January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Cold Snap said:

I’m also 23. It seems like there’s a decent amount of people around our age on this forum.

I assume we all remember 2008, how about Hanukkah eve storm?

[awright-31]

Just now, Cold Snap said:

I’m also 23. It seems like there’s a decent amount of people around our age on this forum.

I'm 22 and have been lurking since my senior year of high school (2019 event) and posting occasionally since I was around 20.
I will say I've learned 1000% more than the information I've been able to provide but that's what is so great about this place.

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Cliff Mass has a new blog out saying a significant event this week is “doubtful”

People here were doubting it this morning 

[the_convergence_zone]

20 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

I generally like the NWS attempts to communicate uncertainty, but in my opinion this is kind of ridiculous and perhaps one of the worst ones I've seen if you're considering the audience is the general public. One reason is simply design complaints. You can barely read the temperatures at the bottom. I have good eyes and I had to get out my magnifying glass. It's like when the graph was created they weren't sure how to change the font size of the x/y labels.

Also, this is incredibly confusing. I have been following weather for decades and the run-up to this storm for days and it took me a minute to understand what this was implying. I mean it looks like they took all the minimum values from the ensembles (I don't know if it's GFS, NBM, Euro, or a combination) on Friday morning (1/12) at 12z and put them into buckets. It looks to me that based on the model they're using there's a 20% chance for the low temperature to be in the single digits or below and a 20% chance for it to be above 35F, but I can guarantee most people are not going to take that information from this. As a weather nerd, I think it does a decent job showing the separation between the warm ensembles and cold ensembles, but there's no additional discussion about that to give context to people not heavily invested in it.

Finally, this is for a single location (I imagine SEA), one of the warmest in the entire state during Arctic outbreaks. But most people who are going to see this have no idea about that. Maps are much better to convey this sort of temperature information and are a more standard method because they address regional climate differences. If they wanted to focus specifically on Seattle they could chose a much better method than this histogram.

My understanding is there are accepted graphic templates that are handed down from on high (changing each year) to each NWS forecast office and the meteorologists in each office can decide which ones to use to communicate forecasts with the general public. I'm pretty sure NWS Seattle is not responsible for the design of the graphic, but it's a questionable choice to distribute.

I could be wrong about this, but I think Courtney Carpenter was the genius behind NWS Seattle’s excellent graphics a few years ago. She’s now at the Sacramento office. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Always impressive to me how much cooler the east side is. I need to find a way to get back over there.

Opposite is usually true in the summer though!  

[Mercurial]

12 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

Unpopular opinion but this looks like a very realistic map in accordance with local microclimates and such out here.... I suspect the coldest air will penetrate a bit further south than depicted though.  It usually makes it down to Yellowstone eventually.

[Cold Snap]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

I assume we all remember 2008, how about Hanukkah eve storm?

I remember that one pretty well. I remember looking out west I could see so many transformers blowing up. I also remember during the Jan 2019 windstorm there were transformers blowing up as well. Surprisingly didn’t lose power during the Jan 2019 one. I think the part of Duvall that’s on the other power grid did. Lost power for a week from the Hanukkah eve one.

[thisisacreativename]

18 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

At least you have a degree! I'm 22, 2/3rd of my undergrad creds done, currently taking a break from school to figure my mind out and build some funds for when I hopefully transfer to UW. All the cool stuff I've done I did for my senior project, save for the UW convention, which Anthony invited me to after I got out of HS.

UW is a great school, you'll definitely enjoy your time there when you transfer.

[awright-31]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

I assume we all remember 2008, how about Hanukkah eve storm?

I was about 5-6 and we lived in a rural part of Olympia, surrounded by trees. I remember my mom taking us to a hotel because she thought trees were going to fall on the house.

Nothing hit the house, but we weren't able to get to our house for a couple days due to fallen trees and power lines blocking the only road in.

Once we did get in, we didn't have power for at least a week. We were staying with my grandma and I remember my mom would call our house phone every night to see if the power was back on yet. One night, the call went through and we went home. My fish all died because of the power outage and no heat. 6 year old me was not happy.

[TacomaWx]

I’m 24 years old and have been here since October 2018. Didn’t really start posting until February 2019 hit though. 

[High Desert Mat?]

11 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Well this post was unnecessary..... 

well he is the weiner warrior. What did you expect?

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, thisisacreativename said:

UW is a great school, you'll definitely enjoy your time there when you transfer.

Thank you! I hope it works out!

[Cold Snap]

3 minutes ago, awright-31 said:

I'm 22 and have been lurking since my senior year of high school (2019 event) and posting occasionally since I was around 20.
I will say I've learned 1000% more than the information I've been able to provide but that's what is so great about this place.

I started lurking around here during the lead up to Dec 2021. Found out about this place when I was looking on twitter and saw @Meatyorologist tweet. He’s the reason I found out about this place. Made an account in the fall of 2022 to join all the fun for the next winter and that winter definitely delivered IMBY. I’ve learned a lot since I have joined the forum especially when it comes to the models and arctic blasts.

[Requiem]

I've been posting since 2018 but we're going to ignore that first year and a half...

[jakerepp]

Just now, Requiem said:

I've been posting since 2018 but we're going to ignore that first year and a half...

That's how most of my forum memberships are. 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Requiem said:

I've been posting since 2018 but we're going to ignore that first year and a half...

I remember some people giving you such a hard time when I started out here…you were K12 right? 

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

I've been posting since 2018 but we're going to ignore that first year and a half...

Oh I remember! I have my fair share of ween from that time frame as well 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Happy birthday to @Cascadia_Wx don’t get too drunk but keep a good buzz going.

[Cascadia_Wx]

7 minutes ago, Mercurial said:

Unpopular opinion but this looks like a very realistic map in accordance with local microclimates and such out here.... I suspect the coldest air will penetrate a bit further south than depicted though.  It usually makes it down to Yellowstone eventually.

I mean honestly why even have models when we’ve got climo

[TT-SEA]

Tuesday has become sneaky turbulent and stormy.    This is the new ICON but all models show it now.   Doesn't seem to have much bearing on what happens later per the ECMWF. 

[The Blob]

Getting the night started. I'd drink the artic vibe, but I don't like the flavour.

[SeattleGrocer]

6 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I’m 24 years old and have been here since October 2018. Didn’t really start posting until February 2019 hit though. 

[SpaceRace22]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Thank you! I hope it works out!

Seconding that about UW. Absolutely 100% transfer there. I graduated from there and it was the best time of my life. I sometimes toy with going back to grad school just because I miss being on campus, lol

[SouthHillFrosty]

13 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

I’m also 23. It seems like there’s a decent amount of people around our age on this forum.

Yup I’m 24

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Happy birthday to @Cascadia_Wx don’t get too drunk but keep a good buzz going.

Thanks buddy! 

[GHweatherChris]

@Cascadia_Wx Hoppy Birthday man!!

[Cold Snap]

Block looking a little better on the ICON so far.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, SeattleGrocer said:

I will be 25 in a couple months and I’m starting to feel old! I am SO offended by this  

[Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone]

How I feel going into tonights runs 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yup I’m 24

Yeah... but your are married with a kid and you own a house.   You are on the fast track!

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, The Blob said:

Getting the night started. I'd drink the artic vibe, but I don't like the flavour.

Ngl those look super gross.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Thanks buddy! 

Happy b'day!

[icyasf]

13 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Dang I thought I would be youngest on the forum 

LOL, I am 18. I got put onto a weather craze because my dad has always been a weather fanatic and has had a weather station up and running for a long time. I am not well educated on anything weather wise but love seeing all the valuable input you guys put in, and love rooting for snow!

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Seconding that about UW. Absolutely 100% transfer there. I graduated from there and it was the best time of my life. I sometimes toy with going back to grad school just because I miss being on campus, lol

You are going to make @SilverFallsAndrew puke.   He hates UW with every fiber of his being.   

[SpaceRace22]

Just a suggestion for the mods, instead of quietly deleting so many posts and expecting people to be mind readers, you might be able to encourage the discussion you are looking to foster by instead editing posts and leaving a mod note in place of the text, rather than silently sending it into another dimension. I'd wager that most of the time, people don't even realize their own posts are deleted, and I've often seen stuff disappear that I don't really understand why it was deleted. Tell people what they did wrong, and leave a trace behind so that they know they even did it.

 

edit - It wasn't even my post that was deleted, before you think I'm salty about something, lol. I just noticed that the post count was rapidly going down in this thread. No idea what was even disappearing.

[GoldenEars]

15 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

I assume we all remember 2008, how about Hanukkah eve storm?

That's the storm that brought me to the forums. I was in Metchosin when it hit. It took out 42 trees on our property and no power for 5 days.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone said:

How I feel going into tonights runs 

We might be in for a treat... 00z ICON looks goated!!

[Christensen87]

4 minutes ago, The Blob said:

Getting the night started. I'd drink the artic vibe, but I don't like the flavour.

My partner loves the Arctic and Island vibes. 

[Meatyorologist]

Check out that IMPROVEMENT 

[Eugene-5SW]

43 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

1.10" of rain today so far and 1.90" for the month so far.

Wow, that's amazing. You've gotten more than twice as much rain as I have over the same periods (0.54" on the day, 0.86" on the month), and we're only a few miles apart.

Jelly that you're in such a favored location.