December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[snow_wizard]

A realist?

 

Apparently you don't put one bit of stock in what I've been saying about this all along.  You don't contribute anything except pointless doubting.  Give us some evidence.

[Deweydog]

515dm heights in Anchorage is rarely a good teleconnective sign. Just sayin...

[Deweydog]

My NWS contact just sent a bulk email to every media outlet on the west coast.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

This EPS was a fair amount colder than the 12Z run, I will say that.  5-6 degree difference in the ensemble mean for later in the run.

[GHweatherChris]

Apparently you don't put one bit of stock in what I've been saying about this all along. You don't contribute anything except pointless doubting. Give us some evidence.

Why do you take things so personally year after year? I like your enthusiasm but really dislike your inability to allow other opinions that do not match yours, winter after winter.

 

And I have never put myself in a position to need to show evidence, all current maps do that!!

[GHweatherChris]

If this winter ends up widespread awesome somehow, there is not one person on this forum that can argue they were legitimately right about it at all, noone.

[Deweydog]

If this winter ends up widespread awesome somehow, there is not one person on this forum that can argue they were legitimately right about it at all, noone.

MLK

[Gradient Keeper]

515dm heights in Anchorage is rarely a good teleconnective sign. Just sayin...

Yeah we really need to slide that block further east with more amplification. I want to see southern Alaska/Anchorage around 550-570dm. IF that happens, then I'll get excited. With that being said I would not be surprised to see models turn colder well before Day 10 with a favorable blocking pattern setting up.

[Bryant]

You as well, as well as others. And you know what, that is ok, we all don't have to be on board right now.

If you're not on board, why not just shut the f*ck up instead of being a pessimist? It's that easy

[Gradient Keeper]

Cold enough for socks in Alaska

 

12 AM

Allakakeet -59

Arctic Village -56

Bettles -55

Norutak Lake -55

Ruby -55
Telida -54

Tanana -53

Kaiyuh -49

Round Lake -48

Nikolai -48

Manley Hot Springs -47

Mckinley River -46

Kaltag -44

Shungnak -44

Stoney -44

Seven Mile -43

McGrath -42

Ambler -40

Chalkyitsik -40

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z was okay. Pretty big ensemble improvement though. 

[El_Nina]

Up to 36 this morning with fog and 0.11" from last night. Must not have switched to snow.

[TT-SEA]

The EPS has been consistent and the timing is moving up appropriately and the signal is getting stronger.

 

This is coming... any run that does not agree is just model noise.   

 

[FroYoBro]

I want the 12z to give me snow. Thanks.

[Front Ranger]

06z was okay. Pretty big ensemble improvement though.

Definitely moved towards the Euro in the 5-7 day range.

[Front Ranger]

515dm heights in Anchorage is rarely a good teleconnective sign. Just sayin...

That's only at day 8. Higher heights into AK after that.

[Alex_Snakes]

Woke up to a dusting of snow north of Walla Walla this morning.

[Jesse]

Tim's on board guys!!!   

What exactly is coming?

[Jesse]

The correct question is what exactly is not coming?!?!?

Haha good one.

[Jesse]

Picked up .05” rain overnight. There were some very wet flakes mixed in at the offset. Currently 36.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Got another trace of snow overnight. Need to get that weather station up and running.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

The EPS has been consistent and the timing is moving up appropriately and the signal is getting stronger.

 

This is coming... any run that does not agree is just model noise.   

 

I think on the weeklies it also moved the timing up a bit.   In the previous weeklies, the first week of January was mainly warm until about the 6th-7th.  In the new weeklies, it turns chillier about the 4th.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Nice western Wa snow storm next weekend.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Light snow across W. Washington by the morning of the 5th.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not a good run through the mid-range though. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Next weekend is definitely better on the 12z GFS.

 

 

For 6 hours. Then it lifts the cold air north as a low develops offshore. 

[MossMan]

The daily fuzz...Still not spectacular but okay.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The operational GFS was pretty slow to come on board for last Februaries cold too. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

On to the ensembles!

[HighlandExperience]

Next weekend is definitely better on the 12z GFS.

 

Puget Sound Special coming

[Jesse]

Puget Sound Special coming

 

You guys are due after getting so screwed last Feb.

[HighlandExperience]

[FroYoBro]

[Jesse]

Well we are due. We had quite a few bad winters before that

 

Yes and we can't complain too much down here considering the Eugene district in south Portland absolutely KILLED IT at the end of Feb.

[MossMan]

You guys are due after getting so screwed last Feb.

We are still trying to make up for 2016/17!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

All in all the 12z is probably the worst operational GFS run in the past 2-3 days. Aside from 6 hours of light snow in W. Washington and some 1000' snow levels for a day, it was pretty blah. 

[Jesse]

All in all the 12z is probably the worst operational GFS run in the past 2-3 days looking at snow potential for my location specifically. Aside from 6 hours of light snow in W. Washington and some 1000' snow levels for a day, it was pretty blah for my location.

 

Sorry to hear that.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Already massive ensemble improvement for the first trough.

[Jesse]

We are still trying to make up for 2016/17!

 

1/10/17 was an extremely localized setup compared to what the sound saw last February. Not that it matters but let's keep it real.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sorry to hear that.

 

So tell me how that was a great run? It actually has a pretty solid snow event up here with that trough. But any objective observer can see the run overall was not very cold. Open your eyes boy.