January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[SpaceRace22]

After a horrifying couple hours of pretty much all sleet, it's finally turned to actual fluffy, somewhat dry snow here. Still lots of time for precip here, so we should be in good shape for a few more inches I'm thinking!

[Tyler Mode]

A lot of work ahead, and we're not done.  Then there's Tuesday...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Fairly uniform with temps... its sunny on Monday at least and partly sunny Tuesday.   But my point was that it's pretty rare to go down with temps and have major freezing rain issues.  It usually happens when the system is trying to warm up the arctic air at the surface.   Going from highs in the 20s to freezing rain is common... going from upper 30s back down to a serious freezing rain situation seems like it would be pretty hard to pull off.

Knock 5 off for accuracy.  I think ecm had me at 26 today and Bellingham at 27 or something 1 day ago

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Thanks Tim!!!!!!!!

ONTO FEBRUARY I GUESS!!!!!!!!!!!!!

NON EVENT INCOMING!!!!!!!!

Wednesday is still waaaaaaaay up in the air.   Huge potential to be different than what the 12Z ECMWF showed.    But either way I am not as concerned about freezing rain because of Monday and Tuesday.   Could be a quick freezing rain transition or a big dump of snow... but a serious freezing event seems unlikely up here.     

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Fairly uniform with temps... its sunny on Monday at least and partly sunny Tuesday.   But my point was that it's pretty rare to go down with temps and have major freezing rain issues.  It usually happens when the system is trying to warm up the arctic air at the surface.   Going from highs in the 20s to freezing rain is common... going from upper 30s back down to a serious freezing rain situation seems like it would be pretty hard to pull off.

How does gfs or Canadian look at same time?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Wednesday is still waaaaaaaay up in the air.   Huge potential to be different than what the 12Z ECMWF showed.    But either way I am not as concerned about freezing rain because of Monday and Tuesday.   Could be a quick freezing rain transition or a big dump of snow... but a serious freezing event seems unlikely up here.     

Freezing rain is rare so a dump of snow or plain rain is more likely 

[Perturbed Member]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Looks like it's mostly back to snow now, some moisture approaching from the south. The HRRR shows the moisture wrapping back around for a couple inches later on

Yeah that slug of moisture should be widespread snow for the metro area, our best chance to get a couple inches I think. 

[chinook]

15 - 20 minutes ago small period of snow but back to sleet.  definitely mixing occurring.  it's a battle. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Knock 5 off for accuracy.  I think ecm had me at 26 today and Bellingham at 27 or something 1 day ago

Won't be the same situation on Monday and Tuesday though.     

[Doinko]

Just now, Perturbed Member said:

Yeah that slug of moisture should be widespread snow for the metro area, our best chance to get a couple inches I think. 

100% snow now so any moisture should drop a bit of snow, which is nice to see

[Phishy Wx]

14 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

2F here so we're out of the running. When the sun was shining directly on the station it was snowing as 8F but then dropped back to about 3F after.

we've been at 0 for the past hour.  not subzero but close.  yesterday's high IMBY was 1 above.  winds seem stronger today, so WC is lower (-25 to -30)

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Freezing rain is rare so a dump of snow or plain rain is more likely 

Agreed.   And definitely with the system on Wednesday.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Down to 25F. Somehow getting colder...

[thickhog]

Pure sleet still. Probably 10 miles too far south.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Down to 25F. Somehow getting colder...

The low is going to move on shore around Reedsport, so slightly to your south, the low level cold is pouring toward the low.

[Phishy Wx]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Down to 25F. Somehow getting colder...

surface is frozen, it can do that in the bottom 500' in low ceiling overrunning events

[Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone]

Heaviest sleet all day and looks like a little snow in the mix 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The low is going to move on shore around Reedsport, so slightly to your south, the low level cold is pouring toward the low.

Brutal situation with warm air aloft and rain falling down there.   Do you have freezing rain?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone said:

Heaviest sleet all day and looks like a little snow in the mix 

Given the layer should be deeper against the east slopes of the Coast Range, I think you could switch over to snow before this wraps up. 

[Ken in Wood Village]

Went outside to start the car. It's best with this extreme cold to run your vehicle for 10 minutes to keep the battery good. Seeing big fat dollar-size flakes now. It's been a combination of sleet and snow for awhile but now it's all snow. I drove around the block and there are some nasty snow drifts. Be safe. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

Touched 20 for about 15 minutes IMBY this afternoon.  Looks like KBLI is going to stay in the teens.  They are still getting decents winds from the N/NNE, and recorded a 30mph gust just after 3pm.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Brutal situation with warm air aloft and rain falling down there.   Do you have freezing rain?

Yes. Over an inch of it.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Won't be the same situation on Monday and Tuesday though.     

Maybe, nws has a high of 34 and 35 here. The point forecast is close on temps here

[TT-SEA]

That band from Astoria to Longview is insane.   

[Parrot]

Is gfs still on board for a tue/wed surprise? Or are we confirmed torching by then?

[Ken in Wood Village]

Another video 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Maybe, nws has a high of 34 and 35 here. The point forecast is close on temps here

Your area should be the coldest spot on those days for sure with cold air damming.  

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Parrot said:

Is gfs still on board for a tue/wed surprise? Or are we confirmed torching by then?

Literally no idea yet.   Significant potential but very complex set up.   Won't be torching at that time.  

[Perturbed Member]

The icing in Astoria...

 

[T-Town]

2 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Another video 

Loving the videos. Slightly different situation here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Very strong band of wintry mix forming through Polk County into Salem. This wrap around band is going to bring some real fun. 

[Requiem]

2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

The icing in Astoria...

 

The dangerous part comes in a few days when all of this thaws-- I'm sure there's gonna be a ton of tree damage 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Loving the videos. Slightly different situation here. 

Was just going to mention the cloud deck up here is thinning out as the system tightens up even more.   Some blue sky overhead here now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Perturbed Member said:

The icing in Astoria...

 

Not good. 

[SnarkyGoblin]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Won't be the same situation on Monday and Tuesday though.     

You can't make comments like this and expect no one to react lol

You HAVE to relish in being the wet towel.  There's no other explanation.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Jesus christ on a uni cycle Astoria is getting smashed.

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

You can't make comments like this and expect no one to react lol

You HAVE to relish in being the wet towel.  There's no other explanation.

No... trying assess the freezing rain potential as that is our next event and its only 3 days away and those days are pretty important.    This discussion started with a freezing rain map from the GFS that shows what is happening in Astoria happening here in 3 days.  

That being said... 40 degrees on Monday and Tuesday in no way prevents a major snowstorm on Wednesday.   I can see that happening.    I just don't think a significant freezing event makes sense. 

[Ken in Wood Village]

If you look closely, you can see the low probably coming in around Newport (I think) and you can see the rap around moisture starting. 

[Deweydog]

Cape Horn down to 7

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Jesus christ on a uni cycle Astoria is getting smashed.

Still in the mid 20s there