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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


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26 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

The January thread is off to a good start. 

 

What's your favorite ice cream flavor?

Rocky Road.  And I still believe we will have a great winter.  People put so much faith in long range models when the effects of the SSW aren't even projected to show yet.  And isn't the winter supposed to be backloaded anyway?! All stuff that has already been said, I know. But really, I'm not giving up.

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Some pics on the way up to my property.  The ones on the road are 1/4 mile down the road and the gate is the beginning of my 120 acre land.

I SEE FLAKES! WE DID IT!  I would like to thank every single poster and lurker on this board for working so hard this winter. Everyone gave it their all and it ended up with Tigard getting their

Posted Images

Onto our 3rd page and its not even noon on the first day of the month!   

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12Z ECMWF actually shows generally dry weather from Friday through Sunday of next week.   That would be nice.

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I struggled with what to do for my first post of 2021, but in light of this year’s early developments I decided to go with a random puppy and/or puppies pic.

image.jpeg.e56b376d0d63f0ca4aa244231b7d41ce.jpeg
 

These may continue until global statistical models improve.  I will strategically avoid puppies playing in snow or intensely warmed stratospheric conditions.

This little guy’s name is Jet Retraction. They call him Jetret for short.

Happy New Year!!!🥰🥰🥰

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

By the way, during some interactions on social media yesterday, Mark Nelsen indicated he agreed 100% with my thoughts on the winter so far and what the models are showing. FWIW.

So winter canceled from even Mark himself. I don’t even know why I keep the forum up. We’re probably not going to see snow this winter, and the heat death of the universe might be the only time Seattle will get a high below freezing for more than a day or two.

You’re right Andrew, unless we get some good cold zonal for our friends at decent elevations, then there is no point. Life has lost meaning and we are measly organisms looking to eat and shit our way through existence until extinguished. 

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52F and cloudy but dry right now. Got down to a bone-chilling 48F on this Juneuary morning.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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4 minutes ago, iFred said:

So winter canceled from even Mark himself. I don’t even know why I keep the forum up. We’re probably not going to see snow this winter, and the heat death of the universe might be the only time Seattle will get a high below freezing for more than a day or two.

You’re right Andrew, unless we get some good cold zonal for our friends at decent elevations, then there is no point. Life has lost meaning and we are measly organisms looking to eat and our way through existence until extinguished. 

I would just like Eugene to have a sub freezing high.

  • Snow 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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7 minutes ago, iFred said:

So winter canceled from even Mark himself. I don’t even know why I keep the forum up. We’re probably not going to see snow this winter, and the heat death of the universe might be the only time Seattle will get a high below freezing for more than a day or two.

You’re right Andrew, unless we get some good cold zonal for our friends at decent elevations, then there is no point. Life has lost meaning and we are measly organisms looking to eat and our way through existence until extinguished. 

We are like snowflakes in the PNW. We have various structures and identities but we always melt when the southerlies arrive and eventually become one with the ocean....

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I would just like Eugene to have a sub freezing high.

Seriously. This stretch just feels like what our normal winter weather is now. Way warm and no chance of seeing a significant Dec-Jan event ever again down this way. It’s getting to the point where I’m just resigned to the fact that I’m not going to experience another one until our family moves one day.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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SEA finished December 3.8 degrees above normal and 1.30 inches wetter than normal.

Bellingham was +3.9 and +2.60 for December.

Also... SEA finished 2020 with 41.32 inches of rain which is almost 4 inches above normal.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Another interesting stat as we embark on a new year... SEA was just about 35 inches above normal for rainfall for the 2010-2020 period.   Wet!  

 

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About the only positive I can think of over the next 10 days is we should be putting a dent in our drought conditions at least. But the burn scar areas could have it pretty rough.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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The new 12Z EPS looks just as ugly at day 15 and does not seem to be even trying to go in a better direction.    This seems like it might be similar to the Nina period from 1998-2001.

Maybe a flip in February can save it.  

 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-0798400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-0798400.png

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16 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Seriously. This stretch just feels like what our normal winter weather is now. Way warm and no chance of seeing a significant Dec-Jan event ever again down this way. It’s getting to the point where I’m just resigned to the fact that I’m not going to experience another one until our family moves one day.

We are operating on the same wavelengths my brother. Totally agree. This feels exactly like this point the last few winters. At some point things may or may not improve. I was just telling someone I actually really enjoyed February and March last year. Coolish, some nice sunny days and about one decent snowfall a week. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The new 12Z EPS looks just as ugly at day 15 and does not seem to be even trying to go in a better direction.    This seems like it might be similar to the Nina period from 1998-2001.

Maybe a flip in February can save it.  

 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-0798400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-0798400.png

Times like this I really appreciate you. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Times like this I really appreciate you. 

I actually had somewhat high hopes for January after a warm December... and would much rather have arctic air and snow right now than rain every day.  

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15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The new 12Z EPS looks just as ugly at day 15 and does not seem to be even trying to go in a better direction.    This seems like it might be similar to the Nina period from 1998-2001.

Maybe a flip in February can save it.  

 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-0798400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-0798400.png

Jet begins to retract starting around day 13 but you’re right it’s pretty ugly at day 15

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53 here in a drenching drizzle.  .03" on the day.  With Jim's predictable absence it looks like we pretty much all agree that January looks like it may not be a top tier cold and snowy month.  I'm preparing my much neglected drainage system for a lot of water over the next couple weeks.  My shop flooded the last heavy rain event just prior to our delightful little snow storm and I would like to avoid that again.  I hope you all have an ever increasingly happy new year.

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5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

🌧🌧

E0493B89-1BA6-4795-B1B7-990A68CD832F.png

No doubt this is releated to the recent extremely wet decade being added to the averages.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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And you wonder how much warmer and drier the averages will be for down this way esp with these last few north/south precip years.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

And you wonder how much warmer and drier the averages will be for down this way esp with these last few north/south precip years.

For PDX January-March got slightly cooler, all other months warmer. The 80s were actually a fairly dry decade regionally IIRC. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Looks amazing! How much snow does that area get annually?

Between 60 and 120 inches. There is 21 inches on the ground right now. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Looking at Salem, average annual precipitation 2011-2020 was 39.07". Average for period of record 1892-present is 39.26, 1981-2010 average was 39.67. 

2012 was the 4th wettest year on record at SLE, 2013 was the driest on record. 5 years were above average (2012,14,15,16,17), 5 below (2011,13,18,19,20). 

1981-1990 averaged 37.89" annually at SLE, so the new averages should be slightly wetter. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

I'm guessing much of what falls there ends up sticking around for the winter too. Time to open a winter retreat for winter-starved forum members 😂

In December and January it only gets above freezing a few days. Pretty common to be below freezing all of January.  

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Salem went a full decade ,1985-1994 without recording more than 40" of annual precip. So we have had it far worse. Here is the last decade. 

2011: 35.88

2012: 55.37

2013: 23.59

2014: 41.56

2015: 40.67

2016: 47.01

2017: 50.91

2018: 31.02

2019: 30.86

2020: 33.78

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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so much negativity here today, wow!

tomorrow the good stuff could show up at day 6 or 9 or 10

sometimes it's like a switch gets flipped, well, the switch will get flipped and soon

we are due and it's a lock

this is a Nina *******, it will deliver

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Just read the year end write up from the NWS for Salem. 19th warmest year on record (Could have been a lot worse!), 4 record max min's, but no record highs. One record low. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just read the year end write up from the NWS for Salem. 19th warmest year on record (Could have been a lot worse!), 4 record max min's, but no record highs. One record low. 

The smoky skies may have helped drop them a spot or two.🥰

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

The smoky skies may have helped drop them a spot or two.🥰

September was only the 13th warmest on record there. Warmest year relative to average was January which came in at 5th warmest. Coldest month was March which came in at 42nd coldest March on record. lol

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA finished December 3.8 degrees above normal and 1.30 inches wetter than normal.

Bellingham was +3.9 and +2.60 for December.

Also... SEA finished 2020 with 41.32 inches of rain which is almost 4 inches above normal.

How many runways are at KBLI?

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Furrrst 18z of the rest of our lives is running!!!

image.jpeg.b8081dbf817b6feb8ce5a14255de4a7b.jpeg

Who could hate an 18z that looks like that!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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12 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

That being said I've watched the majority of Ventrice's very informative video and if the composites he's based his predictions off of are any sign, we shouldn't start to see a flip in the models for at least a few more days. 7 days after the SSW is when the -EPO should just be starting to emerge. 14 days after and an expansive West Canadian cold pool could develop. 

Awesome video by the way. Thanks to whoever shared that. Learned quite a bit about SSWs and their potential impacts, let alone the patterns that are precursors to them... the much-lamented Aleutian vortex being one for Siberian-based SSWs.

Seems counter intuitive that we always root against a pattern that is a conduit for a favorable SSW. But, alas, we must not relent - bad Aleutian low!!!

I am baffled by how many people are cancelling winter based on the current models, when in fact there is still a SSW in progress. Its been mentioned numerous times that what we are seeing in the models is totally consistent with a Siberian SSW event, and that these events typically favour arctic air in PNW 2-3 weeks after completion of the warming.

There is simply no way to know the final outcome of the SSW this early. We need to wait for it to complete for more details.

Perhaps the lack of long range fantasy runs as of recent is getting people concerned. I'm not concerned until February 1st with nothing good showing up in the models.

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2 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

I am baffled by how many people are cancelling winter based on the current models, when in fact there is still a SSW in progress. Its been mentioned numerous times that what we are seeing in the models is totally consistent with a Siberian SSW event, and that these events typically favour arctic air in PNW 2-3 weeks after completion of the warming.

There is simply no way to know the final outcome of the SSW this early. We need to wait for it to complete for more details.

Perhaps the lack of long range fantasy runs as of recent is getting people concerned. I'm not concerned until February 1st with nothing good showing up in the models.

We have another brand new member of the forum here.

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Moving the sheep to their spring pasture for a few weeks. Given the grass has not gone dormant this winter, I am hoping to get some more growth on the winter pasture, move them back up there by the end of January, and save a few $$$ on supplemental feed. The silver lining of an exceptionally mild winter. 

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  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I would counter that I just comment on what the models are actually showing. He comments on what he wants them to show and projects it. A lot of people do that in the "weather community." People who objectively assess the situation are often labeled as "negative." Because that is the climate we live in. Then there are folks like you who do not like to analyze models or make predictions, preferring to take shots at those who want to engage in substantive discussion. Almost 42,000 posts of banality. I accept your apology however, new year, new leaf. 

Long range models are not realism, though.

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Low. Solar.

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