PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Cloud]

Current and then forecast for 4pm. 

[Skagit Weather]

1 minute ago, Gummy said:

Temps are definitely not dropping as fast as modeling by the WRF, not a big shocker.

 

Yeah, WRF is probably 4-6 hours ahead as usual and 3-5 degrees too cold overall. It shows low teens tomorrow morning which I think is probably unlikely.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Radar and sat loop looking good. Really might get fun tonight.  

[Doinko]

22 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It seems like the ECMWF is a bit anemic with the CAA, and the GFS might be too aggressive.  A compromise would work for many of us.

Even the ECMWF advects Portland into the teens in Thursday

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Cloud]

This is better. Precip looks better than I thought behind the front 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said:

Sunday snow not happening?

Happening here.

[Meatyorologist]

This is a lot of precip that wasn't depicted by any mesoscale models... In fact, the GFS is the most spot on by far. There are going to be surprises this week, beginning today... Already some low-topped thundersnow in Vancouver BC!

We're on this ride now, people. It's come.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Leading edge of the front should have passed at around 1000 to 1030 in Everett. Pressure wobbles at the bottom but the steaming gun is the drop of humidity on two of my out door sensors. The sea foam color sensor coming down from 100% is an environmental sensor at 15ft above the ground. The far purple one that is adjacent is two inches above the ground.

[snow_wizard]

It's going to be really interesting to see exactly how that C-Zone over King County being shown tonight on the ECMWF sets up.  10 miles south of what is being shown and I get a bunch of snow.  10 miles north I get pretty much nothing.  This will have big implications for most places in King County.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Outflow is starting to crank up. Sandy pt shores gusting to 39mph and just 22 degrees.  

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Observed something interesting too and maybe the professional mets can chime in, but there seemed to be a band of warmer air pushed ahead of the front. Two of these sensors picked it up well.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Snyder with a new video.  Of course he mainly focuses on Washington. 

youtu.be/9RJe6w1cnqY

 

[Meatyorologist]

Arctic front reaching Marysville now. Might stall towards the Cascade foothills as strong convergence develops.

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

The arctic front passed Anacortes a little over half an hour ago.

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So you can imagine what 1-2” of ZR did down here in February 2021. Lol

A lot of it depends on the resiliency and adaptiveness of the trees, obviously. 1/4" of ice is enough to do a number on them for a lot of the westside, but then you look at the gorge and even an inch of ice is pretty coded into their evolution there and much less of a big deal.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Forum Admin said:

Observed something interesting too and maybe the professional mets can chime in, but there seemed to be a band of warmer air pushed ahead of the front. Two of these sensors picked it up well.

My guess is temporary mixing, but if there is a pressure spike it could be adiabatic?

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Forum Admin said:

Leading edge of the front should have passed at around 1000 to 1030 in Everett. Pressure wobbles at the bottom but the steaming gun is the drop of humidity on two of my out door sensors. The sea foam color sensor coming down from 100% is an environmental sensor at 15ft above the ground. The far purple one that is adjacent is two inches above the ground.

Excellent analysis!

One pretty interesting thing here is the temp is slowly falling during the day with a SW wind.  Not easy to do.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Went and watched the World Cup Final at a cafe that belongs to a friend of my son's this morning so just now checking in.  Not sure what time it started snowing, but we have about 1" and it is already down to 20 degrees at my house.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Got tipsy at a holiday party last night. Ppl wanted to know why I was reading a weather forum instead of taking shots. They don’t know

[smerfylicious]

@Brian_in_Leavenworth where did the leavenworth live cams go? I need my Bavarian fix

[Chewbacca Defense]

Here is a video from downtown right after the match, and I came home to a very happy puppy who is LOVING this.  We pretty much had to drag her back inside

 

 

[snow_wizard]

This air mass is the real deal.  Down to 19 in Sumas now.  They have already had a very cold December and they will be in the deep freeze this week.  Coldest December on record is certainly possible there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

A lot of it depends on the resiliency and adaptiveness of the trees, obviously. 1/4" of ice is enough to do a number on them for a lot of the westside, but then you look at the gorge and even an inch of ice is pretty coded into their evolution there and much less of a big deal.

Tree type is a big one too. Conifers do better. The deciduous trees on the other hand. 

[MossMan]

My dogs as usual do not want to come in when it’s snowing! Lull in the snow, temp up to 33.1

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah I remember before the February 1995 and December 2008 arctic fronts the temp shooting up to around 40 right ahead of the arctic front. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Today's front looks very stratified. 

[Skagit Weather]

31.8F and light to moderate snow! It started sticking a bit ago and it looks like I have 0.1-0.2” on grass and elevated surfaces! First accumulation of the winter!

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Tree type is a big one too. Conifers do better. The deciduous trees on the other hand. 

I could envision a worst case scenario where a 2022-esque fall leads into a cold snap/ice storm combo in early-mid Nov. Tons of leaves on deciduous trees and the beginning of cold pool/inversion season to support ZR. Would be some east coast style ice storm destruction.

[Terreboner]

I wouldn't call it an arctic front with temps above freezing on the other side.  Weak sauce.  

[TacomaWx]

Still not over for Olympia to Seattle. Even if that low comes in a bit north like shown on some models today…we will likely transition back to snow on the back edge of the front Tuesday night. There’s still 48 hours for the low to maybe move a bit south too but I wouldn’t expect a huge shift at this time. Overall next week many people will likely get snow south of Seattle still wether it be tonight, Tuesday or late next week in this scenario. It’ll get cold for sure on Wednesday and Thursday as well. 

[joelgombiner]

15 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Outflow is starting to crank up. Sandy pt shores gusting to 39mph and just 22 degrees.  

BLI-YWL down to -16 mb. 

[MossMan]

Gusty WIND! From the N! A few flakes flying wildly about. 

[snow_wizard]

For people in King County.  Tonight is the time to watch.  Some areas should get some good snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

I could envision a worst case scenario where a 2022-esque fall leads into a cold snap/ice storm combo in early-mid Nov. Tons of leaves on deciduous trees and the beginning of cold pool/inversion season to support ZR. Would be some east coast style ice storm destruction.

The trees around here have been through a lot the past few years. Sounds like the power is actually out at my house right now because some girl flipped her car and took out a power pole.

[SnowWillarrive]

23 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Don't fret i got your back 

You making me feel a little better

[fubario]

Lionel Richie is truly the GOAT.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

I wouldn't call it an arctic front with temps above freezing on the other side.  Weak sauce.  

It's just a technical term.  It's where the pressure is higher both north and south of the front. There is also a dew point drop associated with the front.  Whatcom County is not weak sauce right now BTW.

[Jbolin]

F*** YOU ECMWF.

Just F*** OFF.

[SouthHillFrosty]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Still not over for Olympia to Seattle. Even if that low comes in a bit north like shown on some models today…we will likely transition back to snow on the back edge of the front Tuesday night. There’s still 48 hours for the low to maybe move a bit south too but I wouldn’t expect a huge shift at this time. Overall next week many people will likely get snow south of Seattle still wether it be tonight, Tuesday or late next week in this scenario. It’ll get cold for sure on Wednesday and Thursday as well. 

EPS look improved