November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[ShawniganLake]

Feeling some 2002-03 vibes from the weather so far this season.    

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Feeling some 2002-03 vibes from the weather so far this season.    

Oddly enough that year hasn't come up in the CPC analogs a single time this season.  One thing that has been much different is WAY less east wind here.  This autumn has been northerly a large percentage of the time which is a sure sign the placement of the blocking ridges has been different.  I'm betting this season will be more dynamic than that one.

[snow_wizard]

Down to 28 here now.

[Gradient Keeper]

28.0

[Phil]

6 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Apart from dangerous weather, inversions are the worst.  Who cares about fake cold?  If it's not snowing or stormy, at least be sunny.   We live in a beautiful part of the world, I'd like to see it instead of fog.  

Give me a foggy inversion over a warm sunny day anytime. A sunny day is as ordinary as waking up or breathing.

Spring months are the exception though (IMO). I love sunny wx in April/May when there’s no humidity yet.

[Phil]

+dAAMt upcoming (mostly EA source) w/ momentum cleanly fluxed thru STJ. Get ready Lake Tahoe people.  

[Phil]

6 hours ago, AbbyJr said:

Thanks Phil. The -NOA clearly worked out in 1968/69. But there was also an unusually early SSW event that winter, which as you said, likely was a significant aid in driving the -PNA pattern. The thing about the 1968/69 winter that I find so interesting is just how long the patten was locked in. The initial blast of arctic air came at the end of December followed by a brief warmup in early January. But by mid January, the region was hit with reload after reload of arctic air. Looking at the 500mb reanalysis, it looked like one of the most stable La Niña patterns I've ever seen. That -PNA/-NAO was almost a permanent feature for most of January that year and there was very little shift in the trajectory of the blocking pattern as the ridge bridge remained in place with the polar low settled in over the PNW. It was one of the longest arctic outbreaks in the region. I'm just curious if you have any idea what caused the pattern to lock in for so long? Sure would be epic to see a repeat but unforunately, I'm not expecting to see one anytime soon. The closest we have come were those epic GFS runs back in January 2020. They ended up being an extreme outlier that did not verify, but for nearly a week, they were constantly showing a 1969 pattern. I remember that model ride just hoping the GFS would be right for once and of course it was out to lunch. Darn.

I suppose terms like “El Niño pattern” are used too broadly and frequently, since there can be significant structural differences between El Niño events, and because there technically isn’t any one “El Niño pattern” but rather a continuum of patterns that may arise from either ENSO phase.

Still, to me 68/69 just looks like a very blocked up El Niño. Clear enhancement of the STJ, and the -PNA is to be expected given massive -NAO regime (they tend to co-exist and constructively interfere). 

6 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

True, but the mechanisms that drive central Canadian torching are often the same kind of zonal/Pac Jet fueled patterns that won't be delivering much arctic air south of the border anyways. Obviously the southern tier can still clean up in the absolute right circumstances, like January-February 2010.

True. Though I wouldn’t say it has to be a “zonal” pattern, per se. Large blocking highs in central/NE-Canada with the TPV/deep arctic airmass in Siberia is pretty common w/ El Niño, and though it’s not an “arctic” pattern for the lower-48, it’s often quite wintry for most areas south of 40-45N due to the suppressed storm track and lack of warm advection.

Obviously in far northern areas this generally isn’t the case.

5 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I have yet to see any signs of a strong PJ this winter.

Northern jet isn’t strong, correct. But the STJ is.

[Ray]

Good morning.  Down to 27 so far.  Should be a nice day ahead.

[Doinko]

No freeze at home, looks like a low of 33 and up to 39 now.

Looks like Corvallis and Hillsboro got into the 20s

[Chewbacca Defense]

21 hours ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Ok, I want to ask everyone, what is a good weather station to buy because I'm thinking of buying one. Thanks 

Davis Instruments if you have $1,000 to spend.  Michael Snyder (works for Alaska Airlines and does PNW weather videos on YT) likes the Tempest weather station, and said it's reporting is on par with his Davis Instruments unit.  I have an Ambient Weather Station that I like (I have the WS-2000) and has been reliable for me.  I have had bad luck with Accurite Stations and cannot recommend them, but I think others have had better luck.

 

I've thought about going with a Tempest for my next one as it really doesn't require any maintenance.  The downside is that I like having a dedicated display in my house, and Tempest does not offer that.  I did a little google research and it looks like you can set up a dedicated display with a raspberry pi & screen.

[the_convergence_zone]

33.6 for me, coldest of the fall.

It might have been the first official freeze at Sea-Tac, we’ll see in a few hours. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

28.4˚F.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

18 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

33.6 for me, coldest of the fall.

It might have been the first official freeze at Sea-Tac, we’ll see in a few hours. 

Sort of hard to believe; think I'm on my 10th freeze for the season this morning.

You must live in a locale with excellent cold air drainage.

[Skagit Weather]

20 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

33.6 for me, coldest of the fall.

It might have been the first official freeze at Sea-Tac, we’ll see in a few hours. 

SEA hit 32F on 10/29 I believe.

[Ken in Wood Village]

35 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Davis Instruments if you have $1,000 to spend.  Michael Snyder (works for Alaska Airlines and does PNW weather videos on YT) likes the Tempest weather station, and said it's reporting is on par with his Davis Instruments unit.  I have an Ambient Weather Station that I like (I have the WS-2000) and has been reliable for me.  I have had bad luck with Accurite Stations and cannot recommend them, but I think others have had better luck.

 

I've thought about going with a Tempest for my next one as it really doesn't require any maintenance.  The downside is that I like having a dedicated display in my house, and Tempest does not offer that.  I did a little google research and it looks like you can set up a dedicated display with a raspberry pi & screen.

I did buy the Tempest weather station. It's supposed to be delivered today. I bought it on Amazon. I know I won't have a display but I think using the app on my phone will be ok with me. 

Thanks for your input

[Skagit Weather]

Got down to 26.9F last night for the coldest temperature of the season. Looks like Arlington hit 21F while OLM only managed 25F. It's been behaving better since it tried to drop into the teens in October.

[the_convergence_zone]

12 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

SEA hit 32F on 10/29 I believe.

Oh wow, I missed that one. 

[the_convergence_zone]

14 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Sort of hard to believe; think I'm on my 10th freeze for the season this morning.

You must live in a locale with excellent cold air drainage.

Side of a slope and close to the water and within the middle of Seattle’s urban heat dome! 

[MossMan]

Lovely chilly morning! 

[TacomaWx]

Freeze #8 this morning here at 29 degrees. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, Doinko said:

No freeze at home, looks like a low of 33 and up to 39 now.

Looks like Corvallis and Hillsboro got into the 20s

SLE the 28 on the 5 min obs. 

Edited November 24, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Chilly morning, but no frost here by the Eugene airport. 

[Winterdog]

Currently 25.5 after a low of 24.9.  Lots of sparkling trees and crunchy grass.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Winterdog said:

Currently 25.5 after a low of 24.9.  Lots of sparkling trees and crunchy grass.

I love your view. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Have a feeling the pattern change may get delayed a bit. 

[FroYoBro]

Beautiful frozen morning here. Got down to 29 degrees and we have full sunshine now.

[LowerGarfield]

31F now. It was down to 27F when I got up at 8:30 so I wonder what we bottomed out at. A hard freeze but not our first of the season.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Bottomed out at a chilly, frosty 28 degrees this morning. Had some decent freezing fog form earlier that is now burning off slowly. Everything out of direct sun is still frosty out there, current temp is 34.

Ended up with a 51/35 day yesterday. Improved on the morning low by three degrees before midnight.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Low clouds have developed in the south valley. Cold day. 

[ShawniganLake]

2 hours ago, the_convergence_zone said:

33.6 for me, coldest of the fall.

It might have been the first official freeze at Sea-Tac, we’ll see in a few hours. 

Further north, Victoria Gonzales has not recorded a freeze yet either.  Their low for the season is 36F from back in late October. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Further north, Victoria Gonzales has not recorded a freeze yet either.  Their low for the season is 36F from back in late October. 

That happened here 3 years ago. Though the temp was colder. Seems that in our new climate regime that it will become more common.

[Deweydog]

10 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Bottomed out at a chilly, frosty 28 degrees this morning. Had some decent freezing fog form earlier that is now burning off slowly. Everything out of direct sun is still frosty out there, current temp is 34.

Ended up with a 51/35 day yesterday. Improved on the morning low by three degrees before midnight.

VERY similar conditions here this morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Where the magic happens! EUG! As you can see, no UHI here. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Low of 27. Pond starting to freeze

[snow_wizard]

Gorgeous morning out there.  It dropped to 26 and there is still heavy frost outside.

[snow_wizard]

3 hours ago, Doinko said:

No freeze at home, looks like a low of 33 and up to 39 now.

Looks like Corvallis and Hillsboro got into the 20s

You must live in one of those pesky warm spots.

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Low of 27. Pond starting to freeze

I was thinking there could be considerable freezing of ponds and very small lakes over the next week.  Some places will be freezing for about 14 to 16 (maybe as many as 18) hours of each day.

[Phishy Wx]

got down to 21

 

might get in the teens tonight

 

currently 36

[Phishy Wx]

it might be coming....

[ShawniganLake]

Some hints of a possible Pineapple Express type pattern setting up later in week 2.  As the trough digs back to the west and taps into what looks to be a pretty moist airmass back near Hawaii.