January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

If it happens at all.   We are nowhere close to model consensus yet.  

We still have a shot at epic.  I think at worse it still gets notably cold for a few days.

[Doinko]

Very cold temps with about a foot of snow on the ground in Eugene/Springfield

 

 

[lowlandsnow]

3 inches at 17 degrees crazy

[SouthHillFrosty]

[ShawniganLake]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Clipper snow next Sunday.

Like the gem had.  

[TT-SEA]

This is snow with temps in the teens in Seattle.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Just now, Doinko said:

Very cold temps with about a foot of snow on the ground in Eugene/Springfield

 

 

@TigerWoodsLibido gets pounded 

[ShawniganLake]

Fraser outflow is ripping by Friday. Single digit temps and windchills below -10F in Whatcom county

[Frontal Snowsquall]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty colors are back!

The King EURO has held serve!

[selkirks]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Oregon is in sweet spot next Saturday with cold air to the north and moisture to the south. 

Good for Bachelor, Hoodoo, and Willamette Pass.

[TT-SEA]

The 12Z ECMWF and 12Z GEM are actually quite close next weekend.   

Rile of thumb applies... ECMWF generally follows the GEM.  

[snow_wizard]

Snow going into the cold needs some work, but this is far from decided yet.

[westcoastexpat]

12Z GEM operational run wants to stay in the deep freeze

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

3 inches at 17 degrees crazy

Warm nose for Andrew, ouch.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

3 inches at 17 degrees crazy

That would be a very nice event.  Total fluff.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is also similar to its 12Z run yesterday.

For whatever reason... in these model battel situations I have noticed the 12Z and 00Z runs of the ECMWF tend to have their own trends.   00Z run will be interesting!  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, westcoastexpat said:

12Z GEM operational run wants to stay in the deep freeze

I'd like to see more support, average is way up there.

[Deweydog]

All this with heights over AK never much breeching 550dm.

[Winterdog]

This is looking so good I think we might have a chance at another meltdown!

[Phishy Wx]

21 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Terrible run for sure. It’s over 100%

donzo

[snow_wizard]

Noice run!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Need to see EPS 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

All this with heights over AK never much breeching 550dm.

The tie in to the NAO block is everything on this.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12z EURO Day 9. Still in the freezer.

[Winterdog]

33 below in Trail BC.  This is as cold a run as any we've seen.

[Deweydog]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The tie in to the NAO block is everything on this.

INFILL WE TRUST

[snow_wizard]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Need to see EPS 

The GEFS had a fair number of cold ensemble members.  The EPS should be decent.

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The tie in to the NAO block is everything on this.

There isn't even much NAO blocking in North America when this gets set into motion. It's a pretty weird pattern progression, tough to find any matching analogs.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It blows my mind we have to go through this crap every time. But it's been a minute since we had a complete rug pull. Still feeling good about this.

[westcoastexpat]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GEFS had a fair number of cold ensemble members.  The EPS should be decent.

12Z GEFS members 

[SouthHillFrosty]

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It blows my mind we have to go through this crap every time. But it's been a minute since we had a complete rug pull. Still feeling good about this.

I agree it sucks. However, we just did have a rug pull in 2020 not too long ago. 

[SeanNyberg]

Don’t love the delay on the Euro. It might not mean anything, but I’ve seen delays then into delays turn into delays turn into bust.

[TT-SEA]

More interesting notes... the 500mb pattern on 12Z ECMWF by day 10 looks very similar to its 00Z run at the same time.

But the arctic air was much farther east on the 00Z run.   And yet that even that didn't matter because the 00Z run showed snow and temps in the 20s at the end.   

In other words... its coming.  

[snow_wizard]

Graph Cast is rock steady.  It hasn't blinked once.  -18 850s for Seattle.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

42.6 IN BEND?! that's ATLEAST 5' for me if that verifies! Sign me up!,

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

There isn't even much NAO blocking in North America when this gets set into motion. It's a pretty weird pattern progression, tough to find any matching analogs.

It's that positive height anom over the Arctic ocean that does it.

[lowlandsnow]

A nice nationwide event

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I agree it sucks. However, we just did have a rug pull in 2020 not too long ago. 

Did we have massive runs like we've had with this one?

[TacomaWx]

All this is saying is that we’re still alive in the game at this point…could go either way. Normally though it would be the euro being the negative Nancy.