SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 17 minutes ago, Jesse said: Facts are such meanies. Have you checked your facts lately though? Some new calculations suggest diminishing returns. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Tilt of the ridge is all wrong.... Always something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Tilt of the ridge is all wrong.... Always something I miss when you were positive. There is so much to thank the universe for. 2 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I miss when you were positive. There is so much to thank the universe for. This winter is getting the best of everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Day 4 (Past 4 runs) Ridge both trending stronger and pivoting a bit more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Have you checked your facts lately though? Some new calculations suggest diminishing returns. Yeah yeah our climate is warming. That fact stands tall on its own without any need for further embellishment 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Day 5 and this run is toast, at least in the 'believable' time frame. (Past 4 runs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, Jesse said: Yeah yeah our climate is warming. That fact stands tall on its own without any need for further embellishment 3rd coldest October since 1892 in Salem in 2019. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 All I care about is that my snow for next Wednesday is still here on this run. Then I'm going to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: 3rd coldest October since 1892 in Salem in 2019. I really enjoyed that month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 5 and this run is toast, at least in the 'believable' time frame. (Past 4 runs) Troughing in the middle of the continent keeps moving farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: Troughing in the middle of the continent keeps moving farther west. Good retrogression into central AK. I'm happy for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 HR 186 is showing snow in the N. Willamette Valley with our snow commencing over here. Hopefully this run, of runs, continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 I’ll leave this here. 2016-2017 winter was one for the ages. Even in the 70’s or 80’s. It was epic. At least in the east side of the mountains it was. Some west side areas too. It can and will happen again, epic months, record lows, epic snowfall days etc. Don’t be fooled, weather and Mother Nature will still perform. It just doesn’t happen every year. When did it ever? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Shows upslope snow from hr 186 to 210, still snow showers out to 222, wraparound into the valley even with low thicknesses. Definitely something I am going to keep watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: Shows upslope snow from hr 186 to 210, still snow showers out to 222, wraparound into the valley even with low thicknesses. Definitely something I am going to keep watching. Certainly an improvement over druncle. Much more proficient at getting cold south of the 49th parallel. Let's hope that's a trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: Certainly an improvement over druncle. Much more proficient at getting cold south of the 49th parallel. Let's hope that's a trend Hopefully I wake up to them saying the same thing. I have a bet with my brother that we get at least one 12" storm this year. Been pathetic over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 32 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 5 and this run is toast, at least in the 'believable' time frame. (Past 4 runs) Day 5 isn't even in the believable range, let alone day 4, not anymore. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Fascinating run. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Not going to complain about another could run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 This run is an improvement and noticeably cooler by day 9. Positive trend and colder air is creeping westward. Now let's get this inside 5 days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 CMC is an uglier version of the GFS, but is also cold, interested to see the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 A real SE ridge would certainly help 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, Cloud said: This run is an improvement and noticeably cooler by day 9. Positive trend and colder air is creeping westward. Now let's get this inside 5 days. It will be interesting to see if the Wed/Thur storm I am following holds to form. Appears to suppress the jet and maybe open the door??? I am not the best at reading the models but 522 thicknesses and -10 850s do speak to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Long range model forecasting has unfortunately gotten worse since 2008, IMO. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said: Long range model forecasting has unfortunately gotten worse since 2008, IMO. This is unequivocally false. The 10-14 day period was basically a complete crap shoot then. They're much more consistent about the big picture 500mb anomolies now. 1 1 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Seasonably cool Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Somehow Snoqualmie Pass is still reporting rain right now despite snow being reported down to 500 feet in spots around the Sound. Very cold 38 degree rain here. I'll be skiing up there tomorrow so hoping they can get at least a couple inches tonight. 1 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I miss when you were positive. There is so much to thank the universe for. Well the models aren't the best, and I'm feeling a bit beat down with my knee and Birthday on Superbowl Sunday looking ahead this year and praying I do not have to have another surgery. I'm thankful everyday and I say it several times. I think it helps keep us grounded and stay in perspective. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 I think Andrew may have taken up drugs recently 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 7 minutes ago, Timmy said: I think Andrew may have taken up drugs recently How dare you! 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 So glad it’s raining again, things were getting mighty dry out there... up to .59” on the day, currently 37 degrees. 3 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 19 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Somehow Snoqualmie Pass is still reporting rain right now despite snow being reported down to 500 feet in spots around the Sound. Very cold 38 degree rain here. I'll be skiing up there tomorrow so hoping they can get at least a couple inches tonight. It's probably the exhaust from Tim's weather manipulation device heating the local atmosphere near the pass. I know in the past he had it pointed at Jim's house but may have made some adjustments. 1 1 1 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 39 degrees now. First time into the 30s in a week! Up to 0.44” on the day as well. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 It's pretty amazing to have the big three models all showing a very rare progression to cold weather like we are currently seeing. The 12z ECMWF, 18z GFS, 0z GFS, and 0z GEM are all similar and all end up in a weird / cold configuration before day 10. Can't wait to see how it plays out. It's interesting to see the GEM colder with the situation this weekend / early next week as well. That still has potential to end up colder than currently thought. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 39 currently, .72" so far today, low of 38.8. Raining off and on, more on than not. Thinking the Euro will not dispel the dreary mood hanging upon the forum but hoping it does anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, hawkstwelve said: Hoping for improvements on the Euro. The 18z EPS was a nice step in the right direction through D6. I forgot to look at that! Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, Acer said: 39 currently, .72" so far today, low of 38.8. Raining off and on, more on than not. Thinking the Euro will not dispel the dreary mood hanging upon the forum but hoping it does anyway. Why would it be dreary? I think tonight's runs have been pretty interesting. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 00z ECMWF Day 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Wow! I guess the 18z EPS was colder. If the trend continues the day 6 time frame could be downright cold. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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