January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[North_County]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Do you realize we analyze each frame of each model as it comes out?   This was like 6 pages ago now.  

Yeah, I just replied to a comment that it said was posted 15 minutes ago. That coment is now 4 pages back. I can't wait to see what's said in the next 15 minutes......

[Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone]

I'm looking at an apocalyptic ice storm event. How much devastation would there be with wide spread 1-2" ice accumulation in the central WV??. I stocked up 50 gallons of gas just for the generator. No turning back now here we go! 

[The Winter Warlock]

2 minutes ago, Tanis Leach said:

So computer tech just called me, my computer is Kapoot. I am now in the market for a new computer. What specs would you all recommend considering the following factors:

Should be able to take on grad school if I go that route. 

If I go straight into a meteorology job (we'll let's hope the job market gets better), then it should take on that. 

 

I know Oklahoma reccomends an I7, 16 GB of RAM, and 500 GB SSD. Virginia Tech has the last 2 reccomended but just says an I or ryzen series processor. 

Just get a MacBook. And run Parallels if you need Windows.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

As lovely as the 00z GFS was for Portland, there is a certain uneasiness to being in the bullseye 60 hours out. Especially with how the models have been in flux.

You’ll really pile up the sleet if this run verifies 

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Nope! Like the GFS better now! In the blue there, this one grey is no good! 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, westcoastexpat said:

I think Seattle is going to get hit pretty hard. Trends are clearly north on all the models. There will be some surprises this weekend. And probably some bonus snow along the Arctic front before the main event.

I would say the trend has been toward very good agreement today.   The GFS has been solidly trending south today.    Doesn't mean the models will stay in agreement though.

[The Winter Warlock]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Almost 3”!!!!!!!!!!

EPSL doesn’t look too shabby.

[SnowWillarrive]

9 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Best GEM run in awhile. That shows solid 1-3 inches EPSL. Im skeptical 

[Darrington Troll]

2 minutes ago, Sandy rocks said:

I know you guys up north would probably like to believe that Oregon doesn't exist but we do. In fact, we have a coastline that happens to be 350 miles long. So a storm isn't automatically and magically jump from Redding to Ocean Shores. I do wish you the best. It's going to be what it is, no matter how much we wish cast. 

What’s Oregon?

[Requiem]

GEM looks further north from what I can tell, but still significantly more south than other models 

[Perturbed Member]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

As lovely as the 00z GFS was for Portland, there is a certain uneasiness to being in the bullseye 60 hours out. Especially with how the models have been in flux.

Yeah, feels like it's never good to peak too early on these. 

I do like that the GFS didn't trend north though, its southward shift and the other models inching north feels like it might be a convergence on a solution. Hopefully more subtle changes from here on out...probably wishful thinking though. 

[TT-SEA]

GEM is still south of Portland.   Almost no snow in western OR on Saturday.   Crazy.

[the_convergence_zone]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I think the swath of precipitation on the north side could potentially be underdone and less suppressed. We would be fighting some dry air…but it’s possible we could be surprised this far north. 

There will almost certainly be radar returns well north of where measurable precip is coming out of the models.

I still think Seattle gets a goose egg, even if 20% of EPS members had something I would have hope. But it’s almost a complete shutout and even the GEFS has been pessimistic for several runs now. 

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

I think Seattle is going to get hit pretty hard. Trends are clearly north on all the models. There will be some surprises this weekend. And probably some bonus snow along the Arctic front before the main event.

I could see us getting a little more snow than projected up in Puget sound  but hard to imagine a huge jump north now that the gfs is really close to the other models. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, Sandy rocks said:

I know you guys up north would probably like to believe that Oregon doesn't exist but we do. In fact, we have a coastline that happens to be 350 miles long. So a storm isn't automatically and magically jump from Redding to Ocean Shores. I do wish you the best. It's going to be what it is, no matter how much we wish cast. 

And?

[DDDRWx]

17 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

GFS looks slightly warmer/colder and north/south.

More at 11.

Exactly!  Trying to utilize the tea leaves to decipher the mixed messages.  

[Hawksfan2008]

Selfishly hope the EURO follows the GEM regarding moisture tomorrow. Better for western Washington overall and North Bend area is the bullseye. Way more precip on this run. 

[MWG]

2 minutes ago, Darrington Troll said:

What’s Oregon?

That's what my parents from Puerto Rico asked me when I told them I was moving there.  kidding......kinda

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

GEM is still south of Portland.   No snow in western OR.   Crazy.

 

Doesn't make much sense. You have a bitterly cold air mass to the north, low move in to the south of it and all it produces is some freezing rain?

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Selfishly hope the EURO follows the GEM regarding moisture tomorrow. Better for western Washington overall and North Bend area is the bullseye. Way more precip on this run. 

I feel tomorrow night is our best shot in Puget Sound. @snow_wizard what you think? 

[Winterdog]

This thing has worn me out.  A complete numbing of my brain.  Congratulations Oregon!  You deserve whatever you get.  I'll just try to enjoy keeping the hummingbirds alive while savoring all the wintry photos that our southern members will be posting.  

 

[The Blob]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I this a January 2017 set up for Portland?  

I was just telling my manager I wanted a repeat.

[NorthBend RainEnthusiast]

10 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

There will almost certainly be radar returns well north of where measurable precip is coming out of the models.

I still think Seattle gets a goose egg, even if 20% of EPS members had something I would have hope. But it’s almost a complete shutout and even the GEFS has been pessimistic for several runs now. 

We will see, I think things will end up better than forecast overall. I’m more of an optimist and you seem like more of a pessimist lol. Either way I get what you’re saying and respect your input you could be right. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

8 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I think the swath of precipitation on the north side could potentially be underdone and less suppressed. We would be fighting some dry air…but it’s possible we could be surprised this far north. 

I think the north edge will have a lot of virga. Seen it happen many times with this set up for the south sound. 

[MWG]

Just now, Winterdog said:

This thing has worn me out.  A complete numbing of my brain.  Congratulations Oregon!  You deserve whatever you get.  I'll just try to enjoy keeping the hummingbirds alive while savoring all the wintry photos that our southern members will be posting.  

 

Not all Oregon! Southern Oregon gets nothing! lol

[Cascadia_Wx]

9 minutes ago, Sandy rocks said:

I know you guys up north would probably like to believe that Oregon doesn't exist but we do. In fact, we have a coastline that happens to be 350 miles long. So a storm isn't automatically and magically jump from Redding to Ocean Shores. I do wish you the best. It's going to be what it is, no matter how much we wish cast. 

POTD

[Requiem]

GEM-- pretty recurring theme on the models of a significant ice storm in the central and south valley 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

The GFS has such awful terrain bleed in our area.   I have come to just know what crazy snow amounts mean what in reality here.  If we had all the snow the GFS has showed over this winter we would probably be over 300 inches.   

But that being said... that map tells me it will definitely snow here tomorrow!

[ShawniganLake]

35 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

@ShawniganLake  I am losing faith in the RDPS! 

 

It hasn’t happened yet. Could be right. But HRDPS is where it’s at and it only goes out 48 hrs. 

[Mid Valley Duck]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I this a January 2017 set up for Portland?  

That snowfall happened largely in an 8 hour period. This is 3x as long as that. Honestly think this will surpass that. 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I think the north edge will have a lot of virga. Seen it happen many times with this set up for the south sound. 

Yeah I do get that, I’m just saying the models could be under doing measurable precipitation on the north side. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 minutes ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, Darrington Troll said:

What’s Oregon?

Not sure. I did play a game called the Oregon trail on the Apple 2c as a kid so there might be a place called that? 

[Hawksfan2008]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The GFS has such awful terrain bleed in our area.   I have come to just know what crazy snow amounts mean what in reality here.  If we had all the snow the GFS has showed over this winter we would probably be over 300 inches.   

But that being said... that map tells me it will definitely snow here tomorrow!

Looking at timing of precip off the GEM we have a chance to do pretty D**n well tomorrow!  

[NorthBend RainEnthusiast]

1 minute ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

[Cold Snap]

20 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

Feel like models will definitely fluctuate a bit more as we wait for the arctic front to push south. After we see how aggressive the arctic air really is things will solidify more.

Yeah I’m feeling that way too. If the arctic air push south isn’t as aggressive as the models are calling for I feel like we will see a trend north.

[TacomaWx]

Either way tomorrow should be fun to track the Arctic air spilling out of BC. 0F at Williams lake and 28F in Lytton. So the Arctic air must be somewhere south of Williams lake right meow. 

[The Blob]

Keep the extreme predictions coming. I'm sharing them to the work group chat to scare people from coming to work

[Tanis Leach]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Portland OR

807 PM PST Wed Jan 10 2024

 

ORZ006-WAZ039-111215-

/O.CON.KPQR.WS.A.0003.240113T0000Z-240114T0200Z/

Greater Portland Metro Area-Greater Vancouver Area-

Including the cities of Hillsboro, Portland, Wilsonville,

Oregon City, Gresham, Troutdale, Vancouver, Battle Ground,

Ridgefield, Washougal, Yacolt, and Amboy

807 PM PST Wed Jan 10 2024

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON

THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

 

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 8

  inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph.

 

* WHERE...In Oregon, Greater Portland Metro Area. In Washington,

  Greater Vancouver Area.

 

* WHEN...From Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon.

 

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous

  conditions could impact the evening commute.

 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will likely begin Friday afternoon but

  will likely not accumulate on surfaces until later Friday

  evening. Snow amounts will depend on how quickly snow diminishes

  Friday night. One to 4 inches possible through late Friday

  evening, with amounts greater than 8 inches possible if snow

  persists into Saturday.