Really, really lovely cumulonimbus action tonight! I just happened to have my drone in the car and got some solid shots of DT Seattle/Lake Washington/Mercer Island/Bellevue looking north from Skyway. Alas, the focal length of the lens doesn't do the vertical height justice and my WB was off rendering it into semi-gross HDR territory, but still... fun looking weather! It was quite windy- I was flying right at 390 ft and the drone was giving me all sorts of warnings about sustained winds/gusts.
A most incredible snow storm. At times the snowfall rates have been as heavy or slightly heavier than January 2017. Temp 27.5, Dewpoint: 27.1 with gusty east wind and very heavy snow continuing. I'm at 11 1/2" now! UNBELIEVABLE!!!! This pic does no justice at all.
NBM is quite an interesting product! Their weighting algorithm is moderately complex and dynamic, though does has some drawbacks as we saw yesterday. For those who don't know, NBM is an attempt by NOAA to create a super probabilistic forecast model that ingests output from all the models above and outputs forecast guidance for local offices that help them to gauge the relative odds of particular weather outcomes. The 'special sauce' is the post-processing, normalization and weighting that they d
With the shift across guidance, has come a more niña-like regime (projected) in tropical forcing. Still dominated by MJO/subseasonal conponents, but no hints of that niño-like LF signal near the dateline anymore.
It’s still relatively early, but perhaps the upcoming gyration in the pattern will mark the end of residual niño elements to the system state, and the onset of more systematic -ENSO tendency.
Which would be unfortunate for CA/SW US, though hopefully the last 2yrs have offerred some degree of insurance.
If there’s any saving grace for them, it’s that we don’t have that ridiculously wide & poleward WHEM-NPAC ITCZ/HC system that we saw in 2021 and 2022 (and 2017), so we *should* avoid that beastly, north-shifted 4CH pattern that roasted the SW/Interior West without relent. But I doubt it’ll be enough to avoid widespread above normal departures just about everywhere.
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