January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Frontal Snowsquall]

KOIN going with a high of 20 next Saturday. 

[Seattle]

22 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Cancel!! 

Haha, that I would not do (I guess I'm not a TRUE weenie). I booked the trip in March 2023... thinking mid-January would be prime torch territory.

I can only hope the rest of winter isn't as awful as December was.

[HuskyMaestro]

26 minutes ago, DC1 said:

it was komo news, i was kinda shocked seeing it lol 

she said the only thing we have to worry about this week is the wind and rain

I was watching KOMO earlier as well. No mention about cold and snow until the very end but as a "side note", and they were showing rain/snow mix when it was projected to be 23F?

If the brutal cold verifies, these people are endangering others who aren't so fortunate to have a warm place to stay. 

[TT-SEA]

39 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

2 to 4 inches from the initial cold shot.  Very decent chance of 3 inches or more next weekend.

I would be surprised if there is widespread 2-4 inches across the entire Seattle area on Thursday evening.    But who knows.   Seems like there would be some hints of that on the ECMWF.    Focusing on just the 1 p.m. Thursday through 1 p.m. Friday period from the 12Z ECMWF shows quite a bit less.    The temp is still around 40 in Seattle at 1 p.m. Thursday with a strong SW wind and the arctic front should arrive late afternoon there.    Then it shows the push from the north is strong enough to dry out the moisture by 7 or 8 p.m.  

I think one thing that could help significantly is if the models slow down the timing.    A slower arctic intrusion with more over-water trajectory could result in a December 2021 situation which was a really ideal set up for producing widespread snow with a low developing along the front.

(Randy and others to the north  - your snow arrives in the morning so this map does not include your snow before 1 p.m.)

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I would be surprised if there is widespread 2-4 inches across the entire Seattle area on Thursday evening.    But who knows.   Seems like there would be some hints of that on the ECMWF.    Focusing on just the 1 p.m. Thursday through 1 p.m. Friday period from the 12Z ECMWF shows quite a bit less.    The temp is still around 40 in Seattle at 1 p.m. Thursday with a strong SW wind and the arctic front should arrive late afternoon there.    Then it shows the push from the north is strong enough to dry out the moisture by 7 or 8 p.m.  

I think one thing that could help significantly is if the model slow down the timing.    A slower arctic intrusion with more over-water trajectory could result in a December 2021 situation which was a really set up for producing widespread snow with a low developing along the front.

Several of the early runs showed a low forming. I kinda believe it will show up again.

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, DC1 said:

i cant believe the nws is talking like this is going to be a marginal event next weekend. its looking like regardless of the outcome of models it stays snow into the following week

 

Seattle? or Portland? What is your location/ elevation again?

[The Cats Meow]

4 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

They seem to be trying to get ahead of this one already which is kinda scary, tbh. We always get one big rug pull to start the season most years, that way no one ever trusts them again for the rest of the season. Hopefully the abnormal set up and el nino situation make this year different and this one ends up being the real deal. Fingers crossed. 

It's not easy with all the micro climates we have west of the cascades from Bellingham to Portland and beyond.

Mentioning possibilities seems best.

From the Olympic Peninsula to the convergence zone in Everett to people who basically live in the mountains(Tim) or Issaquah or the Chehalis gap or where the cold air floods out of the Columbia into Portland it's just hard to come up with a one size fits all type of forecast.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Cliff’s baby says I get snow tomorrow morning.

[GHweatherChris]

28 minutes ago, Phil said:

I don’t see evidence of this. The canonical El Niño pattern should be back full swing later this month.

Well you didn't think what may happen later this  week was possible, yet here we are.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Several of the early runs showed a low forming. I kinda believe it will show up again.

Often happens so would not be surprised either.  

This map is from 10 p.m. Wednesday through 10 p.m. Thursday so it encompasses the entire arctic front passage.   Also includes lots cold onshore flow snow in the Cascades before the arctic front.  

[GHweatherChris]

Ok my raccoon friend and I have thought about it, based off past similar setups, the late Thursday to Saturday timeframe screams overachievement on snowfall in regards to what the models currently show.  I believe that as we get to Tues/Wed the models will start to show a more impressive amount of snow over a much wider portion of the region, but I could be wrong, just has that feeling to  it!!

Edited January 8 by GHweatherChris

[Jbolin]

Soooo, its "over" again? 

[thisisacreativename]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Ok my raccoon friend and I have thought about, based off past similar setups, the late Thursday to Saturday timeframe screams overachievement on snowfall in regards to what the models currently show.  I believe that as we get to Tues/Wed the models will start to show a more impressive amount of snow over a much wider portion of the region, but I would be wrong, just hast that feeling to  it!!

Good vibes only?

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Ok my raccoon friend and I have thought about, based off past similar setups, the late Thursday to Saturday timeframe screams overachievement on snowfall in regards to what the models currently show.  I believe that as we get to Tues/Wed the models will start to show a more impressive amount of snow over a much wider portion of the region, but I would be wrong, just hast that feeling to  it!!

How about locking up the racoon for a couple days?    

[BLI snowman]

26 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

You and I are the exact opposite, so I know how the missing out feel is and can empathize. Sorry, fellow weenie. Despite living in either Seattle or Portland since 2009, I have missed almost every single major snow event in the last 15 years by being out of state or in the "wrong" city when it happened. The biggest snow event I have physically been present for, funnily enough, was April 2022 in Portland, where I just happened to be visiting from Seattle, to dog sit for my mom. I got like 8" at her house in Salmon Creek that morning. Melted immediately, but the novelty of it was neat!

I live primarily in California now for work but try to time my trips up there in the winter with possible snow. I got "lucky" and was even in Portland for February 2023, but my mom's house ended up being in the one snow hole of the entire area and we got maybe an inch at absolute most while everyone else a few miles in all directions got at least 8-16".

As luck would have it, I had a preplanned trip to Portland this month for the 8th to the 20th, which just happened to coincide with this event. Knowing my history though, that is probably the nail in the coffin for the Portland area. Sorry PDXers.

Funny enough I missed the 4/11/2022 storm while on a Kauai trip, which dropped 7-8" according to the neighbors. Pretty much the only misfire in my days.

Edited January 8 by BLI snowman

[TT-SEA]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

Funny enough I missed the 4/11/2022 storm on a Kauai trip, which dropped 7-8" according to the neighbors. Pretty much the only misfire in my days.

Just crazy you would miss that much snow with a mid-April trip!  

[iFred]

Just now, Jbolin said:

Soooo, its "over" again? 

Yes.

I wonder what the Seattle Wxtwitter has to say.

[Requiem]

I'm not really sure how it measures up synoptically, but parts of this setup is giving me shades of 2/2014. Well, we'd be fortunate to see a repeat.

[MossMan]

21 minutes ago, North_County said:

Went outside to recheck that the generator was in good working condition and to make sure my son still knew how to operate it in case I'm not around, and already fell behind 5 pages. You people are insane.

Well according to Phillip we will be headed back to El Niño doldrums after next week until 2026 so the forum should quiet right down again! 

Edited January 8 by MossMan

[Blizzard777]

4 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Those trees must be at least 500' tall.

Well done a front Ranger, well done

[Doinko]

Just now, Requiem said:

I'm not really sure how it measures up synoptically, but parts of this setup is giving me shades of 2/2014. Well, we'd be fortunate to see a repeat.

I was looking through Mark's blog posts from that earlier, it was definitely a great event

[iFred]

Just now, MossMan said:

Well according to Phillip we will be headed back to El Niño doldrums after next week until 2026. 

2027, just in time for the tenth anniversary of the Grand Solar Minimum ice age we experienced.

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

How about locking up the racoon for a couple days?    

Why, he has been more helpful with making snow happen in my backyard than anything the last several years.  I see your thumbs up and raise you a , that's for offending Ronaldo the Raccoon!!

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Requiem said:

I'm not really sure how it measures up synoptically, but parts of this setup is giving me shades of 2/2014. Well, we'd be fortunate to see a repeat.

I need to look up that event... Matt was talking about that earlier today.     There almost has to be more snow after the arctic air is in place... potential for a big snow event is very high from Saturday into next week.  

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Why, he has been more helpful with making snow happen in my backyard than anything the last several years.  I see your thumbs up and raise you a , that's for offending Ronaldo the Raccoon!!

Ahhh... I get it.   Its a reverse psychology racoon.   Run free Ronaldo! 

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just crazy you would miss that much snow with a mid-April trip!  

By all accounts I should have been safe.

Also was in Hawaii for part of the November 2006 event, but luckily (?) that one laid a pretty fat egg here.

 

[Parrot]

Not weenie-ing yet but I do hate how reliably I'm getting snow-holed on all these maps

[TacomaWx]

9 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Ok my raccoon friend and I have thought about, based off past similar setups, the late Thursday to Saturday timeframe screams overachievement on snowfall in regards to what the models currently show.  I believe that as we get to Tues/Wed the models will start to show a more impressive amount of snow over a much wider portion of the region, but I would be wrong, just hast that feeling to  it!!

There will be more snowfall than that euro map shows. 

[Front Ranger]

18 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

I was watching KOMO earlier as well. No mention about cold and snow until the very end but as a "side note", and they were showing rain/snow mix when it was projected to be 23F?

If the brutal cold verifies, these people are endangering others who aren't so fortunate to have a warm place to stay. 

Nah. General rule of thumb is give people 48-72 hours notice, if possible.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

There will be more snowfall than that euro map shows. 

As Chris was saying... that is what could change right up to the event.   The 500mb pattern and cold air placement seems like its about locked in and now we watch for changes on the snow maps.

[HuskyMaestro]

2 minutes ago, Parrot said:

Not weenie-ing yet but I do hate how reliably I'm getting snow-holed on all these maps

You still probably do way better than the Swamp down here lol  

[LowerGarfield]

27 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Funny enough I missed the 4/11/2022 storm while on a Kauai trip, which dropped 7-8" according to the neighbors. Pretty much the only misfire in my days.

That was one of my favorite weeks. It snowed at my location at least once for 7-8 days (some just flurries). The older kids had an Easter egg hunt in snow flurries. I had 2.5 inches of snow as a wedding anniversary present on 4/12/22. We were in Hood River on 4-11-22 and admired the snowfall which was heavy but the roads were clear enough to go home by noon. Probably got a few inches at home per my home camera but was nearly all melted when we got home.

[SouthHillFrosty]

6 minutes ago, Parrot said:

Not weenie-ing yet but I do hate how reliably I'm getting snow-holed on all these maps

Buddy…. U ever been to the swamp lol

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I need to look up that event... Matt was talking about that earlier today.     There almost has to be more snow after the arctic air is in place... potential for a big snow event is very high from Saturday into next week.  

Here are some of Mark's blogs:
A Colder 7 Day Forecast | FOX 12 Weather Blog (wordpress.com)
2nd Arctic Blast of Winter 2013-14 On The Way | FOX 12 Weather Blog (wordpress.com)
Quick Tuesday Evening Update | FOX 12 Weather Blog (wordpress.com)
Snow Possible in Valley Thursday & Friday | FOX 12 Weather Blog (wordpress.com)
Winter Storm Watch: Western Lowlands of Oregon Thursday | FOX 12 Weather Blog (wordpress.com)
11pm: Looks Snowier For Metro Area | FOX 12 Weather Blog (wordpress.com)
Snowstorm Today! 9am Update | FOX 12 Weather Blog (wordpress.com)


And here's his recap
Feb 2014 Snow/Ice Wrapup | FOX 12 Weather Blog (archive.org)

[Ken in Wood Village]

I looked at the 00Z NAM because it's picking up that secondary low now. I also did a cross section close to the Portland area. Even though the temperatures are not below freezing, it looks like it still can support snow. 

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

I looked at the 00Z NAM because it's picking up that secondary low now. I also did a cross section close to the Portland area. Even though the temperatures are not below freezing, it looks like it still can support snow. 

The 3km model does change us to snow

[GHweatherChris]

16 minutes ago, thisisacreativename said:

Good vibes only?

Until there isn't, ride or die!

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

You still probably do way better than the Swamp down here lol  

I am not totally sure of the set up with the November 2006 arctic front... but I remember we only got about an inch out here while Issaquah had a foot and I think the same thing happened in the south Sound.    I can't ever remember another time when Issaquah had that much more snow than out here.  It was surreal driving west on I-90 the next day and seeing the snow get deeper and deeper.  Its almost always the opposite.   Issaquah was buried and there must not have been much wind because the trees were all holding onto the snow.   It was gorgeous.  

I thought at the time that the cold air from the north down through the Sound caused upsloping against the Issaquah Alps and the hills south of the Puget Sound but left us essentially shadowed in North Bend.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Good chance for wet snow tonight when the next round arrives. Temp sitting at 33 depoint 30. Some meso models hinting at a couple inches. Very much like the set up 2 weeks ago that dropped 4 inches. 

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Good chance for wet snow tonight when the next round arrives. Temp sitting at 33 depoint 30. Some meso models hinting at a couple inches. Very much like the set up 2 weeks ago that dropped 4 inches. 

925s support that thought currently.... almost even for my yard!

Edited January 8 by GHweatherChris