PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Slushy Inch]

If there were no cold GEFS members I would be a lot more worried. Important to remember GFS caved big for Sunday already.

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Block reassembles just before Christmas.  So much uncertainty in that time frame also.

Would have hope for that if EPS showed it.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

If there were no cold GEFS members I would be a lot more worried. Important to remember GFS caved big for Sunday already.

I’m fairly confident the GFS will cave in the 12z run. We’re getting inside that key 3 day window now where models should start aligning with each other.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Going to catch some sleep, I’ll be back for the 6z EURO.

[Requiem]

GEFS seems significantly worse but still okay for low level cold. But seriously, can this model screw off already with the mind games

[TigerWoodsLibido]

In a way I'm somewhat relieved to be on the outside looking in on this one with the emotional roller coaster y'all have gotta be experiencing up north.

[Requiem]

11 minutes ago, Requiem said:

GEFS seems significantly worse but still okay for low level cold. But seriously, can this model screw off already with the mind games

Vile how much worse it is. Either this model is having problems so bad that I'm wondering how it's even acceptable to be reliant on, or it's right and every other model is not. 

edit: just gonna go to bed because the go eff yourSelf model is irritating me. Hope for good trends!

[Tyler Mode]

Coldest morning of the month so far, 22.5.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

6z EURO still looks good out to day 3. 

0z:

6z:

[Everleigh]

Currently 29.5*F after a low of 26.8* around midnight-thirty. Definitely dealing with a freezing fog situation. Almost ate sh*t on the deck. lol  

[The Blob]

24 IMBY, car said 29 in Troutdale when I left at 4:30

[umadbro]

24 and fog.  

[Brennan]

North Sound under a Winter Weather Advisory from 4pm today to 4pm tomorrow with the expectation of 1-3" of accumulation of "mixed precipitation". . . I swear, forecasting was better when I started following the weather back in the early 2000s. Synoptic forecasting hasn't advanced one bit in the last 20 years. I literally have no idea what's going to happen. . . This feature has me a bit amped. Tremendous cold to the N and that little surface low off the VI coast. Should do the trick.  

Edited December 17, 2022 by Brennan

[TT-SEA]

Very foggy here with thick frost... was not expecting so much fog but apparently onshore flow is increasing now and the wind is in the process of switching from east to south this morning.    

And what happens the next 5 days is clear as mud.   The ECMWF, EPS, and control run all took a step back with the cold but are all snowier now for the Seattle area as a result of less southward suppression.

The 06Z GFS was a little colder and shows much more snow up north for Whatcom County and SW BC with the transition process on Thursday into Friday.

So I guess they all went towards compromise.

[Timmy]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Very foggy here with thick frost... was not expecting so much fog but apparently onshore flow is increasing now and the wind is in the process of switching from east to south this morning.    

And what happens the next 5 days is clear as mud.   The ECMWF, EPS, and control run all took a step back with the cold but are all snowier now for the Seattle area as a result of less southward suppression.

Are you referencing the 06z the access I get on tropical is not good. Looked warmer and moister

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Timmy said:

Are you referencing the 06z the access I get on tropical is not good. Looked warmer and moister

06Z ECMWF or EPS?

[Gradient Keeper]

Big 12z runs this morning. Huge. Need them to hold the arctic trough/PV lobe over southern BC and be COLD!

[Timmy]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

06Z ECMWF or EPS?

The 06z euro.

 

 

I see now that the 06z eps was a step back though too, as far as temps are concerned

Edited December 17, 2022 by Timmy

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Timmy said:

The 06z euro

Yeah... northward shift.     A little warmer and snowier on Tuesday up here as result.  

[Gradient Keeper]

At 4 AM arctic front moving down into southern BC.

[TT-SEA]

12Z NAM still sending the snow on Tuesday way north... but is actually much colder for Portland presumably because that allows for an east wind through the gorge.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

Guys, it can’t snow if there is no precipitation. The GFS has been right for the last 6-8 runs. There’s very little QPF to work with. Every system keeps getting neutered, split, or goes 8 million miles north. A tale as old as time.

[Kayla]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

At 4 AM arctic front moving down into southern BC.

Seems like now is as good as time as any to start tracking this thing in realtime. Models have been garbage anyway!

[umadbro]

6 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Guys, it can’t snow if there is no precipitation. The GFS has been right for the last 6-8 runs. There’s very little QPF to work with. Every system keeps getting neutered, split, or goes 8 million miles north. A tale as old as time.

Pack it up everyone. This one is over. Shut the forum down.

[GHweatherChris]

5 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Seems like now is as good as time as any to start tracking this thing in realtime. Models have been garbage anyway!

I am starting to think it's an initialization thing with the models, especially in regards to short term ramifications.

[TT-SEA]

Just noticed that the 06Z ICON brought back a major snowstorm for Tuesday.   The 12Z run is starting now.

[Deweydog]

Brrr! Cold out this morning on the way to Willamette National!

[Darrington Troll]

6 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Pack it up everyone. This one is over. Shut the forum down.

False 

[Gradient Keeper]

22.5 COLD!

[TT-SEA]

12Z ICON also showing snow for Tuesday... the last 2 runs have been much snowier than the ugly 00Z run.

[TacomaWx]

20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just noticed that the 06Z ICON brought back a major snowstorm for Tuesday.   The 12Z run is starting now.

The ups and downs the last few days on the models has been torture. I think it’s safe to say IMO I’ve never seen it so bad. Odds are definitely a little better for a good outcome in western WA…but it also feels like the rug could be pulled out entirely on everyone south of the border at a moments notice or everyone could be huge winners just 72 HOURS out. 

[TT-SEA]

Waiting for the 12Z ICON snow map on WB... but I can tell its going to be pretty ridiculous for the Seattle area.

 

[runninthruda206]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Waiting for the 12Z ICON snow map on WB... but I can tell its going to be pretty ridiculous for the Seattle area.

 

Wow!

[RentonHill]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Waiting for the 12Z ICON snow map on WB... but I can tell its going to be pretty ridiculous for the Seattle area.

 

[T-Town]

34 here this morning. Very frosty yesterday morning but no frost today. 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, T-Town said:

34 here this morning. Very frosty yesterday morning but no frost today. 

Got down to 32 at midnight but has been 33-34 degrees here all morning as well. 

[jakerepp]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Waiting for the 12Z ICON snow map on WB... but I can tell its going to be pretty ridiculous for the Seattle area.

 

Wow, that is some eye candy.

 

Flying up to Boise this afternoon. Had to pull the thicker clothing out of the storage unit (Aka the in laws garage).

[Gradient Keeper]

ICON much colder Day 4 to 5

[MWG]

Wow it’s actually 19F here!

 

[The Cats Meow]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Waiting for the 12Z ICON snow map on WB... but I can tell its going to be pretty ridiculous for the Seattle area.

 

That could lay down quite a few inches of snow across Western Washington.  Wow.