Requiem Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Huh. Splitty jet stream-- yet we get soaked according to the GFS. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 02/12/19. Really was incredible to see.It sure was. That was an amazing nearly 6 weeks of weather! 3 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 What are we complaining about?I was wondering the same thing... Last week was fun, got to golf today in great weather and looks like I will be able to a few times this coming week as well, just gonna bide my time waiting for the next snowy period. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 That’s a super niño looking pattern on the GFS. The WWB and rapid spike in AAM/deposition in the tropics is also consistent with this. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 That’s a super niño looking pattern on the GFS. The WWB and rapid spike in AAM/deposition in the tropics is also consistent with this.Winter over or mid feb still on the table? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Next round will begin around February 22nd. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Winter over or mid feb still on the table?I think mid/late Feb is still doable. The next 3 or 4 weeks aren’t gonna do much, though. 4 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 We'll get a favorable cold pattern here sometime in April. Then a bunch of 90F days before another mega-torch next winter. Then 21-22 will be a good one. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Looks like a ton of warm rain in NW Oregon later this week. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 KONA LOW 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Unfortunately most of this would be rain in the mountains too. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Next round will begin around February 22nd.I agree! Since that is the day we get home. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 I think mid/late Feb is still doable. The next 3 or 4 weeks aren’t gonna do much, though.My only concern is that the Alaskan vortex is back and it took forever to dismantle the first time. We don't have much time as we are nearing the end of January. Once we start getting into late February it takes a real top tier blast to be memorable. Its really a disappointment that this last blast did not live up to its potential in terms of extremes and duration. The potential was there for it to be a historical epic cold blast but the models collapsed at the last minute. Thankfully we still got something good, but its not nearly as good in comparison to what it could have been. Really disappointing. I have a good feeling for February but I'm a little nervous that what we just experienced may be our winter this year. I like the signals in the Euro weeklies. We'll see what they show tomorrow. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 I agree! Since that is the day we get home.That is the day we come home as well. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 The end of the 0z GFS is gold for sure! A lot of colder GFS ensemble members showing up as well. The plot thickens. The key is going to be how those pieces of high pressure shown during week 2 come together. The EPS has been picking on this also. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Since the new 1991-2020 climactic averages are coming out next year, here's a map of the US and how much temperature change there is with the new averages (with only one year removed): https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1216030340541632517?s=20That guy is a climate change alarmist whom I would take his thoughts with a grain of dog . Just my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 That guy is a climate change alarmist whom I would take his thoughts with a grain of dog s**t. Just my opinion.That map is scary. Hope it’s not that bad ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 The end of the 0z GFS is gold for sure! A lot of colder GFS ensemble members showing up as well. The plot thickens. The key is going to be how those pieces of high pressure shown during week 2 come together. The EPS has been picking on this also. <_ src="%7B___base_url___%7D/uploads/emoticons/default_huh.png" alt=":huh:"> Oh brother! Really?! Lol Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Looks like a sloppy snowstorm over East/Central Vancouver Island at hr 312. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Febulous. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Febulous.surprised you are up this late the night before MLK! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 That guy is a climate change alarmist whom I would take his thoughts with a grain of dog s**t. Just my opinion.I disagree with this characterization of Brian. He’s pretty mainstream. And he didn’t create the ESRL R1 dataset..he’s merely mapping/extrapolating what’s already there. If there are issues with the data quality, that’s on NOAA. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 We have a pretty solid window of opportunity coming up in early Feb. Some promising model runs in that time frame and the EPS teleconnection forecasts continue to trend better. Finally a signal for some -WPO which is something that has been lacking this winter, and the PNA goes negative again. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Pretty gusty for the past hour or so. Shook the house a few times while I was finishing Watchmen. You will never feel cheated in the wind department here. Sometimes the east wind blows for days. The best I have ever seen was in Dec 2005 when it blew hard for two solid days with gusts to 60 during the entire period. Clear skies the entire time. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Jim is right... there does appear to be another opportunity in early February. The 00Z EPS mean looked similar to its previous runs... until the end when it now shows the cold air over Alaska moving south into the PNW. Its definitely something to watch. Here is day 15: Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Its MLK Day!!! Cloudy and 48 here to start the day. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Very early spring like MLK Day! Thanks Matt!! 48 and cloudy as well. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Raining and 36F here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Raining and 36F here. Hey, give us our weather back! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 A top 5 warm January for many places in the western lowlands (south of Everett) is starting to look pretty likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 A top 5 warm January for many places in the western lowlands (south of Everett) is starting to look pretty likely. That coupled with Tim's EPS map this morning, starting to feel a little deja vu. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 That coupled with Tim's EPS map this morning, starting to feel a little deja vu.February & March 2019 redux is in the works! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 So the price we all pay for 3-4 days of cold is to torch the rest of the month. So stupid. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 That coupled with Tim's EPS map this morning, starting to feel a little deja vu. Tough call... the January results might be about the same from Seattle southward this year but it was a very different month than January 2019 which was a region wide torch and terrible for the mountains. We actually had a decent arctic intrusion this month with significant lowland snow and ridiculous amounts of mountain snow. Also... January of 2019 was brutally cold to our east and then the pattern retrograded. That is not what is happening now at all. And at this point... the cold air intrusion shown on the EPS looks fairly transitory. So its tempting to say its the same thing when looking at it just from the perspective of Portland for example. But I don't think that is the case. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 So the price we all pay for 3-4 days of cold is to torch the rest of the month. So stupid.Or for some of us it was just 3-4 days of slightly below normal temps. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Or for some of us is was just 3-4 days of slightly below normal temps.Yeah and the “cold” was mostly for the northern interior. It wasn’t all that impressive anywhere else. I hope February brings the icebox. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Jim is right... there does appear to be another opportunity in early February. The 00Z EPS mean looked similar to its previous runs... until the end when it now shows the cold air over Alaska moving south into the PNW. Its definitely something to watch. Here is day 15: Looks like we could have another February deliver after all possibly. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 This, would be a lot of snow (St. John's in Newfoundland). I don't think I've seen a time lapse where the entire car gets buried. Maybe coming in early February? https://twitter.com/CBCNL/status/1218688266351845383 2 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 A top 5 warm January for many places in the western lowlands (south of Everett) is starting to look pretty likely. It's basically been a drier version of January 1953, that month also had some arctic air make it down to the border, albeit not as intensely. Upside to that is the cold in AK actually has been impressive for a change. Anchorage is posting a -14 departure right now and is looking at another extended stretch of deep cold. If the month ended today it would be their coldest January on record and 2nd coldest month overall. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Tough call... the January results might be about the same from Seattle southward this year but it was a very different month than January 2019 which was a region wide torch and terrible for the mountains. We actually had a decent arctic intrusion this month with significant lowland snow and ridiculous amounts of mountain snow. Also... January of 2019 was brutally cold to our east and then the pattern retrograded. That is not what is happening now at all. And at this point... the cold air intrusion shown on the EPS looks fairly transitory. So its tempting to say its the same thing when looking at it just from the perspective of Portland for example. But I don't think that is the case. There's a lot of differences from last fall/winter compared to this one. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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