January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

The last 3 runs of the GEM have been so wildly different it's comical.   I am sure it will continue to swing all over until it starts narrowing down to a consistent solution.   The fact that the GFS did something totally different now as well tells us this is a very complex evolution.   As Phil mentioned... tiny changes can have massive downstream impacts.     I would heavily lean towards ECMWF/EPS.   But the fact is almost anything is still possible.

There are so many moving pieces to this.  We still have the vast majority of various model runs going cold though.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Snowlova said:

What does the GFS ensemble mean show though?

We'll know shortly.

[Weiner Warrior]

5 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

Then again, this run DOES drop 2 feet of snow by Sunday for the central Puget Sound. D**n. (But don't look at snowfall maps SEAN!)

GEM is King

[Doinko]

How did the ICON look on WB?

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

I'm saying this now so I can laugh at yall bipolar folks when I'm right. The 00z GEFS will be GREAT,  the 00z ECMWF will be amazing. All is not lost, there are always bad outliers.

 

When I'm right I'm 2½ hours ill quote this and laugh at yall

[Perturbed Member]

Just one time I want the truly arctic stuff to actually make it this far south and not get watered down as we approach the event. I just want to see what this climate is still capable of. I think we still have a shot since the Euro is onboard but this could still either be a total non-event or end up being a very sharp north-south gradient with cold air never really making it down here and western WA getting snow. I can't say I feel too great about it. 

I suspect tonight's 00z GFS is wonky though. This low bombing to 972mb like this just seems completely out of the blue and doesn't look right. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Mercurial]

5 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

Then again, this run DOES drop 2 feet of snow by Sunday for the central Puget Sound. D**n. (But don't look at snowfall maps SEAN!)

looks plausible 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

There honestly hasn't been any great model consistency with this yet. Sure, there was like one day where almost all the 12z runs looked good, but as soon as the GFS started looking good the GEM went south. The Euro was consistent for a few runs in a row. The other global models haven't offered much consistent agreement.

Usually when it's gonna happen, the models find more consistency by this point. Not perfect, but more.

I agree. I think a major event for Oregon is almost off the table now. Washington has a better chance in my opinion as less will have to break right. 

[snow_wizard]

Do we have any assurance the forum won't crash again?

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

Then again, this run DOES drop 2 feet of snow by Sunday for the central Puget Sound. D**n. (But don't look at snowfall maps SEAN!)

Kuchera is probably better and more realistic. Still crazy snowy.

[Winterdog]

I have been watching these models for close to 20 years and I can't remember a pullback of this magnitude over one run.  Seattle has gone from single digits to over 40 degrees on this run!  Long live above normal January's.

[SpaceRace22]

On the bright side, if we have to pick between models, the Euro is absolutely the one we want to have on our side at this range. The GFS is the better one for long term pattern changes, but for smaller "details" in the mid range like this, there's no question that the Euro is the better model. I'm betting that the 00z Euro will won't even flinch here.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

3 minutes ago, Snowlova said:

What does the GFS ensemble mean show though?

Welcome to the forums! GEFS isn't loaded yet but it will be soon. Going to be great model riding this weekend!

[GHweatherChris]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I need Matt to verify this.   Photographic memory and all.

Oh it happened, that was the single most memorable period of winter weather in my lifetime, there was a couple of stressful model runs that neutered it.

[Meatyorologist]

GEFS expectedly follows suit, but it's not quite as bad as the operational.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I agree. I think a major event for Oregon is almost off the table now. Washington has a better chance in my opinion as less will have to break right. 

A lot of recent runs of various models have still shown OR getting blasted.  Your last point is valid though.

[Ken in Wood Village]

I know the 00Z GFS run isn't a good run but it's still a few days away for the GFS to switch (if it does). We need to see how the Euro model does tonight. I'll look at it in the morning. I work tomorrow so I'm off to bed. I think the GFS is going through a mood swing...lol.

[Mercurial]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Kuchera is probably better and more realistic. Still crazy snowy.

Looks plausible (non-sarcastically, this time)

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Winterdog said:

I have been watching these models for close to 20 years and I can't remember a pullback of this magnitude over one run.  Seattle has gone from single digits to over 40 degrees on this run!  Long live above normal January's.

It's one run of one model.  Sheesh!

[SeanNyberg]

ICON and GEM jump back in for WILD winter weather after taking a little break.

GFS collapsed, with very strange and new hiccups.

GFS Ensembles still uncertain

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, SeanNyberg said:

ICON and GEM jump back in for WILD winter weather after taking a little break.

GFS collapsed, with very strange and new hiccups.

GFS Ensembles still uncertain

The bolded is important.  Eff the ICON.

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

I'm saying this now so I can laugh at yall bipolar folks when I'm right. The 00z GEFS will be GREAT,  the 00z ECMWF will be amazing. All is not lost, there are always bad outliers.

 

When I'm right I'm 2½ hours ill quote this and laugh at yall

Hey DaBears. How goes it?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We'll know shortly.

What does the robot model say? Ai

[SpaceRace22]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

It's one run of one model.  Sheesh!

I mean, to be fair it IS a pretty bad "one run" lol.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Hey DaBears. How goes it?

???????

[Winterdog]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

It's one run of one model.  Sheesh!

That was really my point.  A 32 degree bump in temperatures from one run to another is quite rare especially if the past couple days worth of runs were cold.  

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I agree. I think a major event for Oregon is almost off the table now. Washington has a better chance in my opinion as less will have to break right. 

It would be really nice to see the Euro take a step back towards its solution from last night. The 12z today was a much more precarious setup.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

ICON and GEM jump back in for WILD winter weather after taking a little break.

GFS collapsed, with very strange and new hiccups.

GFS Ensembles still uncertain

One thing to note about the GEM is that the last 3 runs have refused to bring the arctic air south of the border.   Things that don't usually trend more aggressive as it approaches.   But arctic air at the border is good enough to bring lots of snow to western WA.

[Dave]

Not looking good. Good bye.

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Day 4.5 (4-run trend) Same issue lack of amplitude. I doubt this run will be anywhere as good/cold as 18z, 12z

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

The bolded is important.  Eff the ICON.

Lol this is exactly what everyone was saying about the GEM after a couple bad runs.

But hey...it's better to have any models back on board than lose more.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

GEFS expectedly follows suit, but it's not quite as bad as the operational.

Yeah...the ensemble mean will normally reflect the operational to some extent.

[Mid Valley Duck]

Predictable step back on the GEFS

[Jbolin]

So, who's jumping off a bridge when tonight's ECMWF trends everything east of Fargo? 

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Lol this is exactly what everyone was saying about the GEM after a couple a few bad runs.

But hey...it's better to have any models back on board than lose more.

I mean, it did start the "bad trend" and has since said, fine, I will get back to teasing ya'll!!

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Lol this is exactly what everyone was saying about the GEM after a couple a few bad runs.

But hey...it's better to have any models back on board than lose more.

Actually two are way better tonight and one is suspect until we see some support.

[Gradient Keeper]

Not good trends. Not even a little. 80% chance this falls apart. Realistic. Go Euro!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Lol this is exactly what everyone was saying about the GEM after a couple bad runs.

But hey...it's better to have any models back on board than lose more.

Hopefully the GFS will be “accurate” again.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 00z UKMET just came in and it looks great! I love the UK!!!