Popular Post smerfylicious Posted November 27, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 A few more seconds of hail and a pic as well. Probably the most impressive bout of hail I've gone through in years. 20221127_135505.mp4 11 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 28 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said: Have you seen the last 2 runs? The temps are STILL ridiculous. It all comes down to the ECMWF 925s. Everything else looks plausible for borderline heavy wet stuff, especially around the King Snohomish county line. Only the ECMWF 925s make that hard to believe for the timeframe of interest. The 850 can support if precip is heavy enough and 925s below freezing. A little away from the water makes a difference too. Once in the 90s I got stuck for 3.5 hours at the Lynwood I-5 405 interchange from heavy wet stuff. It was 41° when the snow started and dumped 4 inches in 90 minutes or so. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepFriedEgg Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 ICON is downright depressing... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 21 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: Uncle sobered up and removed the crazy arctic outbreak around days 8-10. It seems like we are getting close to a model consensus of no arctic outbreak from this pattern. But mid to upper 30s forever! Thus a chance for something fun to enter the forecast with 2 or 3 days notice next couple weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, Nov1985 said: But mid to upper 30s forever! Thus a chance for something fun to enter the forecast with 2 or 3 days notice next couple weeks. The 8 to 12 day period is totally up in the air right now. At this point it appears to be anywhere from cold to very cold. For that matter we really don't even know how Wednesday will play out. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Still looking good for snow IMBY Tuesday night into Wednesday. Euro says sloppy wet snow changing to rain, GooFuS says hard freeze, all snow, and lots of it. Would like for GooFuS to be right but my money is for a more Euro-like solution. Would not be surprised if the Euro is underdoing the snow here and we get more than the 4" or so it calls for, say up to 6". More in the hills and lots more in the mountains. It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Just now, snow_wizard said: The 8 to 12 day period totally up in the air right now. At this point it appears to be anywhere from cold to very cold. For that matter we really don't even know how Wednesday will play out. Realistically, that’s how it always is with clown range. 2 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 7 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said: ICON is downright depressing... Probably won't happen that way. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Seems a little aggressive but we shall see… 3 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Still looking good for snow IMBY Tuesday night into Wednesday. Euro says sloppy wet snow changing to rain, GooFuS says hard freeze, all snow, and lots of it. Would like for GooFuS to be right but my money is for a more Euro-like solution. Would not be surprised if the Euro is underdoing the snow here and we get more than the 4" or so it calls for, say up to 6". More in the hills and lots more in the mountains. The ECMWF probably will come around a little bit at least. The GFS and ECMWF often move toward each other when they disagree like this. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The ECMWF probably will come around a little bit at least. The GFS and ECMWF often move toward each other when they disagree like this. I'm just gonna save time and watch the ECMWF 925 MB temps in each run between now and 18Z Tue. Make or break content there. Well, and I guess precip intensity too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The ECMWF probably will come around a little bit at least. The GFS and ECMWF often move toward each other when they disagree like this. That’s what I’m thinking, and why I’m padding the Euro’s snow estimates in the GFS’s direction. It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 (edited) Looks like November will come in just a touch warmer than 2000 at SLE. Easily the coldest since then though, actually colder than any of the past 5 Januaries there and colder than 7 of the last 8 Januaries. That’s pretty wild. All time they will likely come in at 12th coldest since 1894. If they over perform the next couple days they could end up at #10. Edited November 27, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew 3 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusky Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Just got a chance to look at models again. EPS and ECMWF have been gradually improving over the past day, 12z continues that trend! 7 My Weather Station: https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5. My Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusky Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 And look at that improvement on WRF. WOW! This still seems like a very heavy exaggeration of snow totals though. 2 My Weather Station: https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5. My Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 La Nina! 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randyc321 Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 minute ago, gusky said: And look at that improvement on WRF. WOW! This still seems like a very heavy exaggeration of snow totals though. Go look at the 850s during that frame. Pretty warm. The snow loop looks great, the 850 temp loop not so much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 31 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said: ICON is downright depressing... Not if you live in Portland and like rain. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Cats Meow Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 I raked extra leaves and cut the grass really short. Too bad we probably won't get anything with this first round of action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusky Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, Randyc321 said: Go look at the 850s during that frame. Pretty warm. The snow loop looks great, the 850 temp loop not so much. Yeah that's why I said it's very exaggerated... ~-6 is technically cold enough for snow but not for a widespread 4-6 inches of snow 1 My Weather Station: https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5. My Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 12z EPS after Day 5 has a lot of backdoor low level cold Gorge/Columbia Basin. If there is any gusty or strong east wind with the Gorge/Columbia Basin in the freezer it could be even colder at PDX. I hope so. This works for me! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, gusky said: Yeah that's why I said it's very exaggerated... ~-6 is technically cold enough for snow but not for a widespread 4-6 inches of snow Looks like I'll be ~-7. Mayhaps I can be lucky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusky Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 This is the type of output you'd expect from 300hr GFS... not 70hr GFS 2 1 2 3 1 3 My Weather Station: https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5. My Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Just now, gusky said: This is the type of output you'd expect from 300hr GFS... not 70hr GFS Only means one thing. Its gonna happen. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 minute ago, gusky said: This is the type of output you'd expect from 300hr GFS... not 70hr GFS Not enough for my location. Dump it. 1 2 3 2 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Not gonna lie that was a pretty sober uncle. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 13 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: 12z EPS after Day 5 has a lot of backdoor low level cold Gorge/Columbia Basin. If there is any gusty or strong east wind with the Gorge/Columbia Basin in the freezer it could be even colder at PDX. I hope so. This works for me! Mark Nelsen says no east wind coming up over the next week. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 10 minutes ago, MossMan said: Not enough for my location. Dump it. Looks the same as at my place. 8" or more. It's 80% phantom though. edit: Whoops, after a close look I guess you are in the blue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepFriedEgg Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Wow big missed opportunity for lowlands south of Everett if cold pool doesn't materialize. Oh well. Maybe something later in the month closer to X-mas... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepFriedEgg Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Only chance for PDX is anafront (long shot) or cold pool (which Mark Nelsen says will not occur in the next week) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2022 Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 36 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: La Nina! where dis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 minute ago, DeepFriedEgg said: Only chance for PDX is anafront (long shot) or cold pool (which Mark Nelsen says will not occur in the next week) Looks like Mark has given up on any snow between PDX and Eugene. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Mark says he’s hoping for a slushy inch at 1000’. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 26 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2022 said: where dis? Eastern WA Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 25 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said: Looks like Mark has given up on any snow between PDX and Eugene. Mark doesn’t miss. His word means more to me than any meteorologist (local or otherwise), the NWS, or anybody else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 34 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said: Wow big missed opportunity for lowlands south of Everett if cold pool doesn't materialize. Oh well. Maybe something later in the month closer to X-mas... I’ll try harder next time coach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 38 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2022 said: where dis? Spokane vicinity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 What ever happened to phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Watching IR loops and 18z NWS/NCEP Pacific Surface Analysis to see how the pattern is progressing with the ridge/high pressure cells. Hoping that frontal band can hold the ridge at ~160 W. Doubtful. We need a system to plow north into the Bering Sea. Also doubtful. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Waiting for snow. Down to 36. 2 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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