March 2024 Weather in the PNW

[BLI snowman]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Was in 1935 or 1936 when Portland had 5” of snow around April 1st? 

Portland had a 37/31 with 5" of snow on April Fool's Day in 1936.

1935-36 was an insane cold season, with the October arctic blast/snow, the historically cold February, and then the late March/early April event.

[BLI snowman]

Pretty gusty south winds at times here now, probably 40mph.

[Doinko]

Sunny for a bit in the morning, but we just had a big downpour. Windy too

[snow_wizard]

At this point I think the chances are pretty good we will get into a deep trough again during the later part of the month.  We are in an amplified regime and the chances of a ridge staying put for more than a week are very low with big MJO wave in play right now.  As the wave moves the forcing it causes in the mid latitudes will move as well.

As for next winter....it's actually more likely than not it will be amplified based on recent trends alone.  Some decades are simply more amplified than others and this one is up there in the blocking department.  Add to that the fact we will probably have a Nina going with positive QBO, and you have a good likelihood the blocking will be in favorable locations for us.  Big Nino to Nina transition is yet another thing our favor.  This decade is on track to be a really good one for us overall.

[snow_wizard]

20 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Portland had a 37/31 with 5" of snow on April Fool's Day in 1936.

1935-36 was an insane cold season, with the October arctic blast/snow, the historically cold February, and then the late March/early April event.

The next winter was superb as well.

[snow_wizard]

The GFS has owned the ECMWF for precip this morning.  The ECMWF showed a wet morning here and there hasn't been a drop.  Not sure what is going on with the ECMWF lately.

[bainbridgekid]

40 mph in Everett and 36 at SEA.

[iFred]

46 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think we are due for a 19th century winter. 

CANSIPs says next year is our year

[iFred]

2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

40 mph in Everett and 36 at SEA.

In a sheltered area in Lowell and you'd think it was a non event kind of day. I miss windstorms.

[Phishy Wx]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS has owned the ECMWF for precip this morning.  The ECMWF showed a wet morning here and there hasn't been a drop.  Not sure what is going on with the ECMWF lately.

well globals are for pattern recognition more than backyard forecasting, so nothing is wrong

[TT-SEA]

16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS has owned the ECMWF for precip this morning.  The ECMWF showed a wet morning here and there hasn't been a drop.  Not sure what is going on with the ECMWF lately.

Very minor differences between the GFS and the ECMWF for this morning.    Both showed offshore flow hanging on this morning with the focus of the precip to the west.    

[Timmy Supercell]

59 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think we are due for a 19th century winter. 

We know that would last one month. Just gimme a summer full of 80's, I can put up with some humidity.

[Fircrest]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Palm trees look better in Seattle then San Diego.

Looks like Ocean Beach.  We were there in December.  Is the pier still closed?

[Phil]

Interesting.

 

[Phil]

7 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

It seems like it’s gearing towards one.. in 2022 I would barely be at my first thunder right now and those were garden variety in early Spring.

Post-strong niño summers have the highest frequency of derecho activity and overall severe weather activity across western Appalachia. And a longer convective season too. Yeah I’d be bullish if I lived there. 

5 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

The end of the ECMWF AI run confirms what you are saying.    Seems like ridging over there is the default now despite short periods of deep troughing.

Very bad omen. Niño winters that end warm are almost always followed by horrible summers out this way. I was hoping for a 1958-like base state evolution (still theoretically possible) but it seems the IPWP extension will wait another year.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Post-strong niño summers have the highest frequency of derecho activity and overall severe weather activity across western Appalachia. And a longer convective season too. Yeah I’d be bullish if I lived there. 

Very bad omen. Niño winters that end warm are almost always followed by horrible summers out this way. I was hoping for a 1958-like base state evolution (still theoretically possible) but it seems the IPWP extension will wait another year.

Strong Nina or weak Nina incoming?  

[Phil]

On 3/7/2024 at 8:20 PM, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, and the 1957 Nino reset things somewhat after a 9 year stretch where we were constantly in the default trough position in the winter.  Even 1952-53 acted very traditionally -PDO and had record January cold in AK that almost spilled down here (think 2019-20).

We're coming up on 9 years of a similar, albeit toned down version of the same thing. But interestingly the big Nino didn't seem to shake things up much. Would be ironic if a giant Nina this year did, but odds are it probably won't.

It’s often not apparent how a strong niño has shaken up the base state until after it concludes.

The 2015/16 niño did perturb the base state but it didn’t reflect in the pattern until winter 2016/17 onwards. The effects of the 1997/98 niño also didn’t manifest cleanly until autumn 1998.

[Phil]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Strong Nina or weak Nina incoming?  

I don’t know yet. Hopefully weak niña/cold neutral.

Timing of +QBO descent suggests stronger niña but the residual element of +IOD/cooler E-IO (should it continue) would point to a weaker event. A stronger single year niña like 1988/89 followed by an intradecadal absence of niña activity as seen then is also possible.

That IPWP extension will happen relatively soon, at which point +ENSO will dominate over -ENSO for 5-8 years. But probably not this year. I was initially optimistic it would occur this year, but in hindsight it makes sense it wouldn’t occur following an EPAC emergent niño and descent westerly shear.

[BLI snowman]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Interesting.

 

Lots of simplistic and dumb things there, but one thing that jumped out to me was the comparing of the Ketchikan/Prince Rupert area to Germany. Very odd.

Ketchikan is fully oceanic and averages 150" of precip per year and the wettest parts of Germany are humid continental climates that average 50-60" down towards the foothills of the Alps.

The coastline of Norway (near and north of Bergen) is a very good comparison to the Ketchikan and Prince Rupert areas.

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Lots of simplistic and dumb things there, but one thing that jumped out to me was the comparing of the Ketchikan/Prince Rupert area to Germany. Very odd.

Ketchikan is fully oceanic and averages 150" of precip per year and the wettest parts of Germany are humid continental climates that average 50-60" down towards the foothills of the Alps.

The coastline of Norway (near and north of Bergen) is a very good comparison to the Ketchikan and Prince Rupert areas.

I think they only looked at the seasonality in temps/precip and nothing beyond that. Because SW US precip seasonality (double sine wave) is actually inverted from the middle eastern countries listed.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF does not look like its going the retrogression route at the end of the run.

 

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

That big lobe of high pressure just south of AK could do it though.

With a big MJO wave in play I can't imagine the ridge staying in one place for too long.

The 12z EURO AI shows that after the initial ridge, another ridge builds in after it. There is no sign of retrogression and  at day 15 it looks like an atmospheric river is on the way.

 

[ShawniganLake]

29 minutes ago, Phil said:

Post-strong niño summers have the highest frequency of derecho activity and overall severe weather activity across western Appalachia. And a longer convective season too. Yeah I’d be bullish if I lived there. 

Very bad omen. Niño winters that end warm are almost always followed by horrible summers out this way. I was hoping for a 1958-like base state evolution (still theoretically possible) but it seems the IPWP extension will wait another year.

Summer of 1958 was just a touch on the warm side out west.  

[Phil]

25 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Summer of 1958 was just a touch on the warm side out west.  

I’d love to repeat that summer. Basically mid-80s and thunderstorms the whole way through. Only 15 days at/above 90°F that entire year.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

At this point I think the chances are pretty good we will get into a deep trough again during the later part of the month.  We are in an amplified regime and the chances of a ridge staying put for more than a week are very low with big MJO wave in play right now.  As the wave moves the forcing it causes in the mid latitudes will move as well.

As for next winter....it's actually more likely than not it will be amplified based on recent trends alone.  Some decades are simply more amplified than others and this one is up there in the blocking department.  Add to that the fact we will probably have a Nina going with positive QBO, and you have a good likelihood the blocking will be in favorable locations for us.  Big Nino to Nina transition is yet another thing our favor.  This decade is on track to be a really good one for us overall.

Aside from the vomit worthy late-April to early September periods, I would agree with this assessment.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

52F with some showers.

[Omegaraptor]

Hail!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Post-strong niño summers have the highest frequency of derecho activity and overall severe weather activity across western Appalachia. And a longer convective season too. Yeah I’d be bullish if I lived there. 

Very bad omen. Niño winters that end warm are almost always followed by horrible summers out this way. I was hoping for a 1958-like base state evolution (still theoretically possible) but it seems the IPWP extension will wait another year.

We had to deal with a permanent west coast ridge for most of the past decade. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

 

The 12z EURO AI shows that after the initial ridge, another ridge builds in after it. There is no sign of retrogression and  at day 15 it looks like an atmospheric river is on the way.

 

Lots of rain could also be a blessing. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 38. Brrrrr

[bainbridgekid]

Hailing while the sun shines here. Dynamic.

[the_convergence_zone]

Impressive little storm blowing through. Strong gusty winds and pea sized hail. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Heard a clap of thunder about 20 minutes ago during a heavy rain squall.

[RentonHill]

Wicked windy out there mates 

[Slushy Inch]

Squalls have very strong winds today. Got hit directly finally, going to have a nice video to post.

[Cold Snap]

Currently getting some Hail here. Also looks like there was some lightning over Seattle a few minutes ago.

[Cold Snap]

[Requiem]

A southerly PDX gust over 40??? I must be seeing things.

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Downright Oklahoma-esque!!! And people say we don’t get good fronts here….

[Slushy Inch]

9 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Downright Oklahoma-esque!!! And people say we don’t get good fronts here….

Was that a front though?

[Deweydog]

SW 33g47 at PDX!