PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[Meatyorologist]

19 minutes ago, RayRay said:

Can anybody explain the massive temperature difference and why the temperature shot up from 32.7 F to 37 F in a matter of 2 hours?

Thanks

Very confused why this is happening...

 

That station is likely on the edge of the Hood Canal cold pool. As its perimeter oscillated inwards, warmer southerlies were allowed to overtake the observation site, and the thermometer warmed as a result. Temps could crash there again as the boundary moves randomly over time

[Cloud]

The switch is happening. Feels like almost impossible at this point for it not to happen for Seattle. 

[FroYoBro]

Just now, Requiem said:

 

It’s looking pretty likely at this point. Seems like the east side still hasn’t mixed out. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pendleton up to 39, Hermiston down to 6!

[gusky]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

The switch is happening. Feels like almost impossible at this point for it not to happen for Seattle. 

I personally find the precip depic to be very unreliable... it'll often have very sudden transitions to showing snow. I don't really get why.

[joelgombiner]

It looks like it's going to set up a heavy band over Seattle in the next 20 minutes or so. That might do it... 

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

The switch is happening. Feels like almost impossible at this point for it not to happen for Seattle. 

 

[seattleweatherguy]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS shows King County should get socked good after 10pm.  About 10PM to 2AM or so.

Then it dries out?

[KingstonWX]

Temp just jumped from 32 to 36. Precip rates definitely affecting temps. This is kinda nuts. 

[jakerepp]

So close right now...

[dhoffine]

Down to 39 in Enumclaw, 8 degree drop in a few hours, winds also dying down.

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, gusky said:

I personally find the precip depic to be very unreliable... it'll often have very sudden transitions to showing snow. I don't really get why.

Still more reliable than Uncle Cliffy who guarantees no lowlands snow tonight. My sister is reporting heavy snow in Mill Creek. Renton is starting to switch. 

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Pendleton up to 39, Hermiston down to 6!

Wow, fun stuff.

[gusky]

Wow, still just pouring out there. Still around a half inch of rain an hour here.

[RentonHill]

Just now, Cloud said:

Still more reliable than Uncle Cliffy who guarantees no lowlands snow tonight. My sister is reporting heavy snow in Mill Creek. Renton is starting to switch. 

It is???

[joelgombiner]

1 minute ago, KingstonWX said:

Temp just jumped from 32 to 36. Precip rates definitely affecting temps. This is kinda nuts. 

My mental image is of the atmosphere getting bent down like a rubber band and popping back up when the precip force lets up. No idea if that's scientifically accurate. 

[snow_wizard]

Wow!  33.4 now.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Still more reliable than Uncle Cliffy who guarantees no lowlands snow tonight. My sister is reporting heavy snow in Mill Creek. Renton is starting to switch. 

I let this demon stay up way too late so we could keep checking the street light. Still no snow here. 

[KingstonWX]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Still more reliable than Uncle Cliffy who guarantees no lowlands snow tonight. My sister is reporting heavy snow in Mill Creek. Renton is starting to switch. 

As if Cliff won't find a way to claim he saw this coming. 

[MossMan]

Snow and 33.6 degrees. 
.88” of precip so far on the day. 

[wxmet]

3 minutes ago, gusky said:

I personally find the precip depic to be very unreliable... it'll often have very sudden transitions to showing snow. I don't really get why.

Right. When looking at precipitation depiction radar imagery you should also check the surface observations. That being said, it looks like some of the higher elevation around 500' feet are seeing the transition under heavy rates.

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

It is???

Patience!!  

[Thurston Howell III]

8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

That station is likely on the edge of the Hood Canal cold pool. As its perimeter oscillated inwards, warmer southerlies were allowed to overtake the observation site, and the thermometer warmed as a result. Temps could crash there again as the boundary moves randomly over time

Just the heavy precipitation can also effect temp by 3 or 4 degrees also.

[gusky]

Just now, wxmet said:

Right. When looking at precipitation depiction radar imagery you should also check the surface observations. That being said, it looks like some of the higher elevation around 500' feet are seeing the transition under heavy rates.

I was actually just looking at sfc observations. There is confirmed snow as far south as Everett, and pretty small temp difference between there and here. It seems to be right on the edge of mixing with snow.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Snow on rail is new

[TeacherLori]

4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

I let this demon stay up way too late so we could keep checking the street light. Still no snow here. 

Ok, this is the cutest thing I've seen today.

[Jmankitsap]

1 minute ago, gusky said:

I was actually just looking at sfc observations. There is confirmed snow as far south as Everett, and pretty small temp difference between there and here. It seems to be right on the edge of mixing with snow.

At 148th and 99 in Lynnwood it was heavy wet snow but just down the street at the 525 merge it was more rain and kept going back and forth up to airport road and 99...

[Meatyorologist]

10 minutes ago, gusky said:

I personally find the precip depic to be very unreliable... it'll often have very sudden transitions to showing snow. I don't really get why.

It's guided by HRRR+RAP model guidance, as well as correlation coefficient (variation in droplet size).

Point being, it's algorithmically driven and changes more respectively to model guidance. Not very reliable, especially if model guidance is incorrect. Current observation and satellite/radar trends are much more valuable.

[gusky]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

It's guided by HRRR+RAP model guidance, as well as correlation coefficient (variation in droplet size).

Point being, it's algorithmically driven and changes more respectively to model guidance. Not very reliable, especially if model guidance is incorrect. Current observation and satellite/radar trends are much more valuable.

Wow, that's really interesting. I use it fairly frequently but this information might change that.

[The Ms. Anthrop]

14 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

LOL sorry not sorry. The roads in unincorporated KC are terrible, and honestly, there are some uhh, staffing issues due to a certain illness already plaguing the district for tomorrow. Given what I can see on my end, it’s going to be a hot mess regardless of snow or no snow. Let your cute son spend half the night looking out that window and call him in sick. I have the power to get it excused no matter what school you are at 

[gusky]

NWS doesn't think snow will go any further south.

[tjb723]

Pretty wild here in Sultan at the moment. Snowing sideways and heavy, with occasional pellets tinging off the windows. Roads already seeing accumulation.

[snow_wizard]

14 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Still more reliable than Uncle Cliffy who guarantees no lowlands snow tonight. My sister is reporting heavy snow in Mill Creek. Renton is starting to switch. 

He never learns.

[Hawksfan2008]

Here. We. Go. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, gusky said:

NWS doesn't think snow will go any further south.

It doesn't really say that.  It just says that for Snohomish County.  The heaviest stuff has yet to hit King County.

[seattleweatherguy]

1 minute ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Here. We. Go. 

Wow how much of this is for tonight?

[gusky]

1 minute ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Here. We. Go. 

Be wary of this run, it is already highly inaccurate, no snow has even fallen from the sky in Seattle.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Here. We. Go. 

Wow!

[Meatyorologist]

Here's my take on the situation tonight through this crude drawing...

Through sfc obs it's plainly clear that the GFS was far too cold. From the get go it seemed strangely overzealous with those easterlies, hence my suspicions earlier.

What I did not expect, however, was the extremely efficient anafrontal cooling associated with heavy precip rates. Quite honestly this is an overperformance, particularly for Snohomish county, though even down here in N Sea I noticed it fogging up outside while making some food in the kitchen earlier.

At this point in time it is appearing increasingly likely given the somewhat stationary nature of this banding that most areas SeaTac north through Mt Vernon will be at least teasing with a substantial threat for snow.

If you were holding out hope for that GFS solution, then, well... I don't know what to tell you. That solution was pretty obviously bunk right from the get go.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Here. We. Go. 

There are going to be a lot of power outages with that much heavy wet snow! Definite increase in my area even! 

[snow_wizard]

Pretty obvious the cold here is all low level so far.  No mix even at 33 degrees.  Hopefully those high precip rates later will do the trick.