January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[MossMan]

Jesus! All I did was get the kids ready for bed lol! 

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, iFred said:

We lost the GFS, Euro, and either the UK or GEM for about two days with about a week to go for February 2019.

Yup, everything can be given back as quickly as it was taken away especially this far out. 

[Winterdog]

 

9 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

It usually scores 2nd right behind the EURO. GEM is 3rd and the GooFuS is 4th.

 

That is for only one month, October to November 2022.  All the other models probably had Covid and didn't perform up to standards.

[RentonHill]

Seems like GFS/GEFS is showing what the EPS had been showing a few days ago and has slowly trended away from. Maybe the GEFS really is just that far behind

[GHweatherChris]

Alright, everyone grab a beer, smoke a bowl or do whatever you would normally do on a 60 degree evening in September to relax.  Then come back for the Euro, no need to lament over the GFS, it's in the past for now.  I have to go to bed unfortunately, but might refresh a couple times during the Euro just cuz..... weiners unite!!

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, Mercurial said:

Surely medium range models are more accurate now than in 2011.  

With your flatter or zonal type patterns, probably.

With your chaotic meridional stuff like this? Not by much, if at all.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

FWIW the 00z UKMET is a massive improvement over the crap 12z run from earlier today

12z

00z

 

Final frame of tonight's run

Thursday evening it has -13c 850s into SEA and -11c over PDX

 

For sure! Big step in the right direction!

[The Blob]

My depression can't handle these runs flip flopping.

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

What a massive step back on the GEFS

GEFS is often under-dispersed, though.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Alright, everyone grab a beer, smoke a bowl or do whatever you would normally do on a 60 degree evening in September to relax.  Then come back for the Euro, no need to lament over the GFS, it's in the past for now.  I have to go to bed unfortunately, but might refresh a couple times during the Euro just cuz..... weiners unite!!

A good ECMWF run makes all of this discussion completely irrelevant.  

[Christensen87]

CFS is still a disaster. I just can’t get fully onboard yet. 

[BLI snowman]

14 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Now I'm curious what's the back story behind dabears

One of a couple of The Weather Forums' own specialty trademark socks. The other one also made an appearance earlier this evening.

Feels like old times....

[Mid Valley Duck]

Here are the most recent verification scores at day 6

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

A good ECMWF run makes all of this discussion completely irrelevant.  

It's not gonna be a good run, I am out!!

[Jbolin]

49 mins until all hope is lost.

 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Down to 27.4, more than cold enough for the snow on its way! Can't wait to wake up to atleast a few inches tommorow!

[AbbyJr]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

GEFS is often under-dispersed, though.

What do you mean by under-dispersed?

[JW8]

Still a number of very cold members

[Kolk1604]

GEPS to the resuce 

[Front Ranger]

Apparently the CFS (China Forecasting System) is looking MUCH IMPROVED.

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Here are the most recent verification scores at day 6

Wow, UKMET is actually near the top. Could you post the link for this chart?

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

CFS is still a disaster. I just can’t get fully onboard yet. 

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Apparently the CFS (China Forecasting System) is looking MUCH IMPROVED.

[MikeInEverett]

CFS is rock solid

[DRG]

12 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

January 2011 busted within 48 hours, didn’t it? Now that was a bust!

It’s not even 120 hours out yet. We just don’t get the sort of great January busts they had in the good old days.

January sucks these days.

I remember watching that unfold.  We were driving from PDX to Whistler on the front end of that "event".  Went from, "omg this is going to be the absolute best/worst drive ever!", to all rain. The entire trip and even the lower part of Whistler itself was F-in rain.  Boo. 

[SpaceRace22]

9 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Now I'm curious what's the back story behind dabears

He was some kid who was a regular on here like 15+ years ago and eventually got banned, partially for being a legitimate a**, and partially because he just had a sense of humor that was well intentioned but conveyed very poorly over text and got misinterpreted. He mainly just attacked Phil though, which is probably why he frequently accuses people of being dabears, lol. After he got banned, he pretty much just lurked at times and maybe had a brief account or two since then, but never really came back to any significant degree. Every now and then though some random person that isn't dabears will get incorrectly accused of being him.

A couple times there's been some complete psychopaths that were falsely attributed to dabears, so this forum has built up kind of a wacky cartoon villain image of him based on their mistaken belief that some of the more extreme lunatics that have made the rounds through here were the same guy. Their writing style has always been completely different, but usually any time some unknown user is perceived as being rude on here, there's an assumption that it's another of dabears' accounts. Great lore, really. The Ghost of Dabears has always been my favorite campfire story.

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Wow, UKMET is actually near the top. Could you post the link for this chart?

I think it largely gets ignored because it doesn't have as many pretty maps on most sites, and it doesn't go out as far.

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

He was some kid who was a regular on here like 15+ years ago and eventually got banned, partially for being a legitimate a**, and partially because he just had a sense of humor that was well intentioned but conveyed very poorly over text and got misinterpreted. He mainly just attacked Phil though, which is probably why he frequently accuses people of being dabears, lol. After he got banned, he pretty much just lurked at times and maybe had a brief account or two since then, but never really came back to any significant degree. Every now and then though some random person that isn't dabears will get incorrectly accused of being him.

A couple times there's been some complete psychopaths that were falsely attributed to dabears, so this forum has built up kind of a wacky cartoon villain image of him based on their mistaken belief that some of the more extreme lunatics that have made the rounds through here were the same guy. Their writing style has always been completely different, but usually any time some unknown user is perceived as being rude on here, there's an assumption that it's another of dabears' accounts. Great lore, really. The Ghost of Dabears has always been my favorite campfire story.

Are you dabears?

[SpaceRace22]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Are you dabears?

huh?

[TT-SEA]

GEM ensemble is better than the GEFS now.   And does not agree with its operational run.  I think the GEM solution with that huge low backing up and then parking itself north of the border seems pretty unlikely.   Its just a strange evolution.  

[SeanNyberg]

The fact the GFS was SOOOO bad, showing features that were never hinted or suggested previously, makes it easier to ignore.

Then again, outliers can turn into the first run of a major change.

GFS will need an entire day or two to see if a fly got in the ointment or if the model is surprisingly prophetic. 

[Timmy]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Are you dabears?

That’s what I was thinking 

[FroYoBro]

1 minute ago, SpaceRace22 said:

huh?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

8 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Here are the most recent verification scores at day 6

Oh wow has the GFS fallen behind. Almost close to the IMD (India) now.  

[RentonHill]

Where’s Link. Lets get everyone back in here 

[snow_wizard]

Still plenty of really cold members on the ensemble.

[TacomaWx]

How the models got us feeling right now 

 

[Parrot]

6 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

...showing features that were never hinted or suggested previously...

Ridge depletion has been the trend all day

[thisisacreativename]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

How the models got us feeling right now 

 

oh god not that movie

[Slushy Inch]

16 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Seems like GFS/GEFS is showing what the EPS had been showing a few days ago and has slowly trended away from. Maybe the GEFS really is just that far behind

Quite possibly given how good this mornings eps was. It actually trended better. So many cold members

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

The fact the GFS was SOOOO bad, showing features that were never hinted or suggested previously, makes it easier to ignore.

Then again, outliers can turn into the first run of a major change.

GFS will need an entire day or two to see if a fly got in the ointment or if the model is surprisingly prophetic. 

Indeed.  Reminds me of how the GEM came out of left field last night.  This pattern has a lot of moving parts and one little mistake early can spiral out of control.