January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Phil]

I’ve been so focused on the 500mb maps I’ve lost track of the stratosphere. Looks like we might pull off a legit SSW after all.

Euro drives a barrage of wave activity that reinforces the wave-1 response more and more, until we’re bordering on a wind reversal.

[Front Ranger]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

The GFS should just let Google take over. Google is an American company after all. It can keep its name, just call it the Google Forecasting System.

[Phishy Wx]

I know everyone wants piles of snow but this feels more like brutal cold and dry over here on the east side (if it happens)  some snow, yes but I feel the story will be the cold more than anything.  I'm fine with that.  would like to see some records fall (ie -20s+)

gotta do some serious winterizing on the house tomorrow, err on the side of caution

 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

That's actually beautiful. And not just because of what it represents. Fluid dynamics are just mesmerizing.

Aren’t they though?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EC has it hopping the Kalapuya gap and into the Siuslaw and Umpqua Basins. Holy shitt.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

1 minute ago, Christensen87 said:

Welp. Here I am surprised. CFS still trash lol. Icon looks fine. 

Icons a lot better than "fine"

[Slushy Inch]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

Look at that TPV lobe/tropopause fold flying out of NE-Canada. That doesn’t happen without the -NAO/-NAM. NATL wave break is absolutely monstrous (top right of image).

Wow that is moving fast 

[Front Ranger]

Just now, Phil said:

I’ve been so focused on the 500mb maps I’ve lost track of the stratosphere. Looks like we might pull off a legit SSW after all.

Euro drives a barrage of wave activity that reinforces the wave-1 response more and more, until we’re bordering on a wind reversal.

I thought SSW usually lead blocking events by a week or two?

[Cold Snap]

This is crazy! King Euro for the win!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

And hopping Sexton Pass into the Coos and Rogue River basins. My god!

[SeanNyberg]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So don't post them if they are crazy snowy??   

Nonono. Absolutely post them for the purposes of hyping everyone up. They're like a non-narcotic stimulant. LOL. But do not put them up and refer to them as if they're actually going to happen. lol

[snow_wizard]

It flips around and nails us again!  Wow!

[High Desert Mat?]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’ve been so focused on the 500mb maps I’ve lost track of the stratosphere. Looks like we might pull off a legit SSW after all.

Euro drives a barrage of wave activity that reinforces the wave-1 response more and more, until we’re bordering on a wind reversal.

When? The present one?

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Chilly high temps! TOUCHDOOOWNNN!

[Cloud]

Day 7. More on the way?

[Doinko]

That lobe is just rotating back over us
 

[snow_wizard]

Epic!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SeanNyberg said:

Nonono. Absolutely post them for the purposes of hyping everyone up. They're like a non-narcotic stimulant. LOL. But do not put them up and refer to them as if they're actually going to happen. lol

*I think you are being a little bit dramatic.   The ECMWF did very well with the Dec 21 snowy arctic front... it showed tons of snow and it happened.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

STOP WATCHING THE SNOW TOTAL MAPS!!!!! LOL FOR YOUR OWN SANITY!!

If this thing plays out as it shows in a number of models, there are plenty of opportunities for lows to form, for convergence zones to pop up, and the hundreds of other ways we get precipitation forming seemingly out of nowhere with our microclimate and unique topography.

That is far far far above the abilities of any of these models. They can pick up large and medium scale features, but they have a hard time picking up the smaller systems that can end up dumping a ton of snow.

So STOP REFERRING TO THE SNOWFALL MAPS! They are completely inaccurate 

But I'm in the blue!

[SnowySeeker50]

Awesome run! The mood in here is a complete 180 from 24 hours ago

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Offshore system heads into Northern California next Saturday. It’s going to keep us in the freezer longer.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

9 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

STOP WATCHING THE SNOW TOTAL MAPS!!!!! LOL FOR YOUR OWN SANITY!!

If this thing plays out as it shows in a number of models, there are plenty of opportunities for lows to form, for convergence zones to pop up, and the hundreds of other ways we get precipitation forming seemingly out of nowhere with our microclimate and unique topography.

That is far far far above the abilities of any of these models. They can pick up large and medium scale features, but they have a hard time picking up the smaller systems that can end up dumping a ton of snow.

So STOP REFERRING TO THE SNOWFALL MAPS! They are completely inaccurate 

I disagree,  they can give an idea at least.

February 2019 showed over 3 feet 1 week out for my spot and I got 38 inches. But I do agree things pop up at the last minute and a lot can happen with arctic fronts.

 

Edited January 7 by MR.SNOWMIZER

[Doinko]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Epic!

Wow, that just sits and rotates back over us, blasting us with extremely cold air after the first round

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

That lobe is just rotating back over us
 

Same as the GEM.  Totally insane!

This is why some of us on here have been dying for a January event for so long.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I thought SSW usually lead blocking events by a week or two?

Not always. In an extremely well coupled situation they can occur synchronously with the tropospheric amplification. Vice versa, in a poor setup the tropospheric effects can lag by several months!

Also this SSW/wave-1 technically started a week ago. The stratosphere is very receptive this year (which is a good thing because a very lagged down well would be unfavorable for the PNW w/rt niño climo).

[Deweydog]

Biblical backdoor action. 

[fubario]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’ve been so focused on the 500mb maps I’ve lost track of the stratosphere. Looks like we might pull off a legit SSW after all.

Euro drives a barrage of wave activity that reinforces the wave-1 response more and more, until we’re bordering on a wind reversal.

this sounds really good.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

But I'm in the blue!

You might want to tell your friends the cold might be a big deal.

[Slushy Inch]

Upper single digits. Low 20s high.

[HuskyMaestro]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Epic!

[Ken in Wood Village]

1 minute ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Offshore system heads into Northern California next Saturday. It’s going to keep us in the freezer longer.

 

Check out the gradient for the Gorge. This looks like a massive cold East wind event. Windchill factors could be below zero if this verifies 🌬

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Sub-freezing temps at Cape Blanco, Gold Beach and Brookings. Insane.

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Offshore system heads into Northern California next Saturday. It’s going to keep us in the freezer longer.

 

The way things are looking, I might get buried while in Tahoe. Too much of a good thing.

[SpaceRace22]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Biblical backdoor action. 

Oh I saw that DVD in my mommy and daddy's bedside drawer once

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

But I'm in the blue!

Bullseye!

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Sunday morning!

[snow_wizard]

When that shortwave to the NW drops down who knows what could happen.

[Phil]

TPV is out of the region by D9, but still an impressive blast and relatively impressive duration.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

You might want to tell your friends the cold might be a big deal.

Subsequent runs will almost certainly moderate it.

If models later converge on super-cold forecasts I will update them.