suppress things as well. The ULL/trough over us has pushed further east. The 00z GFS still gives a lot of snow to PDX but another shift in this same direction with equal magnitude would start to get pretty ugly. Hopefully it is just noise but IMO it does seem like it could become a trend. Need to check ensembles to see where this run sits.ensemble looks better to me 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 And nothing even remotely nearby on the radar, so don't expect anything for a while at least.Yeah, some faint stuff starting to show on the west side of VI. The trajectory isn't right for us but hopefully its a sign of more to come. Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 EURO! My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
runninthruda206 Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Here we go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Seconded. Plus, a depressing large number of models have been putting Bellingham in a “stink hole” of just about the least snow of any lowland area for several days now. Even though it was clown range, the apparent emerging consensus had me a little concerned. The “stink hole” seems gone from the most recent batch. Anyhow, more runs to come. Things will doubtless keep bouncing around a bit from run to run. You're in a good spot right now IMO. I think BLI will do pretty well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 STNEMEVORPMI ORUE ROJAM 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 ensemble looks better to me Yeah ensembles appear to look fine. Better than the OP IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 !YAS TNOD UOY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 STNEMEVORPMI ORUE ROJAMConflicting reports! We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
runninthruda206 Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 where is that low gonna fall on sunday!!! i need to know!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 STNEMEVORPMI ORUE ROJAMWOLLOF OT TCA HGUOT A SAW Z21...WONK T’NOD I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 STNEMEVORPMI ORUE ROJAMMake Richard Simmons great again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 PDX!!!!!! https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=neU0PWenT9Q My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Make Richard Simmons great again.Sounds like you’ve been around for awhile. What was your old username? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lisa0527 Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Is there still hope? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Make Richard Simmons great again. Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Is there still hope? Um....the hope would be the crazy cold within 240 hours, I think. "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Is there still hope?Pray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Him on David Letterman was some of the funniest around. 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 5 or 6 days of cold and snow to a classic transition event is a logical solution. Last February spoiled us. Seems like a very plausible scenario. I'm fine just having a few days of snow. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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