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January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

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Posted by TT-SEA,

Its definitely coming.  
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Posted by iFred,

Still all playing out like '19, '20, and '21. Try a mental exercise, close your eyes. Think of cold, snow, a wintery landscape. Think of the cityscapes of Vancouver, Seattle, Portland, and Eugene, and picture them with just globs of snow heaped over them. Keep your eyes closed and imagine maps filled with those pepto pinks and purples. Imagine that arctic air spilling over Vancouver Island and making its way back to Washington and Oregon. Imagine regional blizzard warnings and snow cov

Do this.

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Posted by iFred,

Yeah, the delta on Monday will be telling with Graphcast and Spire. People forget (or don't know) that both models only work off of initialization data and then use various degrees of image based machine learning at very high terrain definitions. Its effectively taking those analog lists to the next level. This means though that there is no real condition modeling taking place, but rather a "I think this feature will develop here because it typically does when these patterns at these levels are
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Posted by Meatyorologist,

Transferring to Part II at 5pm in ~10mins!

Important Note!

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Front Ranger Grand Master

Front Ranger

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The gfs just goes off the rails with any sort of consistent details at all. We all love to watch it but it's really one of the worst global models out there.

Just don't say this when it shows something epic!

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Corncob
Corncob

Fine. I’ve been lurking here for years. I live in Shoreline and do hyperlocal forecasting for friends between the ship canal and Everett since about 2018. I also work with mutual aid groups to help ho

iFred
iFred

Last Warning Any political, political-adjacent, it-isn’t-political-when-I-know-I’m-on-the-right-side-of-history, or this-guy-was-a-fascist-neo-liberal-weak-will-reactionary-and-so-it-was-ok-for-m

iFred
iFred

Ok, while the Euro is running, I'd like everyone to read the following and then close their eyes and think hard about it. I know its weird hocus pocus stuff for some, but there is some science behind

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LowerGarfield Grand Master

LowerGarfield

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

The Year Without A Santa Claus Sun GIF by filmeditor

1120246.png

That is brutal!

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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Meatyorologist Grand Master

Meatyorologist

Posted
Posted

GEFS is better

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Cold Snap Grand Master

Cold Snap

Posted
Posted

Thankfully the GEFS looks better. The operational is always inconsistent especially after day 7.

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 51

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Doinko said:

What do you think about the coming pattern? I enjoy hearing your thoughts

I promised not to give my thoughts after being threatened with a ban last week. :( 

1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

More gfs garbage. Just take away a low around hr 180 like nothing lol.  Gem is more consistent than this embarrassing model. 

That’s why I call it goofus.

45 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

its trash, they tried to fix it a couple years back and somehow made it worse

This this this this this 

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
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selkirks Community Regular

selkirks

Posted
Posted

┏┓ 
┃┃╱╲ in
┃╱╱╲╲ this
╱╱╭╮╲╲house
▔▏┗┛▕▔ we
╱▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔╲ 
value ensembles over
operational models for
long-range forecasts
╱╱┏┳┓╭╮┏┳┓ ╲╲ 
▔▏┗┻┛┃┃┗┻┛▕▔

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Port Angeles Foothiller Veteran

Port Angeles Foothiller

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Phil said:

I promised not to give my thoughts after being threatened with a ban last week. :( 

That’s why I call it goofus.

This this this this this 

Ain’t no one banning you. 

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PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events)

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Meatyorologist Grand Master

Meatyorologist

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, selkirks said:

┏┓ 
┃┃╱╲ in
┃╱╱╲╲ this
╱╱╭╮╲╲house
▔▏┗┛▕▔ we
╱▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔╲ 
value ensembles over
operational models for
long-range forecasts
╱╱┏┳┓╭╮┏┳┓ ╲╲ 
▔▏┗┻┛┃┃┗┻┛▕▔

only if the ensembles are better

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Meatyorologist Grand Master

Meatyorologist

Posted
Posted

Y'all are a bunch of prudes. I leave printed screengrabs of the GFS tacked to my calendar on the wall. That way no one forgets when it's coming.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Dave Veteran

Dave

Posted
Posted

I honestly don't think it can get foggier than it is right now. 40 degrees out and I can barely see trees that are 100 yards away. I suppose if we somehow got 60 degree fog with a 60 degree dp, the visibility might be less. Oh well. It is what it is. Let's get that mountain snow.

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HuskyMaestro Mentor

HuskyMaestro

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, SeanNyberg said:

That game. WOW 

Now we just need some snow and 2024 is looking pretty good

I can’t stand these games… taking off 5 years of my life every time 😂🥳🐺 

Kraken winning the Winter Classic too has made this an awesome day. Locking in some pepto maps would make it even better. 

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𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮𝘴,

𝘐 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘯.

𝘗𝘶𝘺𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘱.

Reddit: HotlineMaestro

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Dave Veteran

Dave

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Haha, right on. Never heard of that website before. image.gif

It's reliable about 99% of the time. Not sure how it exists. Lol. But I'll use it until it quits working.

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Cold Snap Grand Master

Cold Snap

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

A step back on the GEFS snow ensembles 

Hoping for some improvement on the Euro/EPS.

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 51

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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SpaceRace22 Mentor

SpaceRace22

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

only if the ensembles are better

Whatever model has the best solution at any given point is the superior model. That's why I've always said that GEFS member #14 specifically is far superior to any other deterministic output of any model. 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Coldest GEFS run yet on the second trough with a mean of -6.5 on the 850s.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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SpaceRace22 Mentor

SpaceRace22

Posted
Posted

Sorry if this was already mentioned, but just wanted to throw out there that our beloved Spire is looking probably the best of any model at Day 10 right now. Just like I've *always* said, the Spire is far superior to any other model and should be weighted above all else:

spire-forecast-basic-namer-t850-4974400(1).thumb.png.37bdba0ce32c0d98d167d9dde3548b5e.pngspire-forecast-basic-namer-z500_anom-4974400.thumb.png.e1be904516dc93389551d3df214097c5.png

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