Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[James Jones]

Yeah I mean I barely have some of the best food and beer on the west coast within walking distance, bars for any type of personality imaginable, a terrific bookstore, people are very friendly, but on the other hand I did see a story on local news about some homeless people here!

 

Sometimes you see a pink haired college hipster/feminist say some annoying stuff too. ******* awful unlivable liberal cesspool. I'd much rather live in backwoods Oklahoma. 

[jcmcgaffey]

Aside from the warmth it’s seemed like a pretty average winter cloud and rainfall wise. Seems like they find a new stat like this every year.

not up here. Sistek posts all kinds of weather stats and they are usually very interesting. The last 10years or so seem to be mostly rain and warmth stats since those are by far the most records we have been setting up here. We did have a few cold, wind stats in there and a summer dry streak a few years ago that were notable records.

[TT-SEA]

not up here. Sistek posts all kinds of weather stats and they are usually very interesting. The last 10years or so seem to be mostly rain and warmth stats since those are by far the most records we have been setting up here. We did have a few cold, wind stats in there and a summer dry streak a few years ago that were notable records.

 

 

Yeah... it could rain 50 inches in a month and a certain person on here would ignore it and say it seems about normal.

 

SEA is just about to 9 inches now... OLM is over 15 inches... HQM is over 19 inches... and UIL is over 27 inches.   All top tier wet for January.

 

And its rained on just about every day since the middle of December... when we normal have 12 to 13 dry days each winter month.   Its been unusually wet and cloudy this winter.    Not a single sunny day in 2 months.

 

But I would say the +2.7 temperature departure at SEA is the real big story this month.    The has been nothing interesting in terms of rain.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You know you have lived a good life when you consider this area to be a cesspool. You are such a dramatic person.

 

Perhaps. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sometimes you see a pink haired college hipster/feminist say some annoying stuff too. f***** awful unlivable liberal cesspool. I'd much rather live in backwoods Oklahoma. 

 

Certainly would not rather live in Oklahoma. But the homeless situation in Portland is pretty out of control. 

[Phil]

At day 10... the 12Z ECMWF is about a far away from cold and snowy as a model can get in the winter.

Losing the SSW hurts. D10-15 we have a super-PV over the pole yet again, at near record strength.

 

Every time a favorable pattern for wave driving attempts to develop, that broad Aleutian Ridge/EHEM-IO forcing returns before it even has a chance to go to work.

 

That Aleutian Ridge pattern can be great for PNW cold but it shuts down the NPAC conduit for wave driving too, which will strengthen the vortex with time..so ideally you want the PV as weak as possible initially, then have that pattern establish so the cold is free to flow south. That’s what happened last year, with the pattern in January killing the PV then the pattern flip in February having no problem delivering.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Moisture looks pretty sparse once the cold front passes through this weekend. Oh well. 

[Phil]

[Phil]

Though I enjoyed my recent visit to Colorado I do not think I could ever live there. Not my cup of tea.

 

I love where I live, but the Salem area up through PDX is a cesspool.

 

The Olympic Peninsula is pretty nice, or up toward Bellingham. I am likely here for a few years, though I may start working quite a bit up in the Spokane area over the next year or two.

What’s wrong with Colorado? Denver is probably my #1 or #2 ideal “move to” climates as of now.

 

Either that or a lake effect climate like Muskegon or Erie that also gets severe thunderstorm action.

[OysterPrintout]

[jakerepp]

So you’re saying I could find a way to enjoy this swamp a** piece of s**t climate in July/August if I wanted to?

I don't think it's really possible.

[Phil]

[TT-SEA]

One of the wettest places in WA might set their record for the wettest month in history.   Not just the wettest January.

 

 

 

The rain has been pretty notable this month.    

[MossMan]

I could never live anywhere with high humidity summer climates. The one time I visited family in Minneapolis in July years ago did me in...And I’m sure it’s much worse in the south.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What’s wrong with Colorado? Denver is probably my #1 or #2 ideal “move to” climates as of now.

 

Either that or a lake effect climate like Muskegon or Erie that also gets severe thunderstorm action.

 

Way too populated an area for my taste. But coming from your area that would not be an issue. Traffic is horrible (Worse than Portland, not as bad as Seattle.), high cost of living, not really any trees unless you live in the Western suburbs. 

[Timmy Supercell]

It sort of takes away some of the January-climate-is-warming bit if at the same time places are recording impressive rainfall stats. And what if next year we see a cold January?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS staying consistent with coolish troughing for next weekend. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It sort of takes away some of the January-climate-is-warming bit if at the same time places are recording impressive rainfall stats. And what if next year we see a cold January?

 

IDK they kind of go hand in hand. The warmest January on record at PDX was also the wettest. 

[TT-SEA]

GFS staying consistent with coolish troughing for next weekend. 

 

Its slowly trending warmer.   

 

Compare next weekend on the GFS to the GFS runs from 2 days ago.  

[Omegaraptor]

IDK they kind of go hand in hand. The warmest January on record at PDX was also the wettest. 

 

I actually have a chart that shows nationwide maps of whether rain comes with below or above average temperatures by season. I'll post it in a bit. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Its slowly trending warmer.   

 

Compare next weekend on the GFS to the GFS runs from 2 days ago.  

 

Trending more realistic. It's the same overall. The ensemble mean has been around -5/-6C at the 850mb level for PDX in that time period for a couple days. So probably a nice trough, but nothing too exciting. Remember how much the EURO struggled with this weekends trough. GFS held rock solid. 

[jakerepp]

 

Sorry....I've been in that area in the dead of summer a few times and yeah, it is unbearable. Sounds like you knew that, though 

[jakerepp]

I could never live anywhere with high humidity summer climates. The one time I visited family in Minneapolis in July years ago did me in...And I’m sure it’s much worse in the south.

I spent a month in the Tampa area playing baseball. This was late mid June-mid July. It was miserable. 

The only redeeming qualities were the thunderstorms that rolled through almost daily. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS and its ensembles are pretty consistent wanting to develop GOA ridging. EURO weeklies seemed to agree. The bigger potential is probably during the back half of the month. 

[Omegaraptor]

[jakerepp]

GFS and its ensembles are pretty consistent wanting to develop GOA ridging. EURO weeklies seemed to agree. The bigger potential is probably during the back half of the month. 

When I am on vacation? Sure, why not. 

[TT-SEA]

Trending more realistic. It's the same overall. The ensemble mean has been around -5/-6C at the 850mb level for PDX in that time period for a couple days. So probably a nice trough, but nothing too exciting. Remember how much the EURO struggled with this weekends trough. GFS held rock solid. 

 

 

Maybe... but its clearly trending warmer and that could continue.   

 

The 12Z EPS also shows a cooler air mass next weekend... but its not that interesting either.    So they are not too far apart.

 

[jakerepp]

D7A765B9-CABF-4B56-86D2-2B685C0AF491.jpeg

That's pretty telling. And obviously not surprising. 

[MossMan]

Where is this big wind? It’s currently breezy but nothing special yet. Last night was much windier. Just warm, dry, and breezy at the moment.

[TacomaWaWx]

Where is this big wind? It’s currently breezy but nothing special yet. Last night was much windier. Just warm, dry, and breezy at the moment.

don’t think it’s really supposed to start up til this evening and tonight.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty chilly GFS run. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Yeah... it could rain 50 inches in a month and a certain person on here would ignore it and say it seems about normal.

 

SEA is just about to 9 inches now... OLM is over 15 inches... HQM is over 19 inches... and UIL is over 27 inches. All top tier wet for January.

 

And its rained on just about every day since the middle of December... when we normal have 12 to 13 dry days each winter month. Its been unusually wet and cloudy this winter. Not a single sunny day in 2 months.

 

But I would say the +2.7 temperature departure at SEA is the real big story this month. The has been nothing interesting in terms of rain.

It’s been an average January it rains like this every year. *sarcasm*

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Where is this big wind? It’s currently breezy but nothing special yet. Last night was much windier. Just warm, dry, and breezy at the moment.

I swear the forecast have got worse over the years. I remember back in the day when they issued a wind warning they happened for the most part. My area is under a wind warning and i called the kids to see what it was like they said calm and the flag hanging still.

[van city]

Tim, any update on the 18z GFS?

[Skagit Weather]

Where is this big wind? It’s currently breezy but nothing special yet. Last night was much windier. Just warm, dry, and breezy at the moment.

 

Wind just broke through here. Not overwhelmingly strong at the moment, but sustained 20+ mph with gusts in the 30s.

[ItBurnsOregon]

Tim, any update on the 18z GFS?

Worse than the 12z.

[FroYoBro]

Still sitting at 60 in Tigard. The ground is pretty warm which makes me nervous that the snow that falls on Sunday might have trouble sticking.

 

[The Swamp]

Yesterday on the Oregon Coast.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This January just needs to hurry up and end already...yeesh.

[The Swamp]

Last night in Cannon Beach was awesome.  The wind howled and  battered the hotel.  Beat it like a rented mule.  Sheets and sheets of rain.