January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[TT-SEA]

Low snow level and some blue sky this morning. 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

1 minute ago, Tyler Mode said:

Arctic air moving through Glacier NP right now.  The lake was calm an hour ago.

Your pictures are always cool.  Keep them coming!

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Tyler Mode said:

Right on the lake yes, I think a lot is clouds/snow in the distance though.

Seems like Lake McDonald should really be frozen this time of year. Maybe the upcoming -40s for that area will do the trick.

[Tyler Mode]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Seems like Lake McDonald should really be frozen this time of year. Maybe the upcoming -40s for that area will do the trick.

It's a large lake and the wind is often ripping keeping it from completely freezing.  Usually late January and February it gets iced over quite a bit though.

[SimplySmoothWX]

All snow here in Corvallis!

[RentonHill]

WRF still wants to bring the goods up here

 

[Timmy]

I will take a large order of the wrf please.

[TT-SEA]

All 12Z GEM ensemble members for Saturday. 

[Front Ranger]

I see the 6z Euro has a -53 in NW Montana at day 3. Pretty sure I've never seen it that cold so close to verification.

[LowerGarfield]

34 minutes ago, Sandy rocks said:

I grew up in Cathlamet, Wa, west of Longview. Name is similar to the indian name for the Lewis. The county is Wahkiakum, which was the name of one of the chiefs.  Cathlamet was quite a large community of maybe 1,000 which is larger than the current town. It was a prominent tribe on the lower Columbia.

I've always wanted to go ride that tiny car ferry in Cathlamet. State supported I think?

[RaleighHillsRunner]

25 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Are the PDX folks gonna have their own meetup on Friday?? Or is there just too much love lost down there…if PDX scores big time I’ll drive down a box of shirts to one of y’all 

Sounds fun but we’re a bunch of weenies down here, so if it actually does snow it will be a citywide state of panic, hoarding and mayhem on the streets  

 

 

[Timmy]

28 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Slightly miss leading because even some of the far south ones dont give snow down the Willamette Valley. The easiest way to see the southern shift in the overall guidance is the 24 precip map. The GFS is still insistent on Seattle getting snow, just my opinion, I think north of Olympia will be dry.

There are many here that are more qualified to speak to this. But this seems kinda similar to 2014 I remember the euro painting a deformation band over my area as the low went south of the Arctic boundary.  Seems like the merging of the two should increase precip more than modeled possibly?

[Tyler Mode]

3 minutes ago, Timmy said:

There are many here that are more qualified to speak to this. But this seems kinda similar to 2014 I remember the euro painting a deformation band over my area as the low went south of the Arctic boundary.  Seems like the merging of the two should increase precip more than modeled possibly?

It was suppose to go pretty far south, NWS predicted 2-4" I think for PDX, I had 7" even further north.

[LowerGarfield]

18 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Sounds close, I expect some places with the arctic trough to get a foot. The Port angles area will get hammered.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Tyler Mode said:

It was suppose to go pretty far south, NWS predicted 2-4" I think for PDX, I had 7" even further north.

Yeah a lot of models showed nothing up here, I had 6" just with the first storm

[LowerGarfield]

15 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Pretty amazing how the GEM manages to bone just about everyone.

If the Gem verifies, would it be cold enough for snow in Medford/Ashland or too warm?

[Front Ranger]

47 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I’m hanging on to the EPS in the hopes that YVR sees -19C 850s.  Not normally a stats guy really but would be cool to set a near benchmark for this century. 

If some places can get at least a little snow cover and have one clear, calm night, could be some crazy numbers.

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

If the Gem verifies, would it be cold enough for snow in Medford/Ashland or too warm?

Looks pretty marginal. The really cold stuff just doesn't make it down that far.

[Tyler Mode]

My record lows tomorrow through Tuesday, all from 2017.

22.4, 2017

20.4, 2017

10.1, 2017

9.5, 2017

11.4, 2017

19.0, 2017

26.5, 2017

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I see the 6z Euro has a -53 in NW Montana at day 3. Pretty sure I've never seen it that cold so close to verification.

That is the coldest i have ever seen in Montana. Holy shittttt

[The Blob]

39 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Are the PDX folks gonna have their own meetup on Friday?? Or is there just too much love lost down there…if PDX scores big time I’ll drive down a box of shirts to one of y’all 

I'm staying home, I know how these Portland people are in the snow.

[ShawniganLake]

40 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Odds are for the south solution but we have been burnt by this so many times i lost count.

I’m talking about next week.  Ridge rebuilds?  Inversion?  Another arctic trough?  Warm and wet?  Seems like everything is a possibility. 

[Front Ranger]

10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I see the 6z Euro has a -53 in NW Montana at day 3. Pretty sure I've never seen it that cold so close to verification.

GEM has a -56 a bit further east at day 4. The GFS *only* gets down to a -40 at its coldest.

[Mid Valley Duck]

10 minutes ago, Timmy said:

There are many here that are more qualified to speak to this. But this seems kinda similar to 2014 I remember the euro painting a deformation band over my area as the low went south of the Arctic boundary.  Seems like the merging of the two should increase precip more than modeled possibly?

This may come across as total wishcasting but this gives me vibes of a hybrid between Jan 2004 and Feb 2014. 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Mid Valley Duck said:

This may come across as total wishcasting but this gives me vibes of a hybrid between Jan 2004 and Feb 2014. 

I think it’s going to be awesome for you guys down there. I don’t think some of these model runs showing everything going south of Eugene will verify. Going to be a good one. 

[Skagit Weather]

5 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

My record lows tomorrow through Tuesday, all from 2017.

22.4, 2017

20.4, 2017

10.1, 2017

9.5, 2017

11.4, 2017

19.0, 2017

26.5, 2017

Wow! That snow cover did wonders for you!

It didn't drop below 20F up here during that event and I didn't even have a subfreezing high. Here are the lows:

1/11: 20.1
1/12: 22.8
1/13: 20.6
1/14: 21.2
1/15: 23.5

[Front Ranger]

42 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Things could definitely come back north to a certain extent if the Arctic push out of BC isn’t as strong as projected. Seems like these things always end up being delayed or watered down a bit once things start moving. 

They're moving, friend! Already -6 in Prince George, central BC. Should see -20s in southern BC by tomorrow am.

[OysterPrintout]

Outside of WRF/GRAF feels like last night was a pretty big and somewhat predictable bust by the models. Every year I tell myself the snow maps at 35 degrees aren't gonna pan out but then 12 months later I'm doing some vision boards of frontogenesis and isothermal profiles and basically

 

[Kayla]

16 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I see the 6z Euro has a -53 in NW Montana at day 3. Pretty sure I've never seen it that cold so close to verification.

Definitely looks like a cold air damning effect for that area with this.

 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

They're moving, friend! Already -6 in Prince George, central BC. Should see -20s in southern BC by tomorrow am.

I always get nervous when the arctic air gets down to Lytton/Hope. If it starts having trouble moving I get anxious. The wait for the arctic air every time to get down to the south sound feels like years lol. Guidance overall shows it punching through without issue though for now. 

[Phishy Wx]

37 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Think you'll pull off a sub-zero high? 

would be cool, I'd give it about a 20% chance.  I'm pushing for something below -10 regardless of time of day.  that's coldest its been in the 6 years i've been here

[SilverFallsAndrew]

IBRCHRIS seems pretty on board with a memorable low level arctic blast. He thinks it could be the best in many years. 

[Skagit Weather]

6 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Wow! That snow cover did wonders for you!

It didn't drop below 20F up here during that event and I didn't even have a subfreezing high. Here are the lows:

1/11: 20.1
1/12: 22.8
1/13: 20.6
1/14: 21.2
1/15: 23.5

I would need to drop below 17.7F to set a January record low for my station (since 2010) and have a high below 24.8F to set a January record min-max.

Both of those I think are probably within reach.

[SouthHillFrosty]

29 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

WRF still wants to bring the goods up here

 

First time I’ve ever seen a radar map for this model lol. Wanna post a snow total pls?

[ShawniganLake]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I always get nervous when the arctic air gets down to Lytton/Hope. If it starts having trouble moving I get anxious. The wait for the arctic air every time to get down to the south sound feels like years lol. Guidance overall shows it punching through without issue though for now. 

This has some momentum. I usually assume it will get delayed at least some from what the models show but I think this will come through pretty quickly. 

[Front Ranger]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I always get nervous when the arctic air gets down to Lytton/Hope. If it starts having trouble moving I get anxious. The wait for the arctic air every time to get down to the south sound feels like years lol. Guidance overall shows it punching through without issue though for now. 

Yeah, I remember it well.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

First time I’ve ever seen a radar map for this model lol. Wanna post a snow total pls?

I’m in the Pepto!!!!!!!! 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12z GFS output for PDX. They get to freezing by Friday 4pm. Storm totals of 11.6” snow and 0.3” ice by Saturday evening. A south wind never surfaces so PDX barely makes it above freezing Wednesday and Thursday. The GFS has been trending a little bit south though each run so expect more changes. But it’s a good bet PDX will stay in the freezer for much of next week. Just a matter of how much snow or ice?

[Phishy Wx]

11 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Definitely looks like a cold air damning effect for that area with this.

 

more interesting is that's Libby I think.  technically west of the highest rockies in Glacier.  leads me to think that can bleed down into N ID and E WA thru the trench

[luvssnow_spokane]

47 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

You are legendary for the whining you have done through the years here man, You live in a snowy climate and we don't. Do you see why we don't want to see this bullshitt?

It was not whining.   -- It is what the models are showing, but you might get a surprise. WE ALL might be surprised, and hopefully so. That being said, it is looking dry, and that is the case as of now.  HOPE YOU GET BURIED. It will likely be dry here, and I am cool with that as I already got 4 inches this year. I HOPE YOU GET 12 or more!!!