February 2023 Observations and Discussions

[CentralNebWeather]

We keep adding to our snow pack. Taken this afternoon  

[Beltrami Island]

This has been the most boring winter since Christmas in NW MN and ND.  Bismarck CWA up to 70 days without a winter storm warning issue.  Grand Forks was up to 57 days prior to earlier this week, the string ended only because a couple of the far SE counties in their CWA were issued a WSW.  There have been a few Blizzard warnings but there was not much if any snowfall associated with those.  33 days for the UP seems odd, I guess Lake Effect warnings and advisories may have been issued in their case.    

[Niko]

Nice band of snow about to hit the Chicago area. 

[Tom]

28 minutes ago, Niko said:

Nice band of snow about to hit the Chicago area. 

Lots of verga here and not much reaching the ground…hope you get to see it snow out in the city!  It always looks magical when it’s snowing downtown.

[metallica470]

31 minutes ago, Niko said:

Nice band of snow about to hit the Chicago area. 

Coming down pretty good here in the south suburbs! Huge flakes blowing sideways!  Strange seeing snow again lol

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, metallica470 said:

Coming down pretty good here in the south suburbs! Huge flakes blowing sideways!  Strange seeing snow again lol

Just started snowing here also…nice size flakes as you mentioned.

[james1976]

Stat padder underway! Fatties comin down. Gonna be short lived but maybe fluff up another inch. Looks pretty with the snow falling lightly with no wind.

[Madtown]

5 hours ago, Beltrami Island said:

This has been the most boring winter since Christmas in NW MN and ND.  Bismarck CWA up to 70 days without a winter storm warning issue.  Grand Forks was up to 57 days prior to earlier this week, the string ended only because a couple of the far SE counties in their CWA were issued a WSW.  There have been a few Blizzard warnings but there was not much if any snowfall associated with those.  33 days for the UP seems odd, I guess Lake Effect warnings and advisories may have been issued in their case.    

That 33 for the yoop is correct. Hadn't been anything till this last one 

[Anti Marine Layer]

12 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Local grid has 1-2” of rain for Sunday night. And then near spring weather continues.

No Blizzard Warnings for you.

[Niko]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Lots of verga here and not much reaching the ground…hope you get to see it snow out in the city!  It always looks magical when it’s snowing downtown.

Its really coming down now....moderately. Forecast calling for 1-3 inches. Everything snow covered. I guess I had to come to Chicago to see some snow this winter.

[Jayhawker85]

Kc had a surprise with this little system tonight. Right at rush hour a band of freezing rain swept through the area icing things up. I got caught up in it from a drive from Kearny to Lawrence… was not a fun drive home!

[mlgamer]

4 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Kc had a surprise with this little system tonight. Right at rush hour a band of freezing rain swept through the area icing things up. I got caught up in it from a drive from Kearny to Lawrence… was not a fun drive home!

I made a trip from Olathe to Topeka earlier this evening that took about an hour and 45 minutes instead of the normal hour. K-10 was awful with most overpasses ice covered from Olathe to Lawrence. Yep, not a fun drive for sure.

[OttumwaSnomow]

Guess we better start  looking at March?   Could be coldest part of winter.

[OKwx2k4]

9 hours ago, Beltrami Island said:

This has been the most boring winter since Christmas in NW MN and ND.  Bismarck CWA up to 70 days without a winter storm warning issue.  Grand Forks was up to 57 days prior to earlier this week, the string ended only because a couple of the far SE counties in their CWA were issued a WSW.  There have been a few Blizzard warnings but there was not much if any snowfall associated with those.  33 days for the UP seems odd, I guess Lake Effect warnings and advisories may have been issued in their case.    

That's a glaring gap. Weird.

What is remarkable is the number of zones at 0. Wow.

[OKwx2k4]

10 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

We keep adding to our snow pack. Taken this afternoon  

I like the giant drifts! Pretty awesome!

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 29/22 there was a trace of snow fall. There was 1” of snow/ice on the ground (here at my house there is just over 1.5” of snow/ice on the ground) and yesterday had 241 minutes of sunshine good for 37% The overnight low here in MBY was 23 and there was around a half inch of new snow fall. At the current time there is some light snow falling with a temperature of 25. For today the average H/L is now up to 37/22. The record high of 61 was set in 1976 and the record low of -14 was set in 1950 the record snow fall amount of 8.1” fell I 1935.

[westMJim]

Some fun information. Based on statewide averages, our state ranks as the sixth snowiest in the Union. On a list of snowiest U.S. cities with populations greater than 100,000, While this has been a “mild” winter Michigan none the less has the most with four cities in the top 25; Grand Rapids is highest at number four. Only the cities of Syracuse and Rochester, New York, and Anchorage, Alaska, beat out G.R. The small Upper Peninsula town of Calumet is the snowiest place in Michigan with a yearly average of 187.4 inches and a record total of 390.4 inches set during the winter of 1978-79

https://goldensnowglobe.com/current-top-10-snowiest-cities/

[Tom]

7 hours ago, Niko said:

Its really coming down now....moderately. Forecast calling for 1-3 inches. Everything snow covered. I guess I had to come to Chicago to see some snow this winter.

What a perfect Friday night, right?  Nice little overachiever and a pleasant surprise to wake up to a fresh 1.7" of snow.  It was "fitting" to have it snow on one of the coldest  days this month (29F High Temp).  It came down pretty hard at one point around 9:00pm.  How has the visit been so far?

 

7 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Guess we better start  looking at March?   Could be coldest part of winter.

The only difference is, and it's a big one, seasonal norms are much higher so Much BN temps is like 32F for most areas across the MW/GL's region.  Nevertheless, it does appear Ol' Man Winter isn't done yet in the Snow dept which will prob be a good thing for your business!

[CentralNebWeather]

6 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I like the giant drifts! Pretty awesome!

Some of those have been around since December 

[Clinton]

March 3rd and 4th looking interesting for the Ohio Valley and the Lower Lakes on the latest GEFS.

EPS still not completely sold.

GEPS is a little different.

[Clinton]

Another storm showing up on the ensembles around the 4th and 5th.

March 10th-12th shows some promise.

[Tom]

Just now, Clinton said:

Another storm showing up on the ensembles around the 4th and 5th.

The 8th-11th period has eyes for the Heartland and it should be smack dab in the middle of the MW region and parts of the S Plains.  The high lat blocking will be fully present and I expect a big storm to develop during this period and cut towards the OHV/Lower Lakes.  My LR call is for KC to be very close to the bullseye and also your area.

[Clinton]

4 minutes ago, Tom said:

The 8th-11th period has eyes for the Heartland and it should be smack dab in the middle of the MW region and parts of the S Plains.  The high lat blocking will be fully present and I expect a big storm to develop during this period and cut towards the OHV/Lower Lakes.  My LR call is for KC to be very close to the bullseye and also your area.

We are to the time of year where the NAO is the beast of teleconnections.  It will be a close call as it appears the EPO will also tank and dump some cold or Artic air into the middle of the country.  KC could see some flooding rains and/or a late season snow for sure.

[Clinton]

Instead of fumbling all over myself talking about the JMAs, I'll just share Bastardis take.

Joe Bastardi
Feb 24 2023

JMA commentary

February 23, 2023: JMA Commentary

The JMA's 500mb forecast for Week 1:

The JMA's surface temperature forecast for Week 1:

The JMA's vertical velocity forecast for Week 1:

The strong troughs over the Western Hemisphere in the 500mb forecast, along with the vertical velocity pattern, indicate a Phase 3 MJO.

The influence of Phase 8 can be seen over Africa.

The JMA's MJO forecast is in line with this, taking it into the null phase between Phases 8 and 3.

 

The JMA's 500mb forecast for Week 2:

The JMA's surface temperature forecast for Week 2 is very warm.

The JMA's vertical velocity forecast for Week 2:

 

In Week 2, the influence of Phase 8 remains with precipitation over Africa, but you can see some influence from Phase 6 in the western Indian Ocean and Phases 4 and 5 in the Southwest Pacific.

 

Also interestingly enough, the 12z GFS Ensemble now brings the trough in the western United States over to the east, as shown below on its 500mb forecast.

Because of the trough over the East, the GFS Ensembles have a much colder surface temperature forecast for Week 2.

 

The JMA's 500mb forecast for Weeks 3 and 4:

The GFS Extended Ensemble's 500mb for Week 3:

The GFS Extended Ensemble's 500mb for Week 4:

The JMA's surface temperature forecast for Weeks 3 and 4:

The GFS Extended Ensemble's surface temperature for Week 3:

The GFS Extended Ensemble's surface temperature for Week 4:

The JMA's vertical velocity forecast for Weeks 3 and 4 has shades of Phases 8 and 1 with a bit of a weak Phase 5 as well.

 

[Clinton]

9 hours ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Kc had a surprise with this little system tonight. Right at rush hour a band of freezing rain swept through the area icing things up. I got caught up in it from a drive from Kearny to Lawrence… was not a fun drive home!

 

9 hours ago, mlgamer said:

I made a trip from Olathe to Topeka earlier this evening that took about an hour and 45 minutes instead of the normal hour. K-10 was awful with most overpasses ice covered from Olathe to Lawrence. Yep, not a fun drive for sure.

Sounds like it was a real mess up there.  Nothing fell at my place and I'm not disappointed lol.

Tweet

KMBC

 

@kmbc

 

 

HIGHWAY CLOSINGS, as of 8:30 p.m. I-435 NB at K-10 WB -- Lenexa I-470 EB/71 Highway -- Grandview Triangle I-670 WB/Genessee -- Kansas City, Mo. I-70 EB near 40 Highway -- Kansas City, Mo. MORE: https://kmbc.com/article/kansas-missouri-over-20-crashes-reported-on-kansas-city-highways/43068235?fbclid=IwAR2hksgISiuZRYnFSLEYqm2q1S2TSIFKeluRf9xAVoKoBDn_H-W8esxOJ0w…

 

 

[chescowxman]

This morning's low of 22.8 was our coldest morning since February 5th. Today may be our 1st day that stays below freezing since the 4th. We could also see some occasional snow showers this afternoon which could leave a dusting in some areas. Milder tomorrow with rain arriving by Monday PM could be mixed with a little snow at the start.

Records for today: High 77 degrees (1930) / Low 2 below zero (1914) / Precipitation 1.11" (1916) / Snow 5.5" (2010)

[CentralNebWeather]

If the GFS verifies, winter still has a long ways to go in the Central Plains. Goodness. 

[Black Hole]

Moderate risk up from parts of OK tomorrow night. I've got an enhanced here for wind and isolated tornadoes. Wouldn't be Surpised to see some gusts of 60 to 70 mph with the squall.

[CentralNebWeather]

Wow, didn’t realize Holdrege has been the wettest reported location in the NWS Hastings 30 county area. What a massive difference from last year at this time. 

[OKwx2k4]

There's so much to comment on up there about the wx going into March that is great. 

Basically, I'm not hanging up my winter weather thoughts completely this season until April 1. That SSW event a bit ago and the stuff that was shared from Mr. Bastardi are why. 

My vision for this winter has always had it closing out with a true old school coast to coast winter storm and future looks in modeling actually dictate that possiblity so we will see. Not extremely cold but long cold spells and its been truly the cold or "cool" season here since early October thanks to the NAO dips and NE US early cold blasts at that time. 

This massive troughing looks to continue to be a notable mark in our pattern cycles until fall. 

Thankful @Black Hole pointed out the severe weather threat. La Niña doesn't usually exit quietly so its going to be a bumpy spring. 

[OKwx2k4]

59 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Wow, didn’t realize Holdrege has been the wettest reported location in the NWS Hastings 30 county area. What a massive difference from last year at this time. 

Glad to see you all getting good solid precip and snow back up there! 

[gimmesnow]

Seems like the last few years have been catastrophic ski hill rains then getting cold again. Hope they can make it through this storm, thankfully it's happening in the early morning so it should limit the carnage. This ice melting is total chaos, though. Lots of loud thuds and bad noises as it falls off of trees and the house.

[gabel23]

2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Wow, didn’t realize Holdrege has been the wettest reported location in the NWS Hastings 30 county area. What a massive difference from last year at this time. 

Meanwhile my area is the driest in the area. Just been getting missed in all directions. Need to start getting lucky as we transition to the spring otherwise will be in trouble again. 

[Money]

Picked up another 3 Inches of snow last night. Gonna be a fun mess with this snow depth and then almost 2 inches of rain on monday 

[westMJim]

There is still a good inch or more of snow/ice on the ground here in NW GR. The official H/L low for yesterday was 32/23 there was 0.02” of precipitation that was 0.7” of snow fall. For the season Grand Rapids is now up to 86.8” of total snow fall. The overnight low here in my yard was 25 and at the current time with clear skies it is 28. For today the average H/L is 37/22 the record high of 64 was set in 1944 and the record low of -9 was set in 1963 the record snow fall amount of 4.5” fell in 1912. It looks like we have more freezing rain and wind to contend with for tomorrow morning.

 

[Clinton]

Some big rumbles on the way this evening for mby.  Slight risk has been expanded over KC and Enhanced Risk just to my south.

 261300Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
   OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   An extensive swath of severe thunderstorm winds, some exceeding 75
   mph, is expected this evening into tonight from the eastern Texas
   Panhandle across parts of Oklahoma to the western Ozarks region.  A
   few tornadoes also are possible, with potential for significant/EF2+
   damage.

   ...Synopsis...
   A series of well-developed shortwave perturbations moving over the
   West Coast States will be the greatest mid/upper-level influences on
   convective potential this period.  One trough will move ashore in
   the Pacific Northwest and northern CA through the remainder of the
   morning, as another upstream trough digs southeastward out of the
   Gulf of Alaska region.  The latter should be approaching the West
   Coast by 12Z tomorrow.

   The combined effects of those troughs will contribute to eastward
   ejection/acceleration of a compact, pronounced cyclone -- initially 
   evident in moisture-channel imagery over southern parts of NV/CA and
   northern Baja.  The 500-mb low and its accompanying, intense
   shortwave trough will move east-northeastward today, reaching
   eastern parts of CO and NM by 00Z.  By 12Z, the low should reach
   northern MO, with the trough becoming negatively tilted and
   extending toward the Mid-South region.

   The 11Z surface chart showed a wavy warm/marine frontal zone across
   southern LA and southeast/south-central TX, bending southward over
   northeastern Coahuila and Nuevo Leon.  This boundary should become
   more diffuse through the day amidst increasing boundary-layer
   southerlies on both sides.  A diffusion/extension of the 60 F
   isodrosotherm north of this boundary already was evident into the
   southern Hill Country/Edwards Plateau area around JCT-SOA.  During
   the 18-21Z period, rapid surface cyclogenesis will occur in an area
   of current lee troughing over eastern CO.  The low will shift into
   northwestern KS, with combined lee trough and Pacific cold front
   southward through the eastern Panhandles and then southwestward over
   the Permian Basin and far west TX.  At that time, the front should
   be catching up to an antecedent dryline that will develop through
   the previous daylight hours near the Caprock, south-southwestward
   across the lowest Pecos Valley area.  The low will deepen as it
   sweeps quickly east-northeastward toward IA overnight, and the cold
   front overtakes the remainder of the dryline.  By 12Z, the front
   should extend from the low across western IL, southeastern MO,
   central AR, and parts of east and south TX.

   ...Southern Plains to Ozarks region...
   Thunderstorms should form quickly late this afternoon, in a
   north/south-aligned belt from parts of southwestern KS across the
   eastern Panhandles of TX/OK.  This activity should include a few
   supercells with damaging gusts, large hail and tornado potential. 
   Over southern parts of the corridor, supercell maturation and
   movement into relatively maximized low-level moisture (with very
   large hodographs) will promote the greatest tornado potential. 
   During the evening, a severe line of thunderstorms should sweep
   east-northeastward over OK and KS, offering localized gusts above 75
   mph and widespread damaging wind.  Some backbuilding into northwest/
   north-central TX is possible, though the southern extent and
   intensity will be limited by weaker deep-layer forcing and stronger
   capping than areas near and north of the Red River.

   A narrow corridor of "just in time" favorable moisture return is
   expected over the eastern Panhandles/western OK and northwest TX
   corridor, just ahead of the dryline and cold front.  This should
   occur in trajectories emanating from near the marine/warm frontal
   zone now near I-10.  Surface dewpoints mainly in the 50s F, with a
   couple hours of some mid/late-afternoon cloud breaks and heating,
   should underlie steep midlevel lapse rates, with MLCAPE around
   1000-1500 J/kg reaching the Red River and perhaps the I-40 area of
   western OK/eastern TX Panhandle.  Buoyancy will diminish northward
   from there, but with at least briefly surface-based inflow parcels
   into southwestern/south-central KS as well.

   The mass response to the fast-moving, compact mid/upper trough will
   lead to a preceding swath of intense winds throughout most of the
   troposphere.  This will include strongly difluent, rapidly
   strengthening mid/upper-level flow over the southern Plains late
   this afternoon into this evening, accompanied by a rapid-onset swath
   of strong DCVA/ascent and nearly collocated frontal lift.  Related
   upscale growth of the convection into an organized complex is
   expected near the western OK/TX Panhandle line, with organization
   further improving eastward into OK.  This should lead to a well-
   developed, aggregate downdraft slab with scattered hurricane-force
   surface wind speeds where the near-surface layer is not too stable. 
   At least isolated significant-gust potential may extend well into
   the Ozarks tonight, even as the complex outruns the narrow/foregoing
   corridor of optimally favorable boundary-layer air and into greater
   stability.

   Regionally rare vertical shear is forecast, with effective-shear
   magnitudes of 55-75 kt.  Very fast storm motions of 50-60 kt
   (Interstate highway speeds) are likely, both for early-stage
   supercells and elements within the subsequent convective complex,
   based on the forecast deep-layer and mean-wind fields.  These
   extreme storm motions essentially make severe any part of a
   downdraft whose surface translation keeps up with that of the cell
   above.  Such forward speeds also impart substantially greater vector
   flow into the right (south) side of any tornadoes that form,
   increasing significant damage potential there.  This all is probable
   wherever boundary-layer lapse rates are large enough to maintain
   effectively surface-based parcels, which should reach well past the
   I-35 corridor over northern and perhaps central OK.  The 60-70-kt
   western fringes of the LLJ will contribute to very large hodographs
   in the immediate preconvective sector, with effective SRH exceeding
   500 J/kg and 1/2-km SRH over 300 J/kg in some areas.  This should
   help to maintain tornado potential well past the transition to
   quasi-linear mode.

[jaster220]

On 2/22/2023 at 6:45 PM, OttumwaSnomow said:

Gotta say this winter has been just what the doctor  ordered, .51 rain today. Since Dec 1st have had 6 rains of either side  of 1 inch, amazing  for this part of Iowa to get this much precip particularly  rain in winter. And have had 23" of snow on 7 to 9 events.. Have plowed or salted  many properties  10 to 12 times (12 plowable events my avg winter).  All of this while saving on the heat bill!

It's been that much more active there in Iowa? I consider plow-worthy 1.5 to 2" min (depends on density). That's usually the threshold when the streets/roads need attention from municipal dept's. By that measure we've only had a total of (3) events getting plows out here. If you're just talking throwing salt around a business, then yeah, the number would be sig above that since the private contractors will do that for <1" of anything that they can get $$ for, even if it's likely to melt-off on its own by lunchtime.

[jaster220]

On 2/24/2023 at 6:50 AM, Tom said:

Looks like LNK is getting some snow this early morning along with some brutal temps!  Hey, at least some peeps on here are experiencing Real Winter!

 

 

Meanwhile, it's brutal out there where the Upper MW Glacier has been built!

 

The snow cover map really shows what I commented on earlier. Mainly that this is yet another (3rd in a row?) winter that is focused on the Plains/Upr Midwest. Worst of 3 lame ones here (so far), unless March up-ends the running months of well BN snows which I highly doubt happens. Moreso expecting more endless days of late autumn type wx with highs of 40-50F. Not horrible, but not terribly useful temps either, lol. I am shifting gears into full spring mode going forward, so ofc now we'll get BN temps no doubt. 

[OttumwaSnomow]

59 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

It's been that much more active there in Iowa? I consider plow-worthy 1.5 to 2" min (depends on density). That's usually the threshold when the streets/roads need attention from municipal dept's. By that measure we've only had a total of (3) events getting plows out here. If you're just talking throwing salt around a business, then yeah, the number would be sig above that since the private contractors will do that for <1" of anything that they can get $$ for, even if it's likely to melt-off on its own by lunchtime.

We have dozens of high end commercial  accounts, medical facilities, groceries, restaurants, etc. We dont have inch triggers on the majority.  1 inch usually  gets plowed.  We have had 7 separate  events where over 1 inch has fallen but only 1 over 3 inches!  and several others where  we just salted. Also nearly every event has  fallen 4 to 8 am on busy weekdays when all customers  are open for business  and on 2 events because  of the systems  coming in 2 phases we plowed twice!  Its been very very odd. Never thought  we could do so much work on such a warm winter and just 23" so far! Also in general  iowa has colder temperatures  than south Michigan so it will form ice if not removed.  And I think people  in general  have become  wimpy  and have zero tolerance  for walking  thru snow from car to buildings.

[chescowxman]

Yesterday was only our 8th sub freezing day of the winter with a high of only 31.2. Typically through yesterday we would have seen 22 such days already this winter. This underscores how unusually warm this winter season has been across the area! Back to well above normal temps again today with sun returning and highs into the low 50's. Chillier tomorrow with some mixed precipitation arriving late in the day. Here in Chester County it will be mainly some sleet changing to rain before much accumulation. However, you would only have to go north by around 20 miles or so toward the Lehigh Valley to see some accumulating snow and sleet tomorrow evening. Milder again Tuesday through Thursday before another potential winter event may effect us by Friday into next Saturday.

Records for today: High 70 (1930) / Low 6 below (1914) / Precipitation 1.83" (1929) / Snow 8" (2010). That 2 day storm in February 2010 was the last of 3 major snowstorms that month with 13.5" falling from that storm. That followed the 18.3" that fell on the 5th/6th and the 26.8" on the 9th/10th. We ended the month with 62.8" of snow - the 2nd greatest monthly total behind only the 69.8" that fell in February 1899.