January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[snow_wizard]

Yikes!!!!!

[LowerGarfield]

7 minutes ago, Corncob said:

I’m often really impressed with Spokane’s forecast discussion page. I find it both more entertaining and informative than Seattle’s.

I feel for NWS Seattle, though, they have an obscenely diverse area to cover in their discussions.

So true. Coast, Islands, Sound, Puget Sound Lowlands, West Slopes, and the convergence zone.

[Doinko]

Just now, SpaceRace22 said:

Portland proper is still perfectly fine on this. It's really just the typical south of Woodburn cutoff that gets screwed on this one.

It actually looks better for Roseburg from what I can tell

[snow_wizard]

GEM is historic!

[Mercurial]

7 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Cool reverse convergence zone

terrible, bring it north

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Yikes!!!!!

Absolutely blasted!

[TacomaWx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

GEM is historic!

498dm parked in Bellingham 

[SpaceRace22]

2 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

Please post one of those for a winter month.. thanks 

No

[Meatyorologist]

Death from above!

[snow_wizard]

Alrighty then!

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

GEM is historic!

Very cold and dry

[BLI snowman]

13 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

IIRC the GFS also had a stick up its butt when all the other models were on board with the Dec 2022 blast.

Yep, since they "upgraded" it in late 2022 it's actually become quite a bit stingier.

It's on an island of its own right now just like it was in January 2020, only the roles are reversed.

Trash model.

Edited January 7 by BLI snowman

[lowlandsnow]

Absurdly cold. It seems like there is real potential for a Jan 1950 like event

[Mercurial]

Pleasant evening in my area this evening.  Light snow under a WWA

 

[Meatyorologist]

So @TT-SEA, the Euro usually follows the GEM right?

[snow_wizard]

I think the lowest 850s on record for SEA was -22 in Feb 1956.

[LowerGarfield]

6 minutes ago, Sometimesdylan said:

I moved back to Juneau. 
 

was a good 5 year run in Everett… Oakland.. Anchorage… but good to be back home in Southeast AK.

Always loved checking into the forum here in winter as usually cold/snow for PNW means chilly temps and wind here.

 

looks to get highs into the teens weds/thurs here! 
 

Cleared up today. Pretty rare no-north-wind-clear-winter day up here. Definetly been feeling like the El Niño winters in the mid teens (2014-15? 15-16? I think?) 

This is so cool! Please post a bunch here. We need a SE Alaska poster!

[TT-SEA]

If I had to bet $1,000... I would say the ECMWF comes in much closer to the GEM.

And why don't they have DraftKings and FanDuel for betting on weather models??   

[Doinko]

Snowy for Corvallis-south! Snow in the single digits in places

 

[Kolk1604]

dude... 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Yikes!!!!!

Jet Supression! System heads into Southern OR/Northern California but this is good because it’s going to keep us in the freezer longer.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

So @TT-SEA, the Euro usually follows the GEM right?

See my last post.

[Doinko]

-23c for Portland and Seattle! This is the coldest run we've seen so far, I thought nothing would get colder than those earlier Euro runs

[Slushy Inch]

Hahaha

[Meatyorologist]

I'd wager we haven't seen that since Dec 1861.

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Jet Supression! System heads into Southern OR/Northern California but this is good because it’s going to keep us in the freezer longer.

I don’t want California stealing all our snow. 

[FroYoBro]

The GEM is completely absurd and the GFS still sucks.

[High Desert Mat?]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not kidding when I say the GEM and ICON are the real deal.

Lol. If it was the gfs and euro, wouldn’t you say those are the real deals? I love the optimism Jim. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just crazy that this happens in 4 days and we still don't have model agreement.  

Same thing happened last year and the gfs was wrong. About same time frame

 Maybe it was 2 years ago but I remember you said the same thing.

[Phil]

Though if we’re being honest the CMC solution looks just as shroomed-out as the GFS.

Though at least the CMC loses it in the clown range..the GFS diverges inside 72hrs.  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

BTW, is it just me or did Pivotal change their color scheme?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00z GEM is not backing down at all!

[Deweydog]

496dm thicknesses over the PDX IKEA.

[Slushy Inch]

Oh wait gets colder

[TacomaWx]

This feels like the first time that there’s actually been a legit Arctic potential in my time on the forum. It’s far from settled I get that…but even in January 2020 it didn’t not seem like that was on the table on the models so close to the event. We’re getting pretty close right now. 

[snow_wizard]

I actually saved this one to my desk top.  Wow!

 

[Meatyorologist]

GEM is having a seizure at the end with a reloading -PNA, blossoming -NAO, polar gyre orbiting over the PNW, with cross-polar flow depositing air directly from 90°N.

[Slushy Inch]

We’ve hit every bingo spot for model riding! 20+ inch snow maps, pullabxks, and negative temps.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

BTW, is it just me or did Pivotal change their color scheme?

They did and they added the ICON

[SpaceRace22]

The GFS is better for long range pattern changes and far inferior for anything within 7 days. I will fight that point to the death. The GEM, Spire, and probably the Euro are 100% the correct ones here. I too would bet a lot of money on this if websites like that existed, lol