Deweydog Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Color me impressed. The 18z GFS not only doesn't go toward the ECMWF it's actually colder than the previous few GFS runs. 510 thickness line much further south.It did shift north. The 00Z will be much more telling. If the 18Z GFS was showing a sunny day in July just 4 days away and EPS mean showed rain... I would not be too hopeful. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 First c-zone sliding east...won't be long before the next one appears. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Looks snowy. But I’ll be skeptical if we don’t get decent snow tonightOne has nothing to do with the other. We could get no snow tonight and be buried on Thursday. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 500mb tells the story. The energy with the shortwave de-amplifies as it approach the coast and subsequently the surface reflection weakens as well.Yeah you can see why the modeling leans that way but it’s still a pretty unlikely scenario. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IceKing Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 What part of Marysville are you located? A mile West of Cedarcrest Gold Course 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Getting noticeably colder Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 12, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Looks snowy. But I’ll be skeptical if we don’t get decent snow tonight The interesting thing about the 12z Euro is it was worse from the very start. Tonight's event, how cold it gets, how robust of a northerly gradient we have tomorrow evening, the mid week low, etc. If the thing tonight goes well it will make me feel a lot better. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeacherLori Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Newbie here - been lurking for about a week. Possibly seeing some snow in Lynnwood, but I can't really commit because I don't want to jinx it. (Total snow fanatic here! I can't get enough of it! So happy to have found this community - thanks Jake!) 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Getting wet snow now, the occasional big fluffy flake in the mix Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Band just moved through downtown pdx. Hail/heavy rain had some snow VERY briefly mixed in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Newbie here - been lurking for about a week. Possibly seeing some snow in Lynnwood, but I can't really commit because I don't want to jinx it. (Total snow fanatic here! I can't get enough of it! So happy to have found this community - thanks Jake!)We need to clean up our act! Welcome. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbustcity Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 34 degrees and heavy mix in N.E. Seattle. Accumulating on grass and cars 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 34 degrees and heavy mix in N.E. Seattle. Accumulating on grass and carsYour reality is defying your user name! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 34 degrees and heavy mix in N.E. Seattle. Accumulating on grass and cars looks like the next c-zone is trying to take aim directly at seattle. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 looks like the next c-zone is trying to take aim directly at seattle.I think this one will dissipate and a new one will form North of Everett in North Snohomish/South Skagit County. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 I think this one will dissipate and a new one will form North of Everett in North Snohomish/South Skagit County.I agree. I don't see anything taking aim at Seattle right now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 My sister in Mill Creek said it started snowing 10 mins ago and it’s sticking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 It has dropped below 40F here (after a high of 45F). Who knows, maybe tomorrow will be below average Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 I think this one will dissipate and a new one will form North of Everett in North Snohomish/South Skagit County. looked like some light radar returns off the NE Olympics were indicating it continuing over Seattle still but wouldn't surprise me if it went to the Snohomish Skagit line either. Not likely the c-zone will hit me tonight anyways lol. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 it's beautiful and sunny with light snow flakes coming down in the swamp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Tim's getting blasted tonight. Heard it here first. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Snow in bothell sticking on cement now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Starting to be able to see the WRF is wrong now. Here is what it showed from 1-4 p.m. Should be dry in Bothell and dumping snow here. Neither are happening. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbustcity Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Coming down hard. 33 degrees.trim.731FFC80-9B04-4314-9B59-C61970527A5B.MOV Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Trees be swaying down here!42*32 dp attached video....only way I know how if you want to see fir trees move feeding the CZtrim.810F2C84-9C43-46D6-8CDE-8E9876A63293.MOV Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Winter Storm Watch upgraded to a Warning for EPSL. A little surprised they didn't downgrade to a WWA. Calling for 2-4 inches instead of 2-6. Edit: Looks like they did downgrade for the I-5 corridor. Ya just downgraded to advisory here. That’s too bad and the upcoming week not looking as good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Sticking snow in Lake City in North Seattle. 6 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 To close for comfort power outages increasing down hereFederal Way Costco.....not a good day for an outage! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Huh, maybe the 18Z wasn't that bad. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Huh, maybe the 18Z wasn't that bad.We’ll know by Thursday. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Yeah 18z GFS is not what we wanted to see. Significantly less snow than the 12z. At this point an inch or two on either Monday or Wednesday is looking like the realistic upper bound for this in PDX. Whatever falls will be gone fairly soon in the southerly flow after. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Pretty much cut back on totals everywhere with the latest graphic. Monroe was 4-6 inches this morning, now 1-2.Everett was 3-4 now less than 1.Mt. Vernon 1-2 now less than 1.Seattle 2-3 now less than 1. But hey, look, North Bend was the only place that totals went up! Was 3-4 inches now 4-6. It's not right. Elevation confusion there. Happens all the time out here on those maps. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Ya just downgraded to advisory here. That’s too bad and the upcoming week not looking as good.You missed the 18z Dewey? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parksvillewx Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 North wind been picking up here the last hour. 20mph gusts so far. Been sitting at 35F most of the day, DP's starting to drop. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Pretty much cut back on totals everywhere with the latest graphic. Monroe was 4-6 inches this morning, now 1-2.Everett was 3-4 now less than 1.Mt. Vernon 1-2 now less than 1.Seattle 2-3 now less than 1. But hey, look, North Bend was the only place that totals went up! Was 3-4 inches now 4-6. Makes no sense to me. I'm not saying this map will be wrong, but I haven't seen anything happen to warrent changing the forecast that dramatically. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Yeah 18z GFS is not what we wanted to see. Significantly less snow than the 12z. At this point an inch or two on either Monday or Wednesday is looking like the realistic upper bound for this in PDX. Whatever falls will be gone fairly soon in the southerly flow after. I think Wednesday still has the potential to drop 2-5 inches. Strong systems bring lots of surprises, to say the least. It's basically an unchanged run, hopefully the weirdly deviatory EURO will compromise for once. 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 I think Wednesday still has the potential to drop 2-5 inches. Strong systems bring lots of surprises, to say the least. It's basically an unchanged run, hopefully the weirdly deviatory EURO will compromise for once.The Euro is by no means an outlier. None of the models are at this point because it’s been handled pretty poorly so far but if anything the GFS is more outlierish. 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Makes no sense to me. I'm not saying this map will be wrong, but I haven't seen anything happen to warrent changing the forecast that dramatically.Different shift. Must be a more conservative shift working. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted January 12, 2020 Report Share Posted January 12, 2020 Agassiz reporting NE wind of 32mph gusting to 43 with a temp of 29 at 2PM.That doesn't sound like something that's just going to get stuck in Bellingham... Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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