January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[BLI snowman]

Climo's a b*tch!

[Phil]

11 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Euro is actually caving.

Of course this is one time the Euro caves. Never happens in the other direction when it’s being all Dr. No while the GFS is tripping.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

Climo's a b*tch!

I don't get it, you do know Seattle has an annual average snowfall? That's climatology too.

[wxmet]

Ah the meltdown. Forget to get popcorn at the grocery store for this earlier. Want snow? Move.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

It's a pretty epic cave for the ECMWF. 

It’s a random fluctuation in a model run. What’s new? It could flip back, or it could stay. There’s actually no way to tell. No reason to make rash statements either way.

Besides, the EPS is much more useful than the operational member on its own.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Of course this is one time the Euro caves. Never happens in the other direction when it’s being all Dr. No while the GFS is tripping.

^ Out of tradition the GFS will probably flip to the 12z Euro solution at some point over the next few days.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It’s a random fluctuation in a model run. What’s new? It could flip back, or it could stay. There’s actually no way to tell. No reason to make rash statements either way.

Besides, the EPS is much more useful than the operational member on its own.

It could flip back.   But it is a big change for the ECMWF which had been consistent.   Obviously it's not good news right now and people are going to express that sentiment. 

[BLI snowman]

Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said:

I don't get it, you do know Seattle has an annual average snowfall? That's climatology too.

Yes, a decreasing average that is comprised of rare hits and frequent misses. The median snowfall since 2000 is pretty far down there. And the coldest airmasses will always tend to go east.

That being said, this winter sucks even against any standard of climo. But duds like this are still built into our averages.

[wxmet]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

^ Out of tradition the GFS will probably flip to the 12z Euro solution at some point over the next few days.

Must be nice watching this while you’re waiting for a winter storm

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

^ Out of tradition the GFS will probably flip to the 12z Euro solution at some point over the next few days.

That is exactly what I was just thinking!

[GeorgeWx]

10 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

This is just painful....

Painfully cold for the Rockies and Great Plains 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS doesn't get the credit it deserves. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, GeorgeWx said:

Painfully cold for the Rockies and Great Plains 

They deserve this. So happy 4 them.

[TacomaWaWx]

Lol well if it doesn’t snow... we will be extra due next winter. Still have faith in something next month always gotta keep the faith. 

[Winterdog]

At least  the goods never got within 8 days.  Think how much worse it would have been had the collapse been within 3 days.  I’m sure Jim will be on later to scold us all and offer us reasons why it’s absurd to be so negative.

[TacomaWaWx]

Nice thing about the PNW is there’s always snow up in the mountains to get a snow fix. Always special to get snow at your house but it’s never really too far away to go see some. Hopefully it works out still 30 days until March lots of time. 

[Omegaraptor]

32 minutes ago, Phil said:

I admit I’m somewhat surprised you guys haven’t scored something yet, given how blocked up the Pacific (and NH in general) has been over the last 4 weeks. At least some of it boils down to unlucky timing of the intraseasonal cycle w/ respect to the seasonal evolution of the low pass state.

The western Portland metro will not score so long as I live here. As soon as I move out, it will get absolutely buried. Thank me when it happens.

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, wxmet said:

Must be nice watching this while you’re waiting for a winter storm

Not really. I don’t derive joy from others’ misfortune (except Tim during the summer on occasion..lol). Plus I’m gonna be the piñata people take their frustrations out on after being so bullish on this winter. So..

BTW, this storm is probably going to underperform here. Comma head keeps trending north into PA so there’s a good chance we only get 4-5”. Just an average snow.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS doesn't get the credit it deserves. 

Sometimes it’s good for more than just 348 hour 850mb temp maps.

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

They deserve this. So happy 4 them.

Kayla still gets cold.

[wxmet]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Not really. I don’t derive joy from others’ misfortune (except Tim during the summer on occasion..lol). Plus I’m gonna be the piñata people take their frustrations out on after being so bullish on this winter. So..

BTW, this storm is probably going to underperform here. Comma head keeps trending north into PA so there’s a good chance we only get 4-5”. Just an average snow.

Imagine what people in the PNW would do for “only 4-5””

[Gradient Keeper]

Seems the MJO phase is more important than a SSWE

[RentonHill]

Well this blows. I didn’t even tell anyone this time!

I’ve been stuck in twIn case anyone needs a quick PNW snow fix...I’m stuck up in twisp so I can be here to plow tomorrow and Monday.

[Phil]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Seems the MJO phase is more important than a SSWE

I’m not sure they can be separated in this case. Unfortunate timing of higher frequency waves and in-situ regime of AAM transfer/propagation are probably factors. 

[Jesse]

12 minutes ago, GeorgeWx said:

Painfully cold for the Rockies and Great Plains 

1969 redux still on?

[Cloud]

The Euro and GFS 0z op runs finally agree. Near identical 850 anomalies from start to finish in shunting the cold air east of the Rockies onto the plains and finally east. One of those rare occasions, they're gonna go back to not agreeing in a few hours. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Writing a paper rn and decided to make a low rent edit

[AbbyJr]

30 minutes ago, Phil said:

Of course this is one time the Euro caves. Never happens in the other direction when it’s being all Dr. No while the GFS is tripping.

As long as the EPS is on board, I am. No reason to doubt one of the most reliable models, especially during a time of model chaos.

Personally, with all the flip flopping going in the models, its surprising that people are so easily swayed back and forth between winter on and winter cancel.

[seattleweatherguy]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m not sure they can be separated in this case. Unfortunate timing of higher frequency waves and in-situ regime of AAM transfer/propagation are probably factors. 

Winter over?

[TT-SEA]

00Z EPS might be following suit... the 00Z run looks quite a bit different than the 12Z run by the end of the week.

New 00Z run on top... the 12Z run on the bottom.

 

[SalemDuck]

12 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m not sure they can be separated in this case. Unfortunate timing of higher frequency waves and in-situ regime of AAM transfer/propagation are probably factors. 

So is this over for us or could it be a one run blip?

[Gradient Keeper]

Well, my annual pilgrimage to the forum every Fall and then subsequent departure once Winter ends may be on the horizon... Maybe..... It did snow last March though, right? ....

[TT-SEA]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Well, my annual pilgrimage to the forum every Fall and then subsequent departure once Winter ends may be on the horizon... Maybe..... It did snow last March though, right? ....

Its January 30th... you have to stay for at least 2 more months! 

[Jesse]

At least PDX stayed in the 40s today.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Its January 30th... you have to stay for at least 2 more months! 

That nearly sounds like kidnapping!

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Well, my annual pilgrimage to the forum every Fall and then subsequent departure once Winter ends may be on the horizon... Maybe..... It did snow last March though, right? ....

This is quite normal for you but somehow reading this was incredibly sad. 

[Requiem]

It really does pay to live on the east coast, I swear.

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

So is this over for us or could it be a one run blip?

I’m not on the winter cancel train. There is nothing of the low frequency variety to suggest winter is over.

That doesn’t mean it won’t inevitably be a dud. But this is not like 2019/20, where it was an obvious train wreck after things went to hell Jan 5-10 (though I didn’t see that coming until the last minute, so take my words for what little they’re worth).

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, hawkstwelve said:

Oh yeah and we lost the EPS control model too. In case there was any doubt. 

D*mn

[Kolk1604]

What about day 10? It's trying right?