Gradient Keeper Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 18z NAM further north with the low and 2mb stronger. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 We are probable just looking at it catch up the the Euro. 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Devastating trend for all if this continues. Not for me! 1 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtep Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Light snow coming down! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 18z NAM looks good for Seattle. Much less so for Portland. These are the last 4 runs: 1 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Honestly just catch up to the EURO, but I don’t like the realization that we’ll likely be getting an ice storm in PDX.. 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 For PDX we better hope 00z runs do not follow suit, or this is over before it began, or a big ice storm perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Keep in mind this is the 18z nam. We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 I think the worst part is that it seems unlikely with the low level flow that PDX will just get cold rain— sleet or ice looks likely which sucks "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Oh boy... That doesn't look good for NW OR/extreme SW WA. ZR extends pretty far up in to SW WA. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 I think its overcorrecting in its catchup to the Euro. I bet it wobbles back a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Looks like the jet starts to push the low back south https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: For PDX we better hope 00z runs do not follow suit, or this is over before it began, or a big ice storm perhaps. Don't see any way the trend reverses at this point. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Midday weather report: Temp 31˚F, DP 16˚F. 1 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Hour 48 the low is 4mb lower. Don’t want to see that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Ice storm time ig "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 NAM is treading on being a complete non event south of Chehalis. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Going to be interesting to see if the GFS caves. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antipex Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, BLI snowman said: NAM is treading on being a complete non event south of Chehalis. What makes you think there won't be freezing rain down here in the PDX metro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North_County Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 36 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: We do get some strait enhancement here. I live pretty close to Duncan. (Duncan is on the east side of the island) But not as much as places further north where they have the benefits of upsloping on the Island mountain ranges. I'm sorry. I meant East. Strait-effect snow on the west side of the island would be....something Thanks for the response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, antipex said: What makes you think there won't be freezing rain down here in the PDX metro? South wind 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: Going to be interesting to see if the GFS caves. Yes. At the very least it will catch up to the EURO with slowing down the cold air progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, Requiem said: Ice storm time ig Look on the bright side: at least it is a form of genuine winter precipitation, so you’re not getting totally skunked. And it wouldn’t completely surprise me if models reverted to a snowier solution for your area. It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Here's a NAM and Euro comparison for 10 pm Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 It's the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Going to be interesting to see if the GFS caves. I still say no way the sound get's another huge event. Either everything gets pushed south somehow or it becomes a non event south of Everett or so. 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antipex Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Timmy said: South wind Don't see any south wind here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said: Here's a NAM and Euro comparison for 10 pm Thursday. The NAM is snowier for everybody! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, antipex said: What makes you think there won't be freezing rain down here in the PDX metro? Southerly air and a fairly weak precip shield once the easterlies kick in, assuming they even do at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, BLI snowman said: Southerly air and a fairly weak precip shield once the easterlies kick in, assuming they even do at this point. It seems we're about on the same page with this for PDX/Vancouver up to about Kelso-Centralia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 any stronger of a low will increase the gorge effect, but assuming temps in the gorge and columbia basin can help. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, BLI snowman said: Southerly air and a fairly weak precip shield once the easterlies kick in, assuming they even do at this point. Somebody has a case of the January 2020’s... 1 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: Kuchera comparison between 12z and 18z NAM is even more insane. I try not to dig on the NAM too much because it needs a friend in this world, but can we really take it seriously when it makes such a huge leap in one run? YES! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, antipex said: Don't see any south wind here... That's operating under the assumption it won't continue to hedge 50 miles north of that position, which is the most likely scenario right now. Like I said, it's treading on the precipice of a complete non event. At face value the 18z NAM would be a bit icy and slightly snowy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, Deweydog said: Somebody has a case of the January 2020’s... Our location Been a fairly rough series of latitude based screwjobs the past few years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Somebody has a case of the January 2020’s... So much promise for a week. Then a big juicy nothing burger and fries the next two months. 18.5" fell from 01/09-16. Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, BLI snowman said: Our location Been a fairly rough series of latitude based screwjobs the past few years. 2013-2018 was a helluva run though. 1 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 I'm sure the Puget Sound will be fine. Wish I could go up there but life ain't perfect "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: Snow subsides by Friday morning for Puget Sound at which point, depending on which ratio you use, 5-10+ inches has fallen from Everett southward and the next storm is about to move in. @TT-SEA Becomes the big winner. It always works out for him lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 The chance of snow in Portland on Saturday was contingent on the Thursday/Friday storm tracking favorably and bringing cold air in its wake. NAM probably takes that off the table. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Posted by Bryant,
11 reactions
Go to this post