September 2023 Observations and Discussion

[james1976]

Cloudy, north breeze and mid 60s today. No complaints here! What a change 

[hawkstwelve]

Topped out at 73 today, first high in the 70s over the past 11 days. Very refreshing. 

Looking like we may have turned the corner with only a couple highs in 80s projected for the next 7-10 days. Hopefully the last of 100+ temps at the very least.

[hawkstwelve]

Sioux Falls is still running -5.36 for YTD precip. It would be really nice to get a couple decent soakings over the next month or two to help make up some of that lost ground before the soil starts to freeze up. Almost the entirety of the Midwest is running behind on soil moisture.

Unfortunately while things may cool down, it's looking pretty dry. Precip anomalies continue to be negative for a good section of the Midwest over the next 10 days, owing in part to a fairly weak STJ and the polar jet running into Canada. Need to get that STJ to crank up a bit and get some moisture going into the central CONUS.

[Tom]

Pretty cool lake enhanced CF came through a bit ago that brought some showery weather earlier this morning....you know it is Autumn when you start seeing these lake effect showers streaming off the lake.  I'm curious if we'll see any water spouts across the GL's next week as a pretty potent trough rotates through.  I know we'll see lake effect showers today and tomorrow over N IN.

 

[Tom]

I forgot to mention that on Labor Day, the NWS out in Salt Lake city reported their first snows of the season up near Bald mountain.  This region had a record snow year last season.  Did nature just give us a clue for this coming winter???  Ya buddy!

https://townlift.com/2023/09/snapped-first-snow-of-the-2023-2024-winter-season-in-utah/

 

[Tom]

@Niko, were these heavy rains by you out in Greece?

 

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 82/68. The official rain fall amount was 0.16” Here in MBY I recorded 0.32” of rain fall. The highest wind speed of 35 MPH was out of the SW. There was 25% of possible sunshine.  For today the average H/L is now down to 77/56 the record high of 96 was set in 1960 and the record low of 38 was set in 1986. The record rain fall of 1.64” fell in 1987. Last year the H/L was 79/56.

The week ahead looks to be more early fall like than what we have been seeing this weekend is summed up in todays NWS discussion  as -COLD, CLEAR AND MILD THIS WEEKEND--  After a brief warm up this weekend it will turn cooler again and highs will range from the 60’s today and tomorrow and then the mid to upper 70’s before falling back into the 60’s again. Lows will be in the 50’s to upper 40’s. 

A period of "don't have to" that is don't have to have the heat on and don't have to have the air on. Enjoy having the windows open.

[chescowxman]

One more day of 90+ temps across much of the county before rain chances increase with showers possible starting this evening through the weekend. Some models have well over an inch of needed rain by Monday morning. We have only seen one day with measurable rain in the last 12 days and that was only 0.09" on the 30th.

Records for today: High 93 (1954) / Low 37 (1924) / Rain 2.57" (2011)

[Andie]

Bit of a change ahead.  
Looking forward to not frying.  

[Phil]

I guess this is one way to knock the temperature down.

 

 

[chescowxman]

High Temps today here in NW Chesco - Ambient station made it to 89.7 - Davis VP2 hit 89.1 and the rooftop Tempest hit 90.5.

The heaviest of the evening storm passed just NW of East Nantmeal as we have received 0.19" so far

[james1976]

My weather station shows a high of 64 today. Currently 57. Yeah I'll take this! Some leaves have fallen as well but I know it's mainly from hot n dry conditions. Regardless....signs of Fall!

[OKwx2k4]

Glad to hear thunder and rainfall returning to my area tonight. 

Doing some record searches for fun I discovered that September has an incredible temperature range at Fayetteville Arkansas. 

The all-time high is 103 (tied on 3 other occasions), and the all-time low was 31. It has frosted three times in September since records began there in 1949. 

Makes June, July and August the only 3 months here which have not recorded frost or freeze. I don't believe we will see that this year, but it is interesting. 

Of the coldest Septembers on record, only 2009 at 15th place ever went on to produce a great winter. However of the memorable warmest and driest episodes in September history, 2000 being a prime example and 2013 as another, the winter that followed was epic. 

[Black Hole]

2 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Glad to hear thunder and rainfall returning to my area tonight. 

Doing some record searches for fun I discovered that September has an incredible temperature range at Fayetteville Arkansas. 

The all-time high is 103 (tied on 3 other occasions), and the all-time low was 31. It has frosted three times in September since records began there in 1949. 

Makes June, July and August the only 3 months here which have not recorded frost or freeze. I don't believe we will see that this year, but it is interesting. 

Of the coldest Septembers on record, only 2009 at 15th place ever went on to produce a great winter. However of the memorable warmest and driest episodes in September history, 2000 being a prime example and 2013 as another, the winter that followed was epic. 

So you are in Fayetteville? Lots of storm activity over there tonight. I'm on shift tonight and we've put out a number of SVR warnings west of there. 

[Andie]

They’re forecasting 107/108 today.  

Enough of this. Our power generation is stressed and for the past 2 weeks asking everyone to raise their thermostats.  
The mass exodus into Tx is taking its toll on power generation/high demand.  No doubt some are wondering why they chose to come here. 
Currently 81*,  DP 60.  
Humidity 46%

High today 107/108

[Tom]

When the lake is your "friend"...come back in the Winter months!  This is a prime time set up for lake effect rain and/or snow if it were cold enough.  Nature just teasing me on this cool and overcast morning (61F).  I'm definitely in Autumn mode now and next week looks even chillier with highs in the upper 60's.  I can already smell the bon fires burning!

 

[chescowxman]

We picked up 0.26" between both rounds of rain last night...much more fell to the west of Chesco. Showers and t-storm chances will continue through the weekend...not a washout but keep those umbrellas handy. We do need the rain. Yesterday should be the last time this year most spots in the county see a 90 degree reading. Here in East Nantmeal we failed to exceed 90 degrees for the 2nd straight summer. This is the 4th time in my 20 years of local observations in EN that we did not reach 90 even rounded in a summer.

Records for today: High 95 (1939) / Low 40 (1984) / Rain 5.36" (1987)

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 73/60 there was a reported 0.01” of rain fall. The sun was out 14% of the possible time. The highest wind speed was 14 MPH out of the NW.  At the current time it is cloudy and 59 here in MBY. For today the average H/L is 77/56. The record high of 95 was set in 1897, 1922 and 1960. The record low of 36 was set in 1951. The record rain fall amount of 2.27” fell in 1989.  Last year the H/L was 82/55.

[Clinton]

Some great fall like weather for me this weekend, now if only I could get some beneficial rain. Mid 70s showing up for next week!

[Madtown]

Chilling with clouds and 48 atm. 

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Madtown said:

Chilling with clouds and 48 atm. 

Had showers and 53 here in NEMI at my cousin's cottage.

[bud2380]

This would be very welcome around here.  This is for Sunday night into Monday AM.

 

[Andie]

Topping out at 108*
Humidity 21%
Felt like I was standing over a hot grill as I walked out to get the mail just now.  Just horrible.  Equaled by the glare and my headache. 

There is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms into the overnight across North Texas. Generally, after 10 p.m. thunderstorms will move into northeastern areas of North Texas from Oklahoma. Storms will continue until early Saturday morning.

Looking forward to High of 80* Tuesday with thunderstorms.  What a treat!  Let’s hope the back is broken on this summer heat.  

[Iceresistance]

Storms coming into DFW, but I bet they go poof when they get there

[Andie]

Actually it’s showing it will track over me.  They’ll fade in strength but hey! Beggars aren’t choosers!

[westMJim]

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 64/55. That high of 64 was the coolest high at Grand Rapids since a high of 64 on June 12th the last time the high was cooler than 64 was a 62 on May 17th There was a reported trace of rain fall yesterday. The official total for September is now 0.17” for the year GR is now at 26.59” that is below the average of  27.23” for a departure of -0.64” There were 5 HDD’s since July 1st there have been 19  that is a departure of -10. There were 0 CDD’s since January 1st  there have been  628 that is a departure of -55. So this year has had less energy use than average so far. It was a cloudy day yesterday with just 4% of possible sunshine that came late in the day. For today the average H/L is 77/56 the record high of 95 was set way back in 1897. The record  low of 37 was set in 1975. The record rain fall amount of 2.25” fell in 1920. Last year the H/L was 81/56.

From todays weather discussion from the NWS

 AS NOTED ALREADY, WEDNESDAY LOOKS QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW   60S; THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMUP INTO THE WEEKEND.   THURSDAY MORNING CURRENTLY FEATURES FORECAST LOWS IN THE LOWER TO   MID 40S, BUT AGREE WITH PREVIOUS REASONING THAT FROST IS NOT OUT OF   THE QUESTION IF WE EXPERIENCE MORE FAVORABLE TIMING WITH THE PASSAGE   OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS.  

[Tom]

12 hours ago, Andie said:

Topping out at 108*
Humidity 21%
Felt like I was standing over a hot grill as I walked out to get the mail just now.  Just horrible.  Equaled by the glare and my headache. 

There is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms into the overnight across North Texas. Generally, after 10 p.m. thunderstorms will move into northeastern areas of North Texas from Oklahoma. Storms will continue until early Saturday morning.

Looking forward to High of 80* Tuesday with thunderstorms.  What a treat!  Let’s hope the back is broken on this summer heat.  

I spoke to my cousin down in DFW and he told me that his pool water temp is a BALMY 91F!  I asked him, how the heck does that cool you off?  I would toss a massive ice cube in the pool and just lay on top of it...LOL, it's a testament as to how Hot its been for our Texans down south.  Enjoy the pattern change next week!

[Tom]

2 hours ago, westMJim said:

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 64/55. That high of 64 was the coolest high at Grand Rapids since a high of 64 on June 12th the last time the high was cooler than 64 was a 62 on May 17th There was a reported trace of rain fall yesterday. The official total for September is now 0.17” for the year GR is now at 26.59” that is below the average of  27.23” for a departure of -0.64” There were 5 HDD’s since July 1st there have been 19  that is a departure of -10. There were 0 CDD’s since January 1st  there have been  628 that is a departure of -55. So this year has had less energy use than average so far. It was a cloudy day yesterday with just 4% of possible sunshine that came late in the day. For today the average H/L is 77/56 the record high of 95 was set way back in 1897. The record  low of 37 was set in 1975. The record rain fall amount of 2.25” fell in 1920. Last year the H/L was 81/56.

From todays weather discussion from the NWS

 AS NOTED ALREADY, WEDNESDAY LOOKS QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW   60S; THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMUP INTO THE WEEKEND.   THURSDAY MORNING CURRENTLY FEATURES FORECAST LOWS IN THE LOWER TO   MID 40S, BUT AGREE WITH PREVIOUS REASONING THAT FROST IS NOT OUT OF   THE QUESTION IF WE EXPERIENCE MORE FAVORABLE TIMING WITH THE PASSAGE   OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS.  

Frosty nights next week?  I think the Northwoods are in a prime location as a chilly Canadian HP tracks overhead.  It's going to get real nice and chilly mid next week.  40's are not out of the question in the western burbs over here.

Meantime, this morning my temp dropped to a comfy 55F and I see there are plenty of 50's and 40's across the Sub this morning.  @Clinton is probably enjoying this morning!  Autumn has arrived and it appears to be sticking around for quite a while around these parts.  "Trough after Trough" is likely to rotate through the GL's/MW region through mid month.  

The 0z Euro still looking good for a nice soaking across the I-80 corridor...I feel like we are tracking a west/east ribbon of SNOW...just using my imagination this morning!  

 

 

[Clinton]

33 minutes ago, Tom said:

Frosty nights next week?  I think the Northwoods are in a prime location as a chilly Canadian HP tracks overhead.  It's going to get real nice and chilly mid next week.  40's are not out of the question in the western burbs over here.

Meantime, this morning my temp dropped to a comfy 55F and I see there are plenty of 50's and 40's across the Sub this morning.  @Clinton is probably enjoying this morning!  Autumn has arrived and it appears to be sticking around for quite a while around these parts.  "Trough after Trough" is likely to rotate through the GL's/MW region through mid month.  

The 0z Euro still looking good for a nice soaking across the I-80 corridor...I feel like we are tracking a west/east ribbon of SNOW...just using my imagination this morning!  

 

 

We are opening up windows this morning and letting the nice cool country air pull through the house.  I absolutely love this time of year.  We have got to get some rain soon, ponds are starting to dry up and I'm very concerned about the water situation or lack of on the farm.

[Tom]

9 minutes ago, Clinton said:

We are opening up windows this morning and letting the nice cool country air pull through the house.  I absolutely love this time of year.  We have got to get some rain soon, ponds are starting to dry up and I'm very concerned about the water situation or lack of on the farm.

I love the smell of that country air!  Gosh, it brings me great memories of road trips when I was a kid and driving through the rolling hills and enjoying the smells in the early morning hours.  Enjoy it!  As for the rain, you may want to do a rain dance for Mother Nature!  

[OKwx2k4]

I'm sitting at a nice cool 60 degrees this morning. 

Fall is officially here in green country. I couldn't be happier. Going to be a beautiful season. 

[CentralNebWeather]

How’s this for a forecast?  Beautiful. 

[Andie]

10 hours ago, Tom said:

I spoke to my cousin down in DFW and he told me that his pool water temp is a BALMY 91F!  I asked him, how the heck does that cool you off?  I would toss a massive ice cube in the pool and just lay on top of it...LOL, it's a testament as to how Hot its been for our Texans down south.  Enjoy the pattern change next week!

No one gets in the pool unfortunately.  
Just too hot.  
We received a heavy storm last night. Just buckets for an extended time.   
I don’t have a rain total right now as my gauge cracked from the heat. 
But it was no small rain, quite heavy for 30 mins. and so very welcomed. Lost some trees on the golf course from high winds.  

I’m going guesstimate that we received between .50 inches +.
Currently 78.  On the way to 98. 
Edit -  At 2pm - 92*

[chescowxman]

In East Nantmeal we picked up 0.08" of rain so far since last night. It appears rain chances will be ramping up across the County later today through Sunday night. We do need the rain as we are now over 4 inches below our normal year to date rainfall through yesterday.

Records for today: High 94 (1959) / Low 38 (1975) / Rain 2.15" (1972)

[Niko]

On 9/7/2023 at 7:55 AM, Tom said:

@Niko, were these heavy rains by you out in Greece?

 

I gotta tell ya....it was an extremely hot summer in Greece and yes, flooded rains soaked almost everyone (Record rainfall was recorded), including my place in Andros Island. Luckily no damage, just flooded roads. Also, it was definitely needed to at least wipe out any future fires. Temps hit the mid to upper 110's (all time record highs in spots) and lows dropped in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Luckily, there is no humidity there, but still, it can get darn HOT!!!

[Niko]

Next week (mid week period) comes a real cooldown w potential high in the upper 50s to near 60F and lows in the lower to mid 40s. Hello Autumn!! 

[Andie]

We’re feeling’ the love down here. 
The change is on our doorstep and most welcome…”come on in!”

 

[Andie]

We had a very close call this Thursday/Fri

Texas narrowly avoided rolling blackouts on Wednesday and Thursday, according to multiple reports.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the state’s grid operator, declared a “stage 2” emergency on Wednesday, which is one level below declaring a need for rolling blackouts, according to The Wall Street Journal. Then, on Thursday, the Department of Energy (DOE) declared a state of energy emergency for ERCOT as sustained high temperatures kept demand high and pushed the grid dangerously close to rolling blackouts for a second consecutive night.

“At one point around 7:30 p.m. CT Wednesday, ERCOT data showed just more than 1,000 MW of available dispatchable capacity,” David Blackmon, a 40-year veteran of the oil and gas business who now writes and consults on energy, told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “Had a single high-capacity natural gas or coal plant experienced a failure during that time, blackouts would have resulted.”
____________________

I just hate this summer.

[Black Hole]

Ready to move on! What a terrific forecast we have coming up and such a change from what we've been seeing. 

[Hawkeye]

The Euro continues its flopping back and forth with the Monday morning wave of rain.  The latest run is back to being bullish, showing a swath of 1+" through my area.  A few others models have jumped on board, too.