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PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil


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4 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Doozy of a storm for Vancouver-- the gradient is real this year... still holding out some hope for February.

Some years it just is. Watched it many times from afar when I lived in Seattle and Portland. Would be lying if I said it wasn’t a factor that motivated me to move north.

At least you have some elevation. Some years Portland’s West Hills can really score.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Eagerly awaiting the arrival of that Fraser Valley outflow, still 35F here with light SW winds. It seems this might be one of those tight snow gradient scenarios, the Arctic air is arriving at just the right time to meet a Pacific storm. Places that end up near the boundary will see huge amounts of snow.  Hope is sitting at 16F now with blasting outflow, this Fraser Valley airmass is plenty cold.

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41F with some light rain.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Just now, DJ Droppin said:

East wind/cold pool develops fairly early this run. I'll take it.

Feels like forever since we've had a brisk northerly or easterly wind. It's almost all been from the south. One would think the other shoe has to drop at some point but it just doesn't seem to ever happen.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Feels like forever since we've had a brisk northerly or easterly wind. It's almost all been from the south. One would think the other shoe has to drop at some point but it just doesn't seem to ever happen.

Do you get any offshore flow down there through what would be it? Willamette Pass? or some other gaps? I honestly don't know.

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8 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Eagerly awaiting the arrival of that Fraser Valley outflow, still 35F here with light SW winds. It seems this might be one of those tight snow gradient scenarios, the Arctic air is arriving at just the right time to meet a Pacific storm. Places that end up near the boundary will see huge amounts of snow.  Hope is sitting at 16F now with blasting outflow, this Fraser Valley airmass is plenty cold.

What are you expecting tomorrow? I was initially very bullish on this setup but everything except the gfs has pulled back significantly? 

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2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Do you get any offshore flow down there through what would be it? Willamette Pass? or some other gaps? I honestly don't know.

Sometimes from the north and into the McKenzie Valley if it's a gap wind event or sometimes over the Belknap gap and down the McKenzie in CCG mountain wave events.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Sometimes from the north and into the McKenzie Valley if it's a gap wind event or sometimes over the Belknap gap and down the McKenzie in CCG mountain wave events.

Would the Belknap gap be the one south of Three Sisters and west of Mt Bachelor and Elk Lake? Think the crest is about 5200’ there.

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Would be the best looking inversion we've seen in years. Pretty strong Basin high and a deep cold pool developing (900mb or so).

Crossing my fingers, toes, and the ever popular, yet rarely executed toes over fingers/fingers over toes. Whatever. You pick!

00z ECMWF in 58 minutes

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2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Would the Belknap gap be the one south of Three Sisters and west of Mt Bachelor and Elk Lake? Think the crest is about 5200’ there.

Just to the north of the Sisters and just south of Santiam Pass.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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3 minutes ago, Esquimalt said:

What are you expecting tomorrow? I was initially very bullish on this setup but everything except the gfs has pulled back significantly? 

Overrunning events are usually a safe bet if they're coming from the SW and there's an actual Arctic airmass in place. The timing on this one will be tight though, it's really threading the needle in getting the Arctic air in place right before the system arrives. A slight deviation and there could be next to nothing in Victoria and over a foot just 20 miles north. All the ingredients for something major are there, should have a better idea going by tomorrow morning's temperatures.

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9 minutes ago, dhoffine said:

Ok, total noobie question..

What chance could tomorrow night bust the “right” way and leave everyone under 6 inches of snow and no sign of stopping?

 

None.  This will be a classic overrunning warm front.  The good news is the 0z GFS is more aggressive with the cold air early in the game.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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21 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

00z GFS kinda gives me mid December 2005 vibes....

That would be great. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Been switching back and forth between snow and rain in south/east Bellingham. Got lucky about an hour and a half ago, boss asked me to drive up to Ferndale to pick up some dough and it was DUMPING. Had about an inch or so covering everything. 

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2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

How you feeling, Jim ?

Pretty decent.  Getting less tired and stronger now.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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