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March 2024 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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The chances for rain to close out the month and to start April are not great for me but it is improving slightly.  It's very much needed as the drought continues to intensify again over western MO.

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More snow for the northern members.

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3 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Minneapolis hadn't set a monthly record high since 1999, until they did it twice in the span of six months, both last September and now this February.

Interesting, that year was the last time PHX recorded any measurable precip on Easter Sunday...it was on 4/4/1999...this SUN, we will likely record measurable precip as another strong storm dumps Snow and more Rain into the valley.

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Cloudy day with showers arriving shortly. Chilly with temps remaining in the 40's in most locales. Steadier rain by later today and through tomorrow morning. For those who celebrate Opening Day of the baseball season (should be a national holiday IMHO) the Phightin Phillies game may be in a bit of trouble....Friday looks much better but breezy and chilly,
Record High 85 degrees in Coatesville (1921) / Low 16 West Chester (2001) / Rain 2.54" Chadds Ford (1978) / Snow 2.0" Devault (1959)
image.png.064df41ed036e9bdeda71d887fd5c1d7.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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GFS trending toward a better looking storm at the end of the month with some severe weather possible.

WATCHING the next storm system very closely for severe weather in the southern Plains through the Ohio River Valley around March 31-April 2! The GFS models have been shifting toward a more bulbous trough ejection with stronger low-level shear in the warm sector. This is still the early season, so issues with limited moisture can prevent these systems from reaching their ceiling in terms of tornado production, but this next system should have more ample moisture as the Gulf of Mexico was not as ravaged this recent system
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Cloudy weather here today at the Big Apple w/ temps holding in the upper 40's. Some rain looking likely tomorrow w temps again barely getting outta the 40's. Was looking forward to some mild weather, but not looking likely. Hopefully, by the weekend, some 50s make a comeback along w some sunshine. 

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

GFS trending toward a better looking storm at the end of the month with some severe weather possible.

WATCHING the next storm system very closely for severe weather in the southern Plains through the Ohio River Valley around March 31-April 2! The GFS models have been shifting toward a more bulbous trough ejection with stronger low-level shear in the warm sector. This is still the early season, so issues with limited moisture can prevent these systems from reaching their ceiling in terms of tornado production, but this next system should have more ample moisture as the Gulf of Mexico was not as ravaged this recent system
Image

I cannot wait for severe weather to start kicking in. Looking forward to loud thunder, along w dark ominous clouds, damaging winds and hail reports. It seems like it has been forever. Fav part is when a storm is approaching and you start seeing lightning and hearing thunder and feeling those winds cranking up. 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I hate the month of March so, so much lol. The temperatures are always mentally unstable, which in turn makes me mentally unstable 😅 like don’t give me a week of 70s, then be 30 and 90 mph wind for 3 weeks straight like what is this?!? It’s also just brown, and ugly. The worst. 

 

I’d do anything to get those 70 degree temps back, the only time I’ll take snow is if it’s over 12” and then it warms up by the end of the week, otherwise it’s just gross this time of year imo. 

 

That said, I feel like this isn’t going to happen. All the long range forecasts I’ve seen are just average or below average temperatures. It just needs to be May already pleaseeee 😭

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5 hours ago, Niko said:

I cannot wait for severe weather to start kicking in. Looking forward to loud thunder, along w dark ominous clouds, damaging winds and hail reports. It seems like it has been forever. Fav part is when a storm is approaching and you start seeing lightning and hearing thunder and feeling those winds cranking up. 

Same here and it's been missing the last few years.  I hope for a turnaround this season.

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Same here and it's been missing the last few years.  I hope for a turnaround this season.

I've only seen one severe storm since moving here a year and a half ago. It's been pretty dead. At least that one severe storm was a high end derecho lol But I want some big hail. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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The official H/L yesterday was 36/31 there was a trace of snowfall.  It was another windy day with a highest wind gust of 37 MPH out of the W. There was just 26% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 50/31 the record high of 78 was set in 1905 and the record low of 8 was set in 1923. The most rainfall of 1.33” was in 2020 the most snowfall of 3.3” was in 1947 the most on the ground was 10” in 1970. Last year the H/L was 48/28.

With just 4 days to go in March even with the record cold this month with a mean of 41.2 is still +6.2 above average. There has been 3.54” of precipitation that is +1.52 the 7.2” of snowfall is right at average. For the season GR is now at 47.5” of snowfall that is a departure of -27.7” and is the 4 lowest snowfall total in the last 75 years.

 

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1 hour ago, westMJim said:

The official H/L yesterday was 36/31 there was a trace of snowfall.  It was another windy day with a highest wind gust of 37 MPH out of the W. There was just 26% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 50/31 the record high of 78 was set in 1905 and the record low of 8 was set in 1923. The most rainfall of 1.33” was in 2020 the most snowfall of 3.3” was in 1947 the most on the ground was 10” in 1970. Last year the H/L was 48/28.

With just 4 days to go in March even with the record cold this month with a mean of 41.2 is still +6.2 above average. There has been 3.54” of precipitation that is +1.52 the 7.2” of snowfall is right at average. For the season GR is now at 47.5” of snowfall that is a departure of -27.7” and is the 4 lowest snowfall total in the last 75 years.

 

Sad thing is, I don't think we are done with snowflakes yet this Spring. 

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14 hours ago, Jaycee_CHI said:

I hate the month of March so, so much lol. The temperatures are always mentally unstable, which in turn makes me mentally unstable 😅 like don’t give me a week of 70s, then be 30 and 90 mph wind for 3 weeks straight like what is this?!? It’s also just brown, and ugly. The worst. 

 

I’d do anything to get those 70 degree temps back, the only time I’ll take snow is if it’s over 12” and then it warms up by the end of the week, otherwise it’s just gross this time of year imo. 

 

That said, I feel like this isn’t going to happen. All the long range forecasts I’ve seen are just average or below average temperatures. It just needs to be May already pleaseeee 😭

100% agree with your comments...my cousin sent me a Snapchat video of the brown grass, no leaves, cloudy skies and I just don't miss that at all.  Makes you freaking depressed!

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The rain wrecking havoc on MLB opening day in the East Coast. The Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets opening games have been pushed back to tomorrow. The Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles game looks like it will go on as scheduled at 3:05 pm ET.

 

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70* Sunny. Light breeze.
Mind Blowing Beautiful!

A week of the same ahead. 
Only a 30% chance scattered rain Monday. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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10 hours ago, Tom said:

100% agree with your comments...my cousin sent me a Snapchat video of the brown grass, no leaves, cloudy skies and I just don't miss that at all.  Makes you freaking depressed!


Yep I know you hated it just as much as me too 😅 you’re lucky you got to escape!!

 

Yeah the forecast isn’t great, just more cold rain and highs in the 40s. If we don’t break the cycle in the coming weeks I might actually lose my mind lol 

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53 minutes ago, Jaycee_CHI said:


Yep I know you hated it just as much as me too 😅 you’re lucky you got to escape!!

 

Yeah the forecast isn’t great, just more cold rain and highs in the 40s. If we don’t break the cycle in the coming weeks I might actually lose my mind lol 

I’m planning on coming to Chi in early May for a bit to see family.  I’m sure it’ll get better and I’ll try to dial in on the pattern in the weeks ahead.  Sending you sunshine vibes!  

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8 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The rain wrecking havoc on MLB opening day in the East Coast. The Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets opening games have been pushed back to tomorrow. The Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles game looks like it will go on as scheduled at 3:05 pm ET.

 

Go Os! Man is this team good!

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The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 43/27 there was no rain/snowfall it was yet another windy day with the highest wind gust of 35 MPH out of the W. The sun was out 96% of the time. For today the average H/L is 50/31 the record high of 82 was set in 1910 and the record low of 6 was set in 1970. The most rainfall of 0.83” was in 1973 the most snowfall of 7.5” was in 1954 the most on the ground was 8” in 1970. Last year the H/L was 39/23 and there was 0.6” of snowfall.

There is a lot of frost this morning and the overnight low here was a cold 21 and at the current time it is 23 with clear skies.

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There's always "Next Year"...as some have been discussing on here, what can we look for when we go from a Strong Nino into a La Nina next Winter???  Survey says...(courtesy WGN)

WGN DEC-FEB Winter after Strong Nino.webp

 

What does the Good Ol' CFSv2 indicate way out in lala land....last 12 runs...

1.gif

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

There's always "Next Year"...as some have been discussing on here, what can we look for when we go from a Strong Nino into a La Nina next Winter???  Survey says...(courtesy WGN)

WGN DEC-FEB Winter after Strong Nino.webp

 

What does the Good Ol' CFSv2 indicate way out in lala land....last 12 runs...

1.gif

That would be awesome...need some throttle therapy!!!

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Storms are expected to develop tonight, but models have trended mostly south and east of Cedar Rapids.  Northern Illinois should get some good rain.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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10 of the last 12 days have featured below normal temperatures....today and tomorrow will be close to normal before more below normal weather arrives to begin the month of April.
After some sun today and shower chances this evening it should be a beautiful Easter Day tomorrow before a very rainy week sets in starting Monday till Thursday AM. We could see almost 3 inches of rain across parts of the area.
Records for today: High temp 88 Coatesville (1998) / Low 12 Phoenixville (1921) 1.93" West Chester (2001) / Snow 4.5" West Grove (1942)
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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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The official H/L yesterday was 45/33 there was 0.20” of rainfall the highest wind gust was 16 MPH out of the NW. There was no sunshine. For today the average H/L is 51/32 the record high of 78 was set in 1986 and 2010 the record low of 6 was set in 1923. The most snow fall of 3.7” was in 1951 the most on the ground was 7” in 1970. Last year set the most rainfall of 2.02” and the H/L was 58/39.

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Happy Easter to all!  It's been very windy since midday yesterday and the rain has finally made its way into the valley.  It is snowing heavily up in Flagstaff.  I'm watching the local TV news channel and the team is up on a live shot right now and its pure powder up there!  Up to a Foot of snow will fall just today with more tomorrow.  It's been 25 years since it has rained in PHX on Easter for the valley.  This storm could become a record snow event up in FLG and rain event for PHX today.  Let's see how it shakes out.

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55, moderate rain and t'storm! There's gonna be a lot of them over the next couple days. 🤪

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 26
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, 

Severe storms: 2

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

55, moderate rain and t'storm! There's gonna be a lot of them over the next couple days. 🤪

Whats a thunderstorm?  Im seeing just 2 to 4 per year in recent  years!!!! That said today is the 1 year anniversary  of one of strongest supercells of my life!  It actually  passed right over my 24 acres!  Touched ground  not  even 2 miles away. The Hedrick  Keota Iowa tornado  and hail.

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On 3/29/2024 at 9:18 AM, Tom said:

There's always "Next Year"...as some have been discussing on here, what can we look for when we go from a Strong Nino into a La Nina next Winter???  Survey says...(courtesy WGN)

WGN DEC-FEB Winter after Strong Nino.webp

 

What does the Good Ol' CFSv2 indicate way out in lala land....last 12 runs...

1.gif

That's a compelling stat when taken just on one data point alone. Pretty heavily tilts the deck one way. 

If the N. Pac flips, I'm looking at 18-20 months straight of cooler than avg central conus. We'll see if that holds up. 

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3 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

That's a compelling stat when taken just on one data point alone. Pretty heavily tilts the deck one way. 

If the N. Pac flips, I'm looking at 18-20 months straight of cooler than avg central conus. We'll see if that holds up. 

Regardless of what's going on, that seems virtually impossible especially in this day and age.

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14 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Regardless of what's going on, that seems virtually impossible especially in this day and age.

Probably not straight, but a rebalance is inevitable. Crashing solar and other variables will only add to the odds. 

Seeing how long our side of the globe has been warm vs other areas is a key here as well. 

Heat up and smash the west pac full of warm water and it will be hard to keep our continent above average temps for long stretches like the last few years. 

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1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Probably not straight, but a rebalance is inevitable. Crashing solar and other variables will only add to the odds. 

Seeing how long our side of the globe has been warm vs other areas is a key here as well. 

Heat up and smash the west pac full of warm water and it will be hard to keep our continent above average temps for long stretches like the last few years. 

The MJO is always a freaking crap shoot...JB touches a lot on the idea of underwater volcano's.  I gotta give him credit, he may be onto something...with the low solar, it usually adds to more tremors around the globe and ignites volcanos.  Interesting theory to say the least.

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On 3/27/2024 at 8:02 PM, Clinton said:

Same here and it's been missing the last few years.  I hope for a turnaround this season.

Sorry for the late response amigo...been super busy.

Me too, i missed a real severe t'stm. It feels like its been forever since I saw one.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

Sorry for the late response amigo...been super busy.

Me too, i missed a real severe t'stm. It feels like its been forever since I saw one.

We had a huge one on Tuesday. Ashland just barely missed a tornado and my county had 2 of them from the same storm..

NWS Charleston is in fact still confirming additional tornadic damage in various locations.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 26
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, 

Severe storms: 2

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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DFW forecast Monday is overcast with afternoon t-storms.  
High 81.  

Yeah.  Skunked.

You telescope guys post photos if you get them   Otherwise I’ll watch on TV.  Good skies for everyone! 


 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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