PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Phishy Wx]

NWS Spokane just went even colder in the afternoon AFD

 

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane         3  14  -3   4 -15   0 /  20  60  40   0   0   0 
Coeur d'Alene   7  16  -1   5 -11   1 /  20  80  50   0   0   0 
Pullman        15  22   5   9 -13   3 /  40  60  60  10   0   0 
Lewiston       25  32  16  20  -7   8 /  50  50  70  10   0   0 
Colville       -7  11  -9   5 -24   5 /  10  60  20   0   0   0 
Sandpoint       7  12  -2   4 -11   3 /  20  70  50   0   0   0 
Kellogg        15  22   3   8 -11   0 /  30  90  80   0   0   0 
Moses Lake      3  15  -2   9 -16   6 /  10  30  20   0   0   0 
Wenatchee       4  11   4   7 -10   5 /  20  60  30   0   0   0 
Omak           -1   3  -8   3 -18   5 /  20  60  20   0   0   0 

[yellowstone]

Mist with a few flurries here. Radar starting to fill with light echoes. 

[Perturbed Member]

Mark Nelsen thinks PDX is pretty screwed from ice and power outages.

"

• Assume much of the I-5 corridor could “shut down” driving-wise Friday, for one day. Then there’s a decent chance at least half the metro area is still frozen through Saturday. Maybe roads are much better west/south metro…maybe. Worst-case scenario is that it’ll be hard to move in much of the Portland metro area all of Friday and Saturday with lots of freezing rain and power outages. A memorable Christmas ice storm. Best case is that most of the I-5 corridor is in good shape by midday Saturday and ice storm conditions are only confined to east metro areas near the Gorge. That’s best case.

"

He also does not believe we will have snow for very long if we get it at all. 

"Most models have precipitation arriving 4pm-10pm Thursday. That’s just a first guess. So the first snow/ice pellets/freezing rain MAY impact the Thursday evening commute. If it starts as snow, it can’t last long because forecast soundings imply warming overhead happens quickly."

 

I hope PDX can somehow eek out a quick inch or two before that nasty ice but the models have all been consistent in showing significant WAA. The soundings show steady easterly flow up to 900mb even during the steady precip but I don't think that is quite deep enough for snow. 

[runninthruda206]

wow this may really happen 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

7 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

It honestly doesn't appear that more $$ will even help in a seemingly endless evolution process at least concerning snowfall.

The PNW will always be tough, and better forecasts will happen with experienced forecasters being able to use data from past events to help with current events.  That may be the best that can be done for a few decades.

[WildrootParable]

Genuine flurries now. Flakes are still small but there's definitely more of it. 

[Requiem]

14 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I'm really disappointed I'll be missing this east wind storm.

What's the criteria for a HWW? The WRF is forecasting 50mph+ gusts for my location in Bethany in the west metro

 

I hike up in north Forest Park pretty often-- I can only imagine how terrifying it would be to hike the Solitude Trail with those kinds of winds roaring above.

[LowerGarfield]

15 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

PSA:

The NWS always appreciates observations, especially detailed observations that everyone on here is capable of giving.  That can be done thru Twitter, as they often set up a feed for that, or the mPing app.  That can include final snowfall amounts, when the snow starts/stops, precip type, dew point, etc

This helps them with short term forecasts as well as future forecasts as they can learn from them.  A few years ago they had a freezing rain advisory for Leavenworth, but I notified them that the rain was not freezing, temps were above freezing and the roads were fine.  They thanked me and told me that they were able to cancel the zr advisory thanks to my observations.  So yes it helps. 

We all want better forecasts.  Yes, more $ to build better models helps, but the more data they have, the better.  And it can also help to inform the public about conditions.  This will be even more helpful during the possible freezing rain event later this week.   Instead of just complaining about forecasts not verifying, let's be a part of the solution.

I know a lot of you live on the west side but if you live in a rural place like I do where radar isn't always accurate....or a really unique location like MossMan then those observations really help at the microlevel.

[Phishy Wx]

8 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

NWS Spokane just went even colder in the afternoon AFD

 

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane         3  14  -3   4 -15   0 /  20  60  40   0   0   0 
Coeur d'Alene   7  16  -1   5 -11   1 /  20  80  50   0   0   0 
Pullman        15  22   5   9 -13   3 /  40  60  60  10   0   0 
Lewiston       25  32  16  20  -7   8 /  50  50  70  10   0   0 
Colville       -7  11  -9   5 -24   5 /  10  60  20   0   0   0 
Sandpoint       7  12  -2   4 -11   3 /  20  70  50   0   0   0 
Kellogg        15  22   3   8 -11   0 /  30  90  80   0   0   0 
Moses Lake      3  15  -2   9 -16   6 /  10  30  20   0   0   0 
Wenatchee       4  11   4   7 -10   5 /  20  60  30   0   0   0 
Omak           -1   3  -8   3 -18   5 /  20  60  20   0   0   0 

yeah 0 High for Thursday I think. brrr

[Terreboner]

Just now, LowerGarfield said:

I know a lot of you live on the west side but if you live in a rural place like I do where radar isn't always accurate....or a really unique location like MossMan then those observations really help at the microlevel.

Try living here where we don't even have radar coverage.  The only time you see anything is if it is above 25-30K high, like thunderstorms.

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Requiem said:

I hike up in north Forest Park pretty often-- I can only imagine how terrifying it would be to hike the Solitude Trail with those kinds of winds roaring above.

Yeah that would probably be crazy. I live right in the 50mph bullseye west of the west hills. Can make for some amazing snowstorms though

[LowerGarfield]

2 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Try living here where we don't even have radar coverage.  The only time you see anything is if it is above 25-30K high, like thunderstorms.

I bet PDT loves your reports.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

18z RGEM, snow arrives with the leading edge of the system at PDX Metro by a Thursday 4pm, then switches over to sleet Thursday evening.

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, LowerGarfield said:

I bet PDT loves your reports.

I don't really give them any, directly.  I trust about 20% of what they say for here as they are primarily focused on the Blue mountain foothills, lol.  Silly place for a NWS office with such sparse population.

[Meatyorologist]

Just woke up...

Looking at sfc temps, things are much more in line with GFS/ICON than NAM/Euro. Stalled out now at 31/29, down from 32/28 earlier with a continuing north wind. Another note would be the upping in timing on radar. That means decreased upstream cyclogenesis.

Anthony was messaging Jay Albrecht about today and he concurs; notes that satellite trends show erroneous deepening on our warmer members. He thinks the warm sector will erode over time and there will be a large thumping of snow.

If either of those models verify it will be by far the largest snowstorm ever recorded at my house, and probably for this century at KSEA.

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Just woke up...

Looking at sfc temps, things are much more in line with GFS/ICON than NAM/Euro. Stalled out now at 31/29, down from 32/28 earlier with a continuing north wind. Another note would be the upping in timing on radar. That means decreased upstream cyclogenesis.

Anthony was messaging Jay Albrecht about today and he concurs; notes that satellite trends show erroneous deepening on our warmer members. He thinks the warm sector will erode over time and there will be a large thumping of snow.

If either of those models verify it will be by far the largest snowstorm ever recorded at my house, and probably for this century at KSEA.

Currently 33 where I am, so probably a good bet that cools down tonight?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

They need a bigger thermometer 

 

[Phishy Wx]

brrrr

 

 

 

 

[snowbustcity]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Just woke up...

Looking at sfc temps, things are much more in line with GFS/ICON than NAM/Euro. Stalled out now at 31/29, down from 32/28 earlier with a continuing north wind. Another note would be the upping in timing on radar. That means decreased upstream cyclogenesis.

Anthony was messaging Jay Albrecht about today and he concurs; notes that satellite trends show erroneous deepening on our warmer members. He thinks the warm sector will erode over time and there will be a large thumping of snow.

If either of those models verify it will be by far the largest snowstorm ever recorded at my house, and probably for this century at KSEA.

Well, that would mean great new for me too then neighbor !

[LowerGarfield]

Spokane should take Ellensburg and vicinity and PDT should take my county and Asotin too since our weather is more similar to theirs. But for all my complaints, Spokane does cover my area fairly well and they need spotters in my area badly.

 

I'd hate to move somewhere like Sacramento where they only want spotters if you live above 2-3k ft (the snow line in CA) and if you watch several hours of videos on top of regular NWS requirements. Some offices don't even have spotter programs. Reporting is half the fun.

[HoodCanalBridge]

Light, steady snow shower  just started here.  Tiny little flakes!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

snow picking up here in port orchard, 31 degrees.

[Weiner Warrior]

Anyone else excited about this?

 

 

[Gummy]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Just woke up...

If either of those models verify it will be by far the largest snowstorm ever recorded at my house, and probably for this century at KSEA.

 

Really? Bigger than the dumping in February 2021? That system had a ton of moisture with it.  I guess it is possible when you factor in that this storm may have more convergence enhancement involved.

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, Ice_is_Everywhere said:

Currently 33 where I am, so probably a good bet that cools down tonight?

Much better than the 36/33 spread the Euro was gunning for. It'll cool a bit as precip increases.

[PuyallupChris]

Is the snow/rain cutoff line more stark than normal for this event?  In my limited experience model riding, I don't remember seeing such big differences within just a few miles, not elevation-related. It seems crazy there could be a difference of 2 inches vs. 10 inches just by being 2 or 3 miles away. 

Us Pierce Countyers are ruining our fingers looking at these models. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

33 and light snow. Glad the King was right. 

[Jbolin]

5 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

They need a bigger thermometer 

 

For a sec. I thought that said Judah

[TacomaWx]

[Randyc321]

57 minutes ago, SnowPlz said:

We are looking good here in east Kitsap 

Finally, huh

[Jbolin]

Winter Weather Advisory now up for Pierce, Thurston and eastern portions of Gray's Harbor counties. 

[KingstonWX]

Flurries turning to real snow now.

[Randyc321]

40 minutes ago, MWG said:

Cloudy day!

Forecast- Cloudy with occasional large rectangular semi-transparent UFOs

[Seattle]

It is precipitating here, but it's so light and small, I am unsure if it's a drizzle mix or just all very tiny flakes.*

JAYA is onboard and I am letting myself believe. Feeling genuine "its coming" excitement for this snow event for the first time.

 

*JK - it is fully snow here. Flakes increased in size now, there's no doubt about it.

[TacomaWx]

36 here but no precipitation. DP is 33 so I think it’ll be rain if we get anything but that will change later. 

[SnarkyGoblin]

1 minute ago, JSnowlin said:

Winter Weather Advisory now up for Pierce, Thurston and eastern portions of Gray's Harbor counties. 

Yeah...trajectory of low has been shifting south slowly.  To my extremely untrained eye, the Pierce/Thurston folks are probably going to overachieve.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

New weather update just posted by Rod Hill.

 

[thisisacreativename]

Temps back below 34 here, very light but steady snow. Should get interesting in a bit.

[jakerepp]

KBOI just updated their graphic. Pretty dang cold on Thursday. 

 

 

[Meatyorologist]

Temp never actually went above freezing today despite really threatening to. This airmass has held its ground. The Euro is far too warm this evening, even more so than the GFS is cold.

All obs KSEA north show subfreezing DP's and lowering temps in the last half hour. I see no model that warms temperatures up past what they are right now. 3km NAM is likely too aggressive with offshore cyclogenesis near the coast early tomorrow morning; this is a very common bias for the model.

Tonight could be historic.