October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Kolk1604]

981 Low paying Rob a visit on the 12z Canadian 

[Chewbacca Defense]

36 minutes ago, MossMan said:

A backhoe and drain rock is in your future. I had similar issues here at my place when we first bought the place over 4yrs ago. 

Did you run French drains?  That was originally my plan, but my buddy who helped me with the deck said with the soil I have it wouldn't do a lot of good.  I had a towable one man auger to do the footings for the deck, and there were spots where it could only go down about 4-5" and that was with me putting my full 270# on it.

 

Its too tight of a space to get a backhoe in my back yard, I was going to get a dingo with the trenching attachment.

 

Up to 1.29" for the day here.

[Jbolin]

17 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GFS in 1 hour 17 minutes

What ya guys and gals thinking? As cold as 18z? a total dud? or chilly at times with some rug pull?

Ask me in January 

[Kolk1604]

[Randyc321]

Went over the Oyster Saloon near the Hamma Hamma river,  on the West shore of the Hood Canal today.  Good grub, kinda rustic for the price, but a great day out.  Took the chance to stop by Rocky Brook Falls by the Dosewallips on the way to lunch.  Nobody else was there and it was just sprinkling.  Nice.

Oh, and caught this shot of this good sized rock stopped by the two fir trees at the bottom of a steep slope and right on the trail.  The rock was about five feet long.

[Phishy Wx]

19 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GFS in 1 hour 17 minutes

What ya guys and gals thinking? As cold as 18z? a total dud? or chilly at times with some rug pull?

wiper effect. torchy and drier

[The Blob]

Look at these weenies down south.

[Gradient Keeper]

I can't wait until the block development is within range of the NAM!

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I can't wait until the block development is within range of the NAM!

And we're a week away from earlier runs! Good Times ahead 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Rain seems to be tapering off now. 2.47" for the day, 6.58" for the month.

[snow_wizard]

3 hours ago, NWbyNW said:

Legit... I am in that little circle with NO precipitation all day.  What gives?  Literally EVERYWHERE ELSE.  Lol! This is almost too funny.

 

 

 

 

 

That is one incredible shadow.

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Rain seems to be tapering off now. 2.47" for the day, 6.58" for the month.

I'm around 2.5" for the month.  We've had a lot of shadowing here.

[Jbolin]

33 minutes ago, The Blob said:

Look at these weenies down south.

Wimps

[snow_wizard]

58 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GFS in 1 hour 17 minutes

What ya guys and gals thinking? As cold as 18z? a total dud? or chilly at times with some rug pull?

I'm going with a moderate cold snap.  Highs in the low 40s / lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s type thing.  A major cold shot is certainly possible though.

[snow_wizard]

I have been thinking that a near normal monthly average may not be all that crazy of a call for November on the whole.  We could have a week of cold weather and then go into a firehose situation.  I don't have a good feel for that yet.  Nina climo does favor a fairly mild November in most cases.

[LowerGarfield]

10 hours ago, Eujunga said:

You need to understand that model-riding, like gambling, isn't really about results. It's about the thrill of anticipation. It's about chasing the high. Everyone knows that any given model run showing snow is unlikely to pan out, just as any spin of the roulette wheel is unlikely to come up on your number. The excitement itself is the goal. The next model run to get excited about is never more than 6 hours away, and hey, if the snow and cold it depicts happen to come true, that's just icing on the cake!

Absolutely right! I'm from CA originally so I grew up model riding for rain which is really important too. Model riding for Snow is a bit different but same idea.

[The Blob]

 

[Randyc321]

41 minutes ago, The Blob said:

Look at these weenies down south.

I mean in all fairness, 67 in Palm Springs?  That's a bit chilly for speedos.  

[TacomaWx]

0.07” so far this evening…rain hasn’t started up bigtime just yet but we’re definitely not being shadowed anymore. 

[Randyc321]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I have been thinking that a near normal monthly average may not be all that crazy of a call for November on the whole.  We could have a week of cold weather and then go into a firehose situation.  I don't have a good feel for that yet.  Nina climo does favor a fairly mild November in most cases.

November can have a way of surprising you regardless of what the LR says.  I always look forward to November, it's usually our first dynamic month of the year.

[LowerGarfield]

5 hours ago, Eujunga said:

Seems like a lot of arguments on here start when people extrapolate that the weather in their backyard applies to the region as a whole, or when they cherry-pick isolated data points to support a narrative (I'm guilty of this at times).

That's when I like to look at the ACIS maps to get a more accurate overall picture of the region. In this case, they verify that the nights this October have overall been on the warm side, and that it has in fact been drier than normal in most of Oregon and Washington (thus supporting my heat/drought narrative).

I think Mat and myself were the clear winners for the month in precip. If you see the green line in the Palouse through Garfield and Whitman counties I am right where the darker shade of green meets the light green. This is also interesting because I'm right on the border of snow maps because to the East and South (and North usually but not always) there is usually more and to the west it drops off dramatically towards the Basin. 

It looks like Tri Cities was also a winner. They are usually shadowed for everything.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

November can have a way of surprising you regardless of what the LR says.  I always look forward to November, it's usually our first dynamic month of the year.

2010 was dynamic on steroids.

[snow_wizard]

The 18z CFS was one of those rare runs where every month Nov - Feb is cold.

That reminds me....1978 is showing up as an analog now and that was a rare case of Nov - Jan all being abnormally cold.  1984 has also been there and it was persistently cold.

[Gradient Keeper]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

2010 was dynamic on steroids.

A true northern blast. Rare.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Phishy Wx]

15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The 18z CFS was one of those rare runs where every month Nov - Feb is cold.

That reminds me....1978 is showing up as an analog now and that was a rare case of Nov - Jan all being abnormally cold.  1984 has also been there and it was persistently cold.

WOW, would.

 

1978-12-28	15	-2	6.5	-21.5	58	0	T	T	11
1978-12-29	2	-16	-7.0	-35.0	72	0	0.00	0.0	11
1978-12-30	-4	-21	-12.5	-40.6	77	0	0.00	0.0	11
1978-12-31	-5	-22	-13.5	-41.

 

1979-01-01	2	-22	-10.0	-38.2	75	0	0.00	0.0	11
1979-01-02	11	2	6.5	-21.7	58	0	0.00	0.0	11
1979-01-03	13	1	7.0	-21.3	58	0	T	T	11
1979-01-04	17	-2	7.5	-20.9	57	0	0.00	0.0	11
1979-01-05	9	-11	-1.0	-29.5	66	0	0.00	0.0	11
1979-01-06	8	-11	-1.5	-30.1	66	0	0.00	0.0	11
1979-01-07	8	-13	-2.5	-31.2	67	0	0.00	0.0	11
1979-01-08	12	-7	2.5	-26.3

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 (Past 4 runs) Sorry for the delay. Damn veggies always give me the shits! Damn veggies!

[Doinko]

21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The 18z CFS was one of those rare runs where every month Nov - Feb is cold.

That reminds me....1978 is showing up as an analog now and that was a rare case of Nov - Jan all being abnormally cold.  1984 has also been there and it was persistently cold.

At PDX the warmest departure that month was -2.7! 9 subfreezing highs too. And on the 10th, PDX was 32/28 with 1.35" of precip and no snow.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 (Past 4 runs)

[Doinko]

00z looks a little faster with the second trough

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

At PDX the warmest departure that month was -2.7! 9 subfreezing highs too. And on the 10th, PDX was 32/28 with 1.35" of precip and no snow.

ice storm?

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Doinko said:

00z looks a little faster with the second trough

Digging off southern Alaska a few notches sooner.

[NWbyNW]

 

That rain shadow over the Central Sound finally broke down for much of the area.  I've still personally had no rain though.... 

[Sonny Summers]

4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 3 (Past 4 runs) Sorry for the delay. D**n veggies always give me the shits! D**n veggies!

I hope this model run doesn't do the same thing to you.

[Doinko]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

ice storm?

Yeah it looks like a big one too. SEA was 45/36 on the same day

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Sonny Summers said:

I hope this model run doesn't do the same thing to you.

I'm gonna need a new couch!

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 48 minutes

[Jbolin]

1 minute ago, NWbyNW said:

 

That rain shadow over the Central Sound finally broke down for much of the area.  I've still personally had no rain though.... 

Gotta love a bit of suppression to go from westerly to southwesterly.

Rain for everyone.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 (Past 4 runs) I do believe I like these trends so far.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5.5