Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TigerWoodsLibido]

GFS was a bit of a step back in the snow dept prospects for the valley but if the EC jumps on board then it's gonna get even more lit in here.  At the very least, I think PDX north will see a foot plus.

[Jesse]

Tim you’re gonna wear yourself out, bud.

By being a beacon of honesty and victimhood?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Probably the best GFS ensemble run yet. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

It seemed to recognize the lowlands on the first map... the second map just goes ahead and buries the lowlands in 6+ feet of snow.    

 

Easier that way.   

I looked closely at the city graphics (weathermodels.com) and noticed something.  It was a running day by day ensemble, many members, lots of colors.  After about 15 days, I am guessing, it takes a big jump up in snowfall totals for all cities, so I am guessing there is a big decrease in resolution, hence the really large broad brush.  Not sure if todays map literally means more precip and snow wherever there is snow, or a by product of the resolution change and more snow/precip at the last 3 days vs the last 3 days of the previous run.  

[jakeinthevalley]

GFS dropped the magazine during the reload attempt. Probably saved a lot of lives.

Nah, they were clipped together with blue tape. Blanks.

 

Didn't you learn anything from Die Hard 2?

[TT-SEA]

Jesse has to comment on every single post that Matt makes that references me.   And on other posts that Matt makes that he thinks should reference me.    Its so strange and so easily triggered.  

[High Desert Mat?]

Probably the best GFS ensemble run yet.

Let’s see dem boys!!

[Deweydog]

[TT-SEA]

You're not one to talk.

 

 

Obviously!  

 

But I don't obsess over one members opinion of another member.   That is far too complicated for my small brain.   

[Deweydog]

Looks like I picked the wrong January to join an outdoor naked badminton league...

[jakerepp]

Looks like I picked the wrong January to join an outdoor naked badminton league...

Oh, I’m not the alone that joined the local chapter?

[Front Ranger]

All this talk of reloads and triggered members provides a lot of ammunition for explosive discussions.

[FroYoBro]

No models to look at for a few hours.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Everett Snow

Can u pls post these for PDX, SLE, & EUG?

[High Desert Mat?]

Coldest weather in awhile. Prolonged too. Could last into February. We shall see if that is the case with that pna.

[Esquimalt]

Can u pls post these for PDX, SLE, & EUG?

And YYJ

[snow_wizard]

Quite remarkably there isn't a single ensemble member on the 18z that doesn't have 850s fall at least to -8 at some point.

 

BTW...it appears I spoke too soon about the reload on the 18z.  The big picture looked excellent around day 11, but small details watered it down in the end.  Still a good run IMO.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I kept thinking that I was looking at the same 12z models ensemble mean on days 10-15 as I switched back and forth between them since they all look so similar! Not too often that you see the big three ensemble means looking almost identical on days 10-15.

 

Count me onboard now as well, this thing is coming.

 

GEPS

Screen Shot 2020-01-02 at 1.31.49 PM.png

 

GEFS

Screen Shot 2020-01-02 at 1.31.37 PM.png

 

EPS

Screen Shot 2020-01-02 at 1.31.24 PM.png

Yeah, looks surreal! If you showed this to me at a distance, I'd think they were all the same maps. Really amazing to see this much agreement with all the models.

[Deweydog]

No models to look at for a few hours.

[jakeinthevalley]

Looks like I picked the wrong January to join an outdoor naked badminton league...

Singles or doubles? Asking for an old fishing buddy at the NWS.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

53/43 so far today. Early January torch.

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Winterdog]

Anybody else having trouble getting on the wetterzentrale ensembles site? If possible would someone post the 18Z ensembles for Seattle please?

[Winterdog]

High today of 41 sitting at 38 with heavy drizzle

[snow_wizard]

53/43 so far today. Early January torch.

 

39 here now.  Too bad that stupid temperature spike is coming.

[snow_wizard]

Anybody else having trouble getting on the wetterzentrale ensembles site?

 

I haven't been able to get the old site today.  I wonder if they pulled the plug on it.

 

This is the same site, but new format.  Better in some ways worse in others.

 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&geoid=136221&lid=ENS&bw=

[Winterdog]

39 here now.  Too bad that stupid temperature spike is coming.

Railroad spikes are even dumber

[Frontal Snowsquall]

GFS was a bit of a step back in the snow dept prospects for the valley but if the EC jumps on board then it's gonna get even more lit in here. At the very least, I think PDX north will see a foot plus.

IN TIGER WE TRUST!

[Winterdog]

I haven't been able to get the old site today.  I wonder if they pulled the plug on it.

 

This is the same site, but new format.  Better in some ways worse in others.

 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&geoid=136221&lid=ENS&bw=

Thanks

[Gradient Keeper]

Right now 8 out of the past 10 GFS Op runs have an excellent 500mb pattern. 12z GFS was absolutely nuts and moved timing ahead a bit. 7 of those 8 runs deliver an arctic blast and snow. GEM, EURO Op not there yet, but making some steps in the right direction. CMCE 500mb similar to GEFS. EPS improved. PNA looks excellent. EPO might flip to negative although we may not necessarily need it to tank. We just need patience. It's not the easiest thing to have sometimes. Cautiously optimistic.

 

00z GFS in 2 hours 50 minutes

00z ECMWF in 5 hours 5 minutes

[snow_wizard]

On the weeklies it appears early Feb might be some kind of a window for intense possibilities again.  At that point the ensemble mean reaches it's lowest readings for EPO, and the control utterly tanks on PNA.  At this point though it appears anywhere between Jan 10 and Feb 10 is in play for some goodies.

[snow_wizard]

Right now 8 out of the past 10 GFS Op runs have an excellent 500mb pattern. 12z GFS was absolutely nuts and moved timing ahead a bit. 7 of those 8 runs deliver an arctic blast and snow. GEM, EURO Op not there yet, but making some steps in the right direction. CMCE 500mb similar to GEFS. EPS improved. PNA looks excellent. EPO might flip to negative although we may not necessarily need it to tank. We just need patience. It's not the easiest thing to have sometimes. Cautiously optimistic.

 

00z GFS in 2 hours 50 minutes

00z ECMWF in 5 hours 5 minutes

 

I think with tanked PNA an EPO around zero would be fine.

[runninthruda206]

Right now 8 out of the past 10 GFS Op runs have an excellent 500mb pattern. 12z GFS was absolutely nuts and moved timing ahead a bit. 7 of those 8 runs deliver an arctic blast and snow. GEM, EURO Op not there yet, but making some steps in the right direction. CMCE 500mb similar to GEFS. EPS improved. PNA looks excellent. EPO might flip to negative although we may not necessarily need it to tank. We just need patience. It's not the easiest thing to have sometimes. Cautiously optimistic.

 

00z GFS in 2 hours 50 minutes

00z ECMWF in 5 hours 5 minutes

 

 

As someone who's new to all this but very much interested in learning to read models, thank you for explaining. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Would be insane if February delivered again. Or March. I have had 10"+ of snow the past 3 Marches. Actually...I have had 10"+ of snow in both the past 3 February AND Marches. Yet in 8 years I have only had 10"+ of snow in January twice. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

February has delivered the goods here:

 

2012: 16.8"

2013: 0

2014: 10.5"

2015: 0

2016: 0.5"

2017: 13.5"

2018: 18.3"

2019: 52.2"

 

And of course February 2011 probably scored 20-25" at my location. 

[Front Ranger]

Can we just hurry and get to February already?

[Kayla]

Looks like I picked the wrong January to join an outdoor naked badminton league...

 

You think you have it bad?? My fingernails have fallen off before the PV engulfs us all! 

[Deweydog]

Singles or doubles? Asking for an old fishing buddy at the NWS.

Mix.

 

I’m kinda freakin’. Shuttlecocks might shrink in what may be top tier cold.

[Gradient Keeper]

The $32 dollar question is does the GEM, EURO make a subtle move towards the GFS tonight or completely cave(at 500mb) with the pattern delivering at Day 8-10. I dunno! I literally have no idea. Stay tuned!

[The Swamp]

Can anyone look into the future and see if the models are full of 10-15 days out?

 

I need to buy new glow sticks at the dollar store for my snow monsters, should I be able to build them.

 

Unlike you greedy bastards, I only need an inch or two to be happy. Kind of like Dewey’s wife.