January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[iFred]

Heh. Cold rain.

[SnowySeeker50]

welp

[Meatyorologist]

Seen this movie before

[Slushy Inch]

Stalls on gem

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

You guys seriously just going to ignore the GEM like that? 

Go figure.

[Requiem]

EURO is our only chance of salvation. I almost hope it'll cave just so we don't have to keep on falsely hoping lmao

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Stalls 

Yeah could tell it was going to do that.... Need a miracle from the GEFS, Euro/EPS

[BLI snowman]

January doing January things.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The GEM is actually a lot closer than the GFS. 

[iFred]

I still have a network thing to fix, a database backup to make and a first run and restoring the forum archive.

I’ll probably finish that work tonight.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Seen this movie before

If Shawshank is, which it’s ALWAYS on, I ALWAYS end up watching it.

[TacomaWx]

I’ve seen the models come back around from worse than this. 

[The Cats Meow]

Someone get that cold air a passport.  Denied at the border.

[Meatyorologist]

Gut punch of a run  Saw the weakening trend with the block, was waiting for a run like this.

If we want it to reverse, we'd want to see better runs beginning tomorrow.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Deweydog said:

If Shawshank is, which it’s ALWAYS on, I ALWAYS end up watching it.

Same here.   Can't flip past that movie without getting sucked in.

[umadbro]

Alright fellas and fellettes, 

this happens before every event, every time.

breathe, in, out…

[GHweatherChris]

5 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

As I worried earlier, the stronger trending Tuesday storm directly correlates to much weaker penetration of cold air and way less moisture for snow on Thursday. Fugly trend. That Tuesday storm is the fly in the ointment.

Both maps show the last 4 GFS runs. Tuesday storm trends 24mb stronger, Thursday storm basically disappears and gets warmer. D**n.

 

 

 

You just had to go and fix your login didn''t ya, smh 

[Doinko]

Just now, iFred said:

I still have a network thing to fix, a database backup to make and a first run and restoring the forum archive.

I’ll probably finish that work tonight.

Which months are missing from the forum? I know June 2021 and September 2020 aren't there but curious if there were others

[Phishy Wx]

9 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

I blame Ryan Maue for hyping this up if this thing busts.

F that guy, he did that on purpose

[Phil]

The way the goofus blows up a 972mb low from nothing.  What a useless model.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

Gotta have the pull back so that the media starts hedging. They jumped in too fast on this one. Then, when they see this and start walking things back, the public will be upset they were misled and get to repeat the whole "weather people don't know anything around here." Then, when they've discounted it and it's back on, they won't believe the new forecasts and when it does snow, they'll be taken by surprise and once again say the weather people don't know anything (even when they communicated the changes.) It's all part of the cycle. 

[GHweatherChris]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The GEM is actually a lot closer than the GFS. 

And other models follow the GEM..... according to some........

[Parrot]

7 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

Wow, it's over, just like that.

It rug pulled right at peak hype and confidence. Fully pulled out with a nonexistent ridge. Hope GEFS/Euro come to the rescue.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Keep the hope guys, we still have the GEFS and euro. There's always warm outliers, it is not over yet.

ITS STILL COMING!

[Winterdog]

I almost drained my well pump today.  At least I won't have to do that now.

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Kolk1604]

Clearly it's far from over since the GEM switch back, even if it's a little north. 

[Meatyorologist]

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, Parrot said:

It rug pulled right at peak hype and confidence. Fully pulled out with a nonexistent ridge. Hope GEFS/Euro come to the rescue.

Dat bich said uh uh, you ain't gonna get me preeegnaant!

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Just now, Winterdog said:

I almost drained my well pump today.  At least I won't have to do that now.

This is litterly 1 run. It still could happen.

[Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone]

 TRASH MODEL TOSS IT!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

The way the goofus blows up a 972mb low from nothing.  What a useless model.

Worth noting ECMWF does not show that low blowing up on Tuesday.

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Gut punch of a run  Saw the weakening trend with the block, was waiting for a run like this.

If we want it to reverse, we'd want to see better runs beginning tomorrow.

good thing is the pull happened outside of 120h

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, iFred said:

Heh. Cold rain.

A poor substitute for more 50-burgers, but I guess we will have to take it.

[Gradient Keeper]

How deflating....

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 24 minutes

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

The way the goofus blows up a 972mb low from nothing.  What a useless model.

I definitely think any event out of this is less likely to happen now, but I also don't buy that low pressure area bombing out that drastically when it has so little support from any other model. That pretty much singlehandedly screwed up this current run, anyhow...

[GHweatherChris]

This happened Dec 2008, and well, we know how that turned out.......

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

00Z IS TRAAASHHH, ITS STILL GONNA HAPPEN!

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

good thing is the pull happened outside of 120h

Feb 2019 did something similar iirc

[High Desert Mat?]

Hate being right all the time. I feel like Phil.